The United Nations Security Council has released a report concerning the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Da’esh), Al-Qaida and associated individuals, groups, undertakings and entities addressed to the President of the Security Council.
The report says: “Al-Qaida senior leadership enjoyed a more settled period in early 2022. Aiman Muhammed Rabi al-Zawahiri issued regular video messages that provided almost current proof of life. Member States note that al-Zawahiri’s apparent increased comfort and ability to communicate has coincided with the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan and the consolidation of power of key Al-Qaida allies within their de facto administration. Al-Qaida is not viewed as posing an immediate international threat from its safe haven in Afghanistan because it lacks an external operational capability and does not currently wish to cause the Taliban international difficulty or embarrassment.”
Meaning that Zawahiri is most likely pursuing a more ceremonial role as the “father of international jihad”, which Al-Qaeda has traditionally enjoyed since the early 90s. This increased cooperation with the Taliban will provide overhead cover as Zawahiri is most likely camped on the Afghan-Pakistan border with about 350 loyal fighters. His release of promotional videos and content and his delicate relationship with the Taliban will most likely restrict his ability to directly develop and lead attacks in countries external to the country.
The report says as much: “The international context is favourable to Al-Qaida, which intends to be recognized again as the leader of global jihad. Al-Qaida propaganda is now better developed to compete with ISIL as the key actor in inspiring the international threat environment, and it may ultimately become a greater source of directed threat. According to one Member State, the Hittin Committee, which coordinates Al-Qaida global leadership, has demoted Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula below the African affiliates. Next in line of seniority after al-Zawahiri are: Sayf-al ‘Adl, Abdal-Rahman al-Maghrebi; Yazid Mebrak of Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Ahmed Diriye of Al-Shabaab.”
As long as the Taliban continue to allow FTOs to operate in Afghanistan, while they have told the international community they will not, these organizations will continue to grow and refine their propaganda and doctrine, leading up to another major attack.
