Venezuelan Opposition Promises Victory in Deadlocked Fight For Nation’s Future

Former opposition presidential candidate Enrique Márquez requested that Venezuela's Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ) investigate the country's National Electoral Council (CNE) on Friday regarding President Nicolas Maduro's victory in the nation's presidential election on July 28. This request follows a heavily contested election between Maduro and the presidential candidate of the opposition alliance known as the Unitary Platform, Edmundo González Urrutia..Tensions Increase Following Maduro's Victory.Since Maduro's announced victory in the election, dozens of nations, international organizations, and political parties within Venezuela have denounced his claim to victory. Prior to the announcement, news of an opposition victory had quickly spread across Venezuela as polling station after polling station announced the candidate's victory. These reported victories compounded with an exit poll conducted by Edison Research, an American market research and polling company that has conducted exit polls internationally, which predicted González to win with 65 percent of the vote and ultimately acted as the catalyst for new anti-government demonstrations in the wake of Maduro's supposed victory..These demonstrations and denunciations of Maduro's victory only increased following the opposition's publication of their own collected tally sheets from polling stations across the country. The opposition, under the leadership of Maria Corina Machado, published 80 percent of all tally sheets, which ultimately showed a victory for González, who secured 67 percent of the vote according to the opposition..Maduro's regime, on the other hand, has refused to publish evidence of the president's victory and has only offered denunciations of the opposition's publication. This move has alienated some of Maduro's possible Latin American allies, with the president of Colombia's Senate, Efraín Cepeda, stating that the Colombian government does not recognize Maduro's victory last Tuesday. While the failure to publicize has alienated Venezuela from possible allies, it has further emboldened those opposed to Maduro's rule, including the United States and Venezuela, who both endorsed González as Venezuela's rightful president following the announced results..In response to Argentina's firm stance against Maduro, the president's regime expelled Argentine diplomatic staff from Venezuela alongside their Chilean and Peruvian counterparts following the latter's own denunciation of Maduro. This ultimately led to a tense diplomatic crisis regarding six Venezuelan asylees who originally took shelter in Argentina's embassy in Caracas, Venezuela's capital, in March. Ultimately, Brazil took control of Argentina's embassy in a successful effort to safeguard those taking shelter there, ensuring the safety of the six for now..With the evidence mounting against Maduro and the president's brutal crackdown against dissent regarding his supposed democratic victory, Márquez alleged the CNE played a part in a "conspiracy" against Venezuela itself due to their lack of transparency regarding the electoral process.."We accuse … the council members of a serious crime, which is conspiracy to destroy the foundations of the republic, under the guise of an alleged hacking," Márquez stated in a document submitted to the TSJ. "Five main CNE members are committing a criminal offense … by violating the popular sovereignty contained in the vote.".The alleged hacking refers to an investigation opened into Machado regarding a supposed cyberattack targeting the CNE's electoral systems launched from North Macedonia. This attack was revealed by Venezuelan Attorney General William Tarek Saab, who announced Machado was among three opposition leaders under investigation for the alleged attack. Shortly after this investigation, Machado announced that she had entered hiding in an article published by the Wall Street Journal.."In light of this immense doubt …, I demand that the court order a vote-by-vote recount, instruct the CNE to do so, or have the court do it. Order the retrieval of all the boxes, all the ballot boxes, because there is (…) the vote of the Venezuelan people to verify what has occurred," Márquez continued in his statement. "The CNE is hacked, but not the cyber system; it is politically hacked.".Despite Márquez's efforts to address the inherent corruption within the CNE, much of Venezuela's higher government remains fiercely loyal to Maduro both due to the wealthy lives they live and the president's brutality in handling those who oppose him. This makes the possibility of a true change in the presidential election's results unlikely as those loyal to Maduro will likely continue to protect the president to defend their own lives from possible reforms under a new president..This brutal repression not only targets opposition leaders and protestors, but a large number of children have found themselves victimized by Maduro's regime. The United Nations mission to Venezuela concluded on Monday that more than 100 children have been detained by the regime's forces, who accuse those held of terrorism, conspiracy, and other high crimes against the state. These crimes are a common tactic employed by Maduro's enforcers, who arrest anyone who dares to express dissent to the president's continued reign..Furthermore, the children held by Venezuelan security forces are reportedly without parental supervision during their criminal proceedings, according to the UN's mission, a violation of International Law under Article 40 of the Convention on the Rights of the Child. The UN's mission places the number of those arrested at 1,260 while Venezuela's Attorney General previously stated 2,200 have been arrested. Those arrested face an uphill battle as their hearings are held remotely with courts in Caracas, regardless of where those arrested are held..Those arrested will also face a system much in favor of Maduro, with the few lower government figures who have refused to try those arrested for taking part in anti-government demonstrations being arrested themselves..The Opposition's Efforts.Amid increasing political repression, Machado has used her platform to attempt to instill hope in Venezuelans supporting the opposition. In an interview with EFE, she stated that she is sure that González will be sworn in as the nation's new president on January 10, 2025. Machado again pointed to the opposition's aforementioned gathered tally sheets and a statement in favor of the opposition by the Carter Center for this claim..In the interview, Machado highlighted several key points to further support that González will be the country's new president, notably pointing to how the international community perceives Maduro and the possible role of the military in removing the president from power. As previously mentioned, nations including Chile, Peru, Argentina, the United States, Panama, and others have all spoken out against this year's election. With Maduro's harsh response to requests for the CNE to publish tally sheets, much of the international community has seen through the president's supposed machinations.."[Maduro] has zero legitimacy today, no legitimacy, and therefore, it is a moment when the international community must set a very clear red line related to the respect of popular sovereignty," Machado told EFE..Most notable is Machado's belief in the role of the military. She told EFE that she believes the military must demonstrate to Maduro and the Venezuelan people that "they [the military] will not repress the people" and that "they will uphold the constitutional mandate to enforce popular sovereignty."."The one using military force to prevent the transition is precisely Nicolás Maduro, who has entrenched himself—surrounded by high military command—to disregard the will expressed by the people," the opposition leader continued..This statement follows a mere week after Machado and González released a joint statement calling on the military's lower enlisted and police officers to join the opposition in defiance of Maduro. Ultimately, this statement did not fall on dead ears, as Venezuela's Prosecutor's Office announced that the pair have been put under investigation for declaring González the winner and inciting "police and military officials to disobey the laws."."Today, it is Maduro's best option and may be the only one because attempting to remain in power by force, supported solely by the use of violence, is unsustainable in today's Venezuela," Machado said, finishing her regards to the military..The opposition's strategy remains largely unknown. While Machado's words regarding the military may point to a possible attempt at a coup, this plot would only succeed if the opposition manages to secure enough of the military, which itself will prove difficult due to the armed forces' loyalty to Maduro. The opposition has also offered a deal to Maduro, exchanging safe passage to another country for the president ceding power with support from Panama..This negotiation has reportedly been rejected by Maduro according to AFP..As the election remains contested, Venezuela has entered yet another bloody period within the country's history, a period which will likely continue until either Maduro is deposed or all opposition and hope for change is adequately snuffed out.