Despite holding no military or strategic value, the desert commune on the border with Algeria symbolizes the deficiencies of the Russian-Malian military relationship–with the defeat at Tinzaouten carrying widespread international implications for both nation's military reputations. With Burkinabe air support in addition to alleged assistance provided by engineering units from the Turkish mercenary company SADAT, civilian casualties are likely to be large, as the FAMA has in recent months conducted a series of drone strikes on the area targeting civilian infrastructure.

Likewise, the deployment of two military detachments to the sparsely populated northern border area of the country has raised questions among analysts around the Malian government's true objectives. An attack in mid-September by the al-Qaeda-linked Islamic militant group Jama'at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) on the Malian capital, Bamako, left an estimated 70 dead–mostly cadets of a military training school. The swift pace of the attack coupled with the limited resistance faced by the militants in the capital, shocked both domestic and international observors, reducing both elite and popular support for the military junta as posited by the Institute for the Study of War's Liam Karr.

What You Need to Know

On the evening of the 30th, two military detachments departed from the Kidal region. One, to the commune of Tin-Essako, where it is believed it will head east to Tinzaouten, while the other detachment departed from Tessalit, heading north to Tinzaouten.

It is likely these specifc routes were chosen in an attempt to avoid the wadis (valleys) in the area as a result of the lessons learnt from the July battle of Tinzaouten, when Tuareg separatists forced the battle by driving the FAMA and their Russian aids into the low ground of a wadi, posting snipers on the high ground.

Moving only at night, Russian mercenary sources have remained quiet on their channels, in contrast to their on-the-minute updates given during the July battle. Despite this, Tuareg sources have maintained a lock on their locations, updating the movements of the two convoys regularly.

"The Russians have changed their route this time, but both routes lead to the same place. Blue men [Tuareg fighters] everywhere you are," said one Tuareg source.

Referring to the bypassing of a probable ambush site by the one of the convoys as confirmed by Russian sources, it is likely a large number of Tuareg reinforcements are stationed at Tinzaoauten.

The Background on the Fight

Azawad, roughly translating to 'the land of transhumance,' in reference to the nomadic lifestyles of the Tuareg people, is an imagined state found in northern Mali, where the country's Tuaregs reside.

The Tuareg people are a group of semi-nomadic herders found in northern Mali, the border regions of Niger, Burkina Faso, Algeria, Mauritania and Libya. They speak a Berber-based language, either Tamashek, Tamajaq, or Tamahaq depending on where they live. During the colonization period, the Tuareg people became fragmented by the borders drawn by the French, which impeded the Tuareg desire for an independent state.

As a result and since independence in 1960, various armed Tuareg groups have fought against the Malian government in order to realize the creation of an independent state. Russia's Wagner group was recruited in December 2021 to aid the newly established military junta of Colonel Assimi Goita, who ousted President Bah N'daw in a May 2021 coup. Since then, Wagner (now known as the 'Africa Corps') and FAMA forces have conducted a brutal counter-insurgency campaign against the country's many armed groups, including Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM)—an umbrella group of Islamic militant organizations such as Ansar al-Din, al-Mourabitoun (MUJAO), Katiba Macina, and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)—the Islamic State in the Greater Sahel (ISGS), and the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA), an umbrella group of Tuareg separatist movements.

In early January, the Malian junta terminated a 2015 peace accord with the rebels, reigniting the ethnic aspect of Mali's multi-dimensional conflict.

In early July, the FAMA, with aid from Russian mercenaries, increased attack against the Tuaregs, as targeting the likes of JNIM and other militant Islamic groups in the country has proven difficult, which is in-part due to the high mobility of the groups, whose members make use of motorcycles to move freely around the tri-border zone between Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.

So, What Now?

With the military convoys currently making their way towards the commune, it is unclear if the Tuaregs will attempt another ambush or instead concentrate their forces at the commune and its surrounds.

Moreover, with international eyes fixed on the Israeli incursion into Lebanon, it is likely any atrocities committed during the offensive will go unanswered for–as has become the norm for Russian activities in Africa and as seen during the junta's air strikes on the area, which killed 11 children.

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