While testifying in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee, United States Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines gave some key insights into what American intelligence believes is going on with Russia’s game plan with its invasion of Ukraine.
Haines stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a “prolonged conflict” in Ukraine and that intelligence suggests that he still intends on achieving set out tactical objectives past the capture of Donbas, such as securing large swaths of southern Ukraine and creating a land bridge to the Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria. She added that if Russia is to capture Donbas, it won’t likely end the war and Putin is hoping for Western support to fade before trying to tackle these objectives, which could take months or even years. Haines testified that “Putin most likely also judges that Russia has a greater ability and willingness to endure challenges than his adversaries, and he is probably counting on U.S. and EU resolve to weaken as food shortages, inflation, and energy prices get worse.”
Haines added that Russia may take more “drastic” measures to aid Russia’s war effort as the conflict is starting to become a “stalemate.”
“The current trend increases the likelihood that President Putin will turn to more drastic means, including imposing martial law, reorienting industrial production, or potentially escalatory military options to free up the resources needed to achieve his objectives,” she said, adding that “Combined with the reality that Putin faces a mismatch between his ambitions and Russia’s current conventional military capabilities, [this] likely means the next few months could see us moving along a more unpredictable and potentially escalatory trajectory.”
Haines also clarified that the United States believes it is unlikely that Russia will deploy nuclear weapons in this conflict, but stated that they could be if Russia feels there is an “existential” threat to the Motherland.
Lastly, she said that the United States does not believe Russia’s invasion will accelerate China’s plans to invade Taiwan. This comes, however, as Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns stated that “Chinese leadership is looking very carefully at all this — at the costs and consequences of any effort to use force to gain control over Taiwan.” Burns also said that “I don’t for a minute think that this has eroded Xi’s determination over time to gain control over Taiwan,” adding, “I think it’s something that’s affecting their calculation about how and when they go about doing that.”
Overall, Haines’ testimony does not bring in much new insight and aligns with public statements already made by Russian officials. In April, Deputy commander of Russia’s central military district, Rustam Minnekayev, announced that Russia’s primary military objective now is “establishing total control of the Donbas and southern Ukraine,” which will focus on cutting off Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and establishing a land route to the breakaway state of Transnistria. Haine’s testimony does show, however, that Russia is willing to divert more resources and play the long game to achieve this.
Likewise, Haines’ statements mirror what has already been stated by Russian. During an interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour on May 22, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia will use nuclear weapons if it faces what it considers an “existential threat” to its existence. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexei Zaitsev has also stated that Russia has no intentions of using nuclear weapons during the conflict. The Russian media has been hyping up nukes a lot recently. Last week, Russian state-media figure Dmitry Kiselyov suggested using a thermonuclear torpedo to destroy the United KIngdom with a radioactive tsunami in response to their continued support of Ukraine in the conflict.
