As this publication reported on November 19th, the Turkish Air Force launched Operation CLAW SWORD AIR, which, according to the Turks, involved about fifty F-16s and twenty TB-2 Bayraktars. These aircraft conducted more than 70 strikes which the Turks estimate killed 184 people including members of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Syrian Armed Forces, and their proxies.
However, since those strikes, both targeted parties have conducted dozens of retaliatory indirect fire attacks against targets in Turkey and its forces in Syria. This response has reportedly caused Turkish Ground Forces to mobilize and move towards the Syrian border. According to Turkish media, the Syrian National Army, which is the Turkish-backed militant group in the Syrian Civil War, has moved anywhere from 5,000-10,000 troops into position to attack SDF positions throughout Syria, especially near Tall Rif’at. President Erdogan has also signaled that he is prepared to mobilize troops from Turkey proper to cross into Syria near Coalition-held areas such as Kobani. Several border guard positions have been shifted in this area as air operations hit the city.
The escalation began after the SDF press reported that they would “respond in a strong and effective way at an appropriate time and place”. After that 0642 EST announcement on 20NOV22, two hours later, SDF forces targeted Turkish positions with artillery in Bab al-Salamah in Aleppo Governate. At the time time, Syrian Armed Forces began to target Turkish forces, also in Aleppo Governate. However, by 0925 EST, artillery shells began to fall on Turkish soil.
The first shells targeted Turkish military positions at a border gate area in Kilis, Turkey, injuring two special forces operators and several border security agents. Then by 1000, Syrian Armed Forces began to shell Turkish positions at their base in Dabiq, Syria. Throughout the day on the 20th, the Turks sustained light casualties as SDF forces began to shell Gaziantep, Turkey, a major city and capital of the Gaziantep Province, in the westernmost part of Turkey’s Southeastern Anatolia Region and partially in the Mediterranean Region.
On 21NOV22, the U.S. State Department urged all sides to reach an agreement and opposed any uncoordinated action on Iraqi soil that would violate that country’s sovereignty, a stance echoed by the Iraqi Parliament.
U.S. Central Command and the U.S.-led coalition Operation Inherent Resolve also strongly urged the Turkish government to de-escalate tensions as both sides continued artillery bombardment in Aleppo Governate and over the Turkish border. However, intermittent back-and-forth shelling proceeded throughout the day with the heaviest being near Tel Rifat.
?YEN? — Türk Silahl? Kuvvetleri, Tel R?fat bölgesindeki terör mevzilerini vuruyor.
– Yerel kaynaklar – pic.twitter.com/2mOcyM5kDu
— Bedrettin (@bedbolukbasi) November 22, 2022
As of writing this post, SDF artillery shells have fallen in Turkish-controlled Azaz, Syria, and have injured several civilians. It is not clear if or when the Turks will launch a renewed ground offensive, but at this rate, the severity and frequency of cross-border shelling between the three factions will increase to levels where de-escalation will be difficult.
