Scarborough Shoal Incident Shows China’s Willingness to Aggressively Protect Exercises

On August 10th, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) released a statement about a mishap between the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and Philippine Air Force (PAF) at the Scarborough Shoal on August 8th. The incident occurred after the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) Southern Theater Command (STC) announced they would conduct a joint patrol at the shoal on August 7th..August 8th Incident and Philippines' Reaction.The incident began at 9:00 a.m. local time when a PAF NC-212i light transport aircraft conducted "a routine maritime patrol over Bajo de Masinloc [Scarborough Shoal]." Two PLAAF J-11B Flanker-L multirole jets intercepted and "executed a dangerous maneuver" and dropped eight flares in the NC-212i's flightpath..The 212i's crew was unharmed and safely returned to Clark Air Base by 10:00 am local time. AFP Chief of Staff, General Romeo Brawner Jr., said the PLAAF's dangerous and provocative actions "endangered the lives of our personnel undertaking maritime security operations recently within Philippine maritime zones.".Brawner said the "incident posted a threat" to the PAF aircraft and crew, interfered with lawful flight operations in Philippine sovereign airspace that it has jurisdiction over, as well as "contravened international law and regulations" governing aviation safety. He said that the AFP "reported the incident to the Department of Foreign Affairs and relevant government agencies.".The General said the AFP reaffirmed their commitment to exercise their rights according to international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the Chicago Convention..On August 11th, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. issued a statement condemning the incident at Scarborough Shoal. Marcos denounced the J-11's unjustified, illegal, and reckless actions that almost caused the collision with the NC-212i during a maritime security operation over Scarborough Shoal. He highlighted the challenge that the AFP faces when "calming the waters and concern over the instability in Philippine airspace." The President reiterated that the Philippines is "committed to proper diplomacy and peaceful means of resolving disputes, but China should demonstrate full capability" to act responsibly in the seas and the skies..China's Reaction.China's Ministry of National Defense (MND) and the PLA's STC released the same statement about the incident on August 10th. The statement said that a PAG NC-212i illegally broke into the airspace of Huangyan Island [Scarborough Shoal] in the South China Sea (SCS) and interfered with China's normal training activities despite repeated warnings. The STC organized its air and naval forces to conduct identification, tracking, and surveillance of the NC-212i and issued eviction warnings to the aircraft in accordance with the law..The statement said that the "on-site operation was professional and lawful." The STC urged "the Philippines to immediately stop the provocation of infringement and distorted hype." The statement reiterated that China "has indisputable sovereignty over Huangyan Island [Scarborough Shoal] and its adjacent waters." The STC said its soldiers are on high alert at all times, resolutely defend national sovereignty and security, and resolutely safeguard peace and stability in the SCS..August 8th Incident Shows PLA's Increased Willingness to Aggressively Defend Exercises and Pressure the Philippines.The August 8th incident shows the PLA's willingness to use aggressive actions to prevent countries from surveilling or monitoring their exercises. The incident allows China to increase the pressure on the Philippines over the Scarborough Shoal. The incident between the PLAAF J-11Bs and the PAF NC-212i occurred one day after the STC announced they would conduct air and naval patrols near Scarborough Shoal to test various units' "joint strike capabilities" on August 7th. China announced the joint exercise as a response to the Philippines' announcement that it will conduct Multilateral Maritime Cooperative Activity (MMCA) with Australia, Canada, and the United States in its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) on the same day. The STC exercise was meant to show the Philippines and the other countries that China was not intimidated by the MMCA. The command held the exercise at Scarborough Shoal to further illustrate that China is not intimidated by the joint exercise..The PAF sent the NC-212i to the shoal to monitor the disputed area and the ongoing STC exercise. The STC, however, responded in an aggressive manner because they do not want other countries to fly or sail close to the area to monitor the exercise. The August 8th incident is not the first time that the PLA dropped flares or conducted aggressive actions against foreign vessels that were near exercise areas. In May 2024, a PLAAF J-10C conducted similar maneuvers against a Royal Australian Navy MH-60R Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) helicopter when it was operating near a People's Liberation Army Navy exercise. China sought to prevent the MH-60R from getting close to the exercise area where it can monitor the exercise using optical and electronic sensors. China's aggressive actions point to the PLA's increased willingness to conduct dangerous maneuvers to stop aircraft from monitoring its exercises, despite the risk of an accident occurring between the aircraft. It shows that China accepts the risk of accidents occurring if it can prevent foreign countries from monitoring its exercises..China viewed the incident as having the added benefit of increasing the pressure on the Philippines regarding the Scarborough Shoal and the SCS dispute. The PAF will send the NC-212is and other light transport aircraft on reconnaissance flights to monitor the area surrounding Scarborough Shoal. The flights also serve as another means to enforce the Philippines' sovereignty over the area. China, however, understands the aims of these flights and now seeks to disrupt them to prevent the Philippines from continuing the missions..They had an increased incentive to disrupt the flights because of the July 17th agreement regarding resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal. The agreement meant that China had to respond to the Philippines to show the country that the agreement does not change the status quo in the SCS. China chose Scarborough Shoal because of the lower tensions found there compared to other locations in the SCS, such as Sabina Shoal. The incident also serves as a warning to the Philippines because China showed its willingness to conduct aggressive actions during joint exercises with Australia and the United States.