Former President Trump’s endorsements have fallen flat across the board, especially in competitive races, for the 2022 Midterms. In response, Republicans across the country are either backing Trump, questioning Trump’s political strength, or backing Desantis privately to congressional allies. Tethering their profiles to the two republicans with the highest likelihood of winning the 2024 nomination, they are trying to raise their own political capital. For this analysis, we will discuss the players who are doing each of these and the strengths and weaknesses of each approach.

Backing Trump

Only a few strong Trump allies are publicly backing him, such as Florida Rep Matt Gaetz and Indiana Rep Jim Jordan, both have publicly and privately stated they will endorse and support his latest bid. Firebrand Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene stated that Desantis is better fulfilling his governor’s seat into 2026, which while not defending Trump directly, supports his bid by telling his major prospective competitor to sit out the race. The last major ally publicly backing him is Rep Elise Stefanik, the no. 3 House Republican who endorsed him ahead of his presidential announcement. Stefanik came to power when Trump endorsed her after the leading Republican critic in the House, Liz Cheney, was voted out of the position for her criticism. Stefanik is paying back the favor by preemptively endorsing Trump.

In the Senate, there is a much less positive reception, with only Senator Tommy Tuberville of Alabama openly supporting a 2024 bid.

Questioning Trump

While these supporters show  support for his candidacy, there is a greater sense of distance between Trump and his some of his strongest supporters. Senator Lindsay Graham, who is thought to be one of Trump’s strongest allies in the Senate, declined to support Trump when asked, stating he will determine whether he will endorse Trump “after Georgia”. Candace Owens, another strong supporter of Trump, came forward with a story that made her “question him as a person” after she had a headline from The Dailywire appear out of context discussing his support for the Covid-19 vaccine. When he saw her, she said he was “quite rude”.

Chris Christie-Chris Christie went from a rival of Trump in the 2016 primaries, to being one of his strongest supporters throughout his presidency, even leading his debate prep with Joe Biden in 2020. After the Jan. 6 riot, he changed to criticizing Trump, with Trump responding by insulting Christie’s weight. As the midterms ended badly for his party, Christie stated that Trump’s political instincts are “about him”. He is seen as a prospective 2024 Republican challenger, and therefore wants to distance himself as more moderate in comparison to Trump.

Another key Republican who has not committed to a Trump endorsement is House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. McCarthey is a strong ally of Trump, but during the internal conference to decide on Republican leadership, he would reportedly not commit to endorsing Trump.

The main Republicans questioning Trump are those are have always been strong critics of him.

Charlie Baker-Outgoing moderate Mass. Gov. Charlie Baker stated that “voters arent interested in extremism” as a reason why Republicans did not win the midterms as much as expected.

Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan-Larry Hogan, a moderate Republican, has been a long-standing critic of Trump, from endorsing candidates in the 2022 primaries that were against Trump’s picks. He supported Trumps impeachment inquiry in 2019, drawing Trump’s ire. He did not vote for Trump in the 2020 election and supported the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act passed by Democrats and Joe Biden. It is no surprise that when the Midterms turned poorly for Republicans, he said that Trump costed the Republicans 3 elections, referencing 2018, 2020, and now 2022. A reason why he could be questioning Trump is because he is looking into his own 2024 bid for President, trying to distance himself as a moderate to Trump’s rhetoric.

Backing Desantis

There are some Republicans already backing Ron Desantis, especially after his blowout gubernatorial win in Florida. Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis stated that Ron Desantis is the current leader of the Republican Party. Rep Byron Donalds, one of the only black Republicans in the House, is also telling his colleagues privately that he will support Desantis over Trump for 2024. This is notable because he is running against Stefanik in the long shot bid for the no. 3 spot in the House. He is also a leading proponent of moving the Republican Party to embrace more diversity to get POC votes, especially for black and Latinx constituencies.

Another key group backing Desantis, without expressly supporting him, is the conservative group Club for Growth, which just unveiled major polling data that shows Desantis leading Trump by double digits in both Iowa and New Hampshire. By even unveiling this polling data, they are showing that Trump is becoming weaker. The Club for Growth was once a major Trump ally, but after the Jan. 6 riot, they moved on and became closer to other prospective 2024 candidates, such as Senator Tim Scott and Ron Desantis himself.

Herschel Walker-Herschel Walker is in the fight of his political life as he goes to a runoff election against incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock, and he was heavily supported by Trump from the midterm primaries to the general election. However, he is bucking from supporting Trump going into 2024, saying Desantis would be a “better fit” for the 2024 campaign. It is widely believed Trump’s toxicity prevented Walker from completely winning over independent voters, which were evenly split between Warnock and Walker, preventing either from getting an outright victory. Trump has also been cautioned, which he is going to ignore, to hold off on announcing his candidacy until after the Georgia runoffs to prevent it from turning into a referendum on him.

Megadonor Support Shifts

Financially, Republican mega donors are having choosing who to support. Miriam Adelson, one of Trump’s biggest donors, has told prospective nominees that she will not back anyone in the primaries, removing her massive financial support from the race. Andy Sabin, who donated $120,000 to Trump’s 2020 election campaign, stated that he will “not give (Trump) a f—ing nickel” and that he will donate $55,000 to a PAC devoted to Ron Desantis, the Friends of Ron Desantis, instead. Stephen Ross who owns the Miami Dolphins, Equinox and SoulCycle, stated privately that he would financially support Desantis, and gave $220,000 to Friends of Ron Desantis. Citadel CEO Ken Griffin, who gave $100 million to state and federal Republican nominees in the 2022 midterms, stated that he would back Desantis, and that he gave $5 million to Friends of Ron Desantis.

Each of these approaches has its own pros and cons.

Firstly, backing Trump or Desantis would, if the other wins the nomination, for the Republicans backing them to lose favor. Trump is known to hold grudges against anyone that does not display absolute loyalty to him, and while Desantis is more forgiving, he is also known to fire those who disagree, such as Susie Wiles. Wiles, after working for Desantis, was abruptly fired, which caused her to become a leading advisor to Trump.

The pro of supporting one candidate from the outset is important if the Republicans win in 2024. The endorser could be rewarded with a cabinet position or be elevated in Congress with that either Trump or Desantis’s endorsement.

Questioning Trump is still a politically risky move, however, it does leave the ability to fall back in and rejoin with either Trump or Desantis, if one or the other wins. Since there is not an immediate easy to start, but hard to retract decision, sitting on the fence has the lowest risk, but also the lowest reward.

Written by GoodHistory Contributor Alexander Korfiatis