The Tables Have Turned

Since beginning in February 2022, Russia's war in Ukraine was strictly offensive for two and a half years. To be clear, that doesn't necessarily mean they were winning. Although a February 2024 analysis by Amos C. Fox, Arizona State University fellow and retired Lieutenant Colonel, concluded that Russia was faring better than Ukraine, multiple papers from CFR and the Brookings Institute have claimed that the war has been a disaster for Putin, strategically and economically.

But in August of this year, that changed. Ukraine launched a surprise offensive operation and took over parts of Russia's Kursk region. As of August 29, Ukraine had claimed approximately 500 square miles of Russian territory. Since then, Russia has been fighting to take this land back, with mixed success.

While all of this is happening, the West is considering a move to empower Ukraine's offensive by allowing Ukraine to use Western-sourced long-range missiles into Russian territory. Later today, Biden will meet with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the White House, where the entire discussion will center around this decision.

In other words, while Ukraine is fighting to take over Russian territory, the Western world is discussing allowing Ukraine to launch their long-range missiles into Russia.

Bluff or Promise?

It's important to remember that Putin has threatened war before. Most notably, toward the beginning of the war, he said that practically any military assistance to Ukraine would be considered an act of war. In fact, Wikipedia keeps a list of all of Russia's "red lines" and when the West crossed them. So far, 20 Russian red lines have been crossed with no retaliation.

But to dismiss all Russian threats as empty bluffs would be foolish. Russia currently has more nuclear weapons in its arsenal than any other country. And since the war in Ukraine has gone sideways, Putin looks now more than ever like a wild animal backed into a corner. Further, many questions have been raised regarding Putin's mental health, with reports claiming that the Russian President's sanity has been deteriorating. Surely losing parts of his own territory will not make Putin any less desperate.

A Second Phase

As the war enters a new phase of dual offensives, it is more volatile than ever. Much attention will be paid to how much Russian territory Ukraine will be able to hold and how Russia will respond on other parts of the map. The new frontier also presents an opportunity for Ukraine to regain lost territory elsewhere due to Russian forces being diverted.

But Western leaders must act with caution. Kyiv's offensive crosses into uncharted territory (no pun intended). The last time foreign soldiers entered Russia was during World War 2. Then, it was met with a swift counteroffensive.

Indeed, if Ukraine is allowed to launch Western missiles into Russia, uncharted territory will once again be entered. That line looks very red.

As the tension mounts, one thing is clear: the decisions made by Western leaders in the coming days could redefine the contours of international relations. Allowing Ukraine to launch Western-sourced long-range missiles into Russia is not just crossing a red line—it's stomping on it. The ramifications could be severe, and not just for the immediate parties involved.

The risk of miscalculation is higher than ever. A single misstep could trigger a chain reaction, pulling NATO directly into a conflict with a nuclear-armed Russia. It's a high-stakes game of geopolitical chess, and the pieces are moving rapidly.

While supporting Ukraine's right to defend itself is crucial, the West must weigh this against the potential for a broader conflict. Diplomacy, though strained, remains the best avenue for de-escalation. Cooler heads must prevail to navigate this treacherous landscape.

In the end, history will judge the actions taken during this critical juncture. The world holds its breath, hoping that wisdom will guide the hands of those in power. Because if that red line is crossed, there's no telling where the dominoes will fall.

Middle East Debrief