What You Need to Know

Following the rocket barrage, three suicide bombers detonated their explosives from inside their vehicles at Ber Camp. Approximately an hour after the launch of the offensive, an L-39C Albatros jet—likely donated to the Malian junta by Russia—arrived in the area, forcing the militants to retreat.

The bombers named by JNIM in a statement after the attack were Abou Omar al-Foulani, Jalal Addine al-Tarki, and Idriss al-Tarki.

The press service of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), of which Mali currently holds the rotating presidency, is yet to release a statement on the attack.

Unconfirmed reports point towards the departure of FAMA reinforcements from Timbuktu to Ber camp, which lies just 30 miles from the regional capital, with one source stating, "the damage is enormous, and the camp is in flames." Despite this, images of the claimed damage are yet to be released.

The Details

Making use of the reduced number of skilled personnel stationed at the nation's military installations, JNIM's latest attack illustrates the group's capabilities, particularly in the aftermath of the group's attack on the capital late last month, which left 70 dead. With a large portion of the Russian mercenaries and FAMA officers in the country currently making their way towards the Tuareg stronghold of Tinzaouaten in the north, the risk of attack on military installations is high.

The convoy en route to Tinzaouaten, which departed on September 30th and was bolstered by members of the Groupe d’Autodéfense Tuareg Imghad et Alliés (GATIA), a Tuareg-majority pro-junta armed group, has still failed to reach the commune, which lies just over 200 miles from their departure points of Tessalit and Kidal.

Concerns regarding the chosen route towards the commune have been identified as a key limiting factor, as both Russian and Malian personnel fear falling into an ambush similar to the one experienced in late July, which left 87 Russian mercenaries and 50 FAMA dead.

As such, the convoy has avoided the areas valleys but has struggled with the loss of several vehicles to thick sand as a result. Furthermore, limited supplies forced the convoy to remain at Inakarot for three days while awaiting goods from a supply helicopter. Additionally, and according to Tuareg separatist sources, the convoy has changed routes multiple times as it inches closer to the commune, with one source claiming the convoy was "moving in circles."

The slow advance has enabled scores of Tuareg rebels from neighboring regions to gather at the commune, including key commanders of the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), a group that made major gains against the Malian government in 2012.

"With the MNLA commanders came at least 50 armored vehicles," one source said.

So, What Now?

The second JNIM attack in two weeks on major military infrastructure signals the group's growing strength and capabilities as well as the FAMA's diminishing capabilities. Choosing to focus their efforts on the strategically insignificant Tinzaouaten in an attempt to regain lost face, the FAMA has left itself weak in key areas, with many of the country's Russian mercenaries heading towards Tinzaouaten to gather the bodies of their dead comrades. It is likely Islamic militant attacks will increase as the convoy inches closer to Tinzaouaten, leaving the nation in the rear relatively unguarded.

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