How Russia Won the EU Elections

Recent investigations have revealed significant Russian influence operations targeting the European elections held from June 6-9. European specialist Paul Bouchaud from the Institute for Complex Systems has identified extensive use of Meta's platforms to disseminate pro-Russian propaganda, leveraging less restrictive US laws compared to the EU to bypass regulations..Russian Disinformation and Social Media Influence.European governments have accused Russia of spreading this disinformation to undermine and destabilize the EU ahead of the parliamentary elections. Tactics included the use of deepfakes, spreading falsehoods through sites and pages networks mimicking legitimate news outlets, and exploiting conspiracy theories. Specific allegations have emerged, such as the Czech Republic identifying the pro-Russian operation Voice of Europe, and Belgium accusing Russian officials of bribing Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) to disseminate Russian propaganda. Russia denies these accusations, framing them as part of a Western information war aimed at tarnishing its reputation..In fact, prior to the elections, several EU countries have been investigating a Moscow-backed operation to destabilize the European elections and bolster pro-Russian political forces. Intelligence and judicial services in countries such as France are tracking Moscow's proxies, including MPs, business figures, and journalists who may have disseminated anti-Western content and financed sympathetic media outlets..As the EU approached its recent parliamentary elections, disinformation surged, affecting an estimated 373 million voters. Disinformation campaigns have become increasingly sophisticated, leveraging AI and deepfakes to spread false narratives. For instance, a sophisticated network known as the Doppelgänger network has been detected spreading fake news about the Russo-Ukrainian War and other divisive topics. This network mimicked legitimate European media sites to distribute misleading content, also targeting EU climate policies and creating false narratives such as "carbon passports" and "climate lockdowns", traveling restrictions similar to those existing during the COVID-19 crisis..Other examples of disinformation include:.A fake story on a clone site of Bild claiming a German teenager died because streetlights were turned off to save energy.Populist politicians spreading narratives that EU climate policies would force citizens to eat insects.Reports falsely claiming wind turbines in Europe cause toxic pollution.Russian trolls suggesting that EU sanctions on Russian energy were causing hardships, contrary to the EU's shift towards renewable energy sources.Misleading campaigns portraying European climate initiatives as exploitative tactics against poorer countries..In response, the European Union has taken a multifaceted approach to counter Russian influence in its political sphere, particularly in light of the allegations of interference in the EU elections..Problem Acknowledgement by the EU.The European Commission has emphasized the need for robust measures to counteract authoritarian influences. More concretely, after the accusations mentioned above, the European Commission has decided to shut down broadcasts of Voice of Europe and three other news outlets, as well as freezing the assets of Voice of Europe. The Commission also sanctioned its owner, Viktor Medvedchuk, a former Ukrainian lawmaker with pro-Russian views..Investigations have also targeted corrupt practices within the EU Parliament. In May, federal prosecutors in Belgium searched parliamentary offices and a Brussels residence as part of a probe into alleged Russian corruption and interference. The investigation highlighted the role of Voice of Europe and implicated Guillaume Pradoura, a French parliamentary assistant to Dutch MEP Marcel de Graaff. Linked to other far-right EU politicians, Pradoura was expelled from the Rassemblement National (a French right-wing populist party) in 2019 after he posted an anti-Semitic photo online..The EU also created the Digital Services Act, which aims to combat online disinformation by demanding transparency in political advertising and the swift removal of illegal content by the platforms on which they are posted. Under this act, the European Commission has already launched proceedings against Meta for failing to adequately monitor and manage disinformation and illegal content on its platforms. However, the discontinuation of tools like CrowdTangle—a social media analytics tool that was acquired by Facebook in 2016 tracks and analyzes content spread across social media platforms—and the perceived inadequacies in Meta's internal mechanisms for content regulation highlights gaps in enforcement and the difficulties in managing digital platforms' influence on democratic processes..Thus, despite these interventions, the EU faces systemic challenges in completely safeguarding its political processes. Following the revelations of a Russian influence network within the European Parliament, and prior to the elections, a resolution specifically aiming at combating Russian interference was presented in front of EU's legislative institutions. It called for urgent action from EU leaders to address this interference, particularly in the context of the upcoming elections. The resolution also proposed strengthening security within the EU Parliament and incorporating measures against Kremlin-backed media into future sanctions..During the vote, the members of Italy's Fratelli d'Italia, along with Lega and Movimento 5 Stelle, all parties of what some may call the Italia's far right, abstained from voting on this resolution. The resolution was, however, passed in the European Parliament with a significant majority..European Parliament's Organization.Before explaining why these abstentions are of importance, we first need to quickly explain how the European Parliament is organized. For more details, see our dedicated article..Each national political party is associated with a European party, its continental equivalent uniting groups with similar political ideologies across Europe. These European parties are further grouped into "political groups" within the parliament, akin to coalitions in national political systems..The two groups that particularly interest us in relation with Russia are:.Identity and Democracy (ID): A right-leaning political group that is critical of the EU, advocating for and focusing on national sovereignty.European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR): This right-wing group focuses on Euro-skeptic and reformist policies..The ID Group in the European Parliament upholds specific principles that influence its policy-making, stated in the statuses of the group. They acknowledge the Greek-Roman and Christian heritage as foundational to European civilization, staunchly oppose any progression toward a European superstate—asserting that the nation-state remains the supreme framework where democracy can be fully effective—and firmly reject the potential accession of Turkey to the EU..These political positions significantly resonate with the Russian agenda: asserting Europe's Christianity mirrors efforts by President Vladimir Putin in Russia, providing a mutual foundation that is crucial in negotiations. The rejection of a federal Europe ensures that no strong geopolitical rival to Russia emerges. Moreover, the group's opposition to negotiations with Turkey about its potential EU membership aligns with Russian concerns regarding Turkey's increasing alignment with Western entities, which Russia views unfavorably. The ID also stands against fiscal policies that could lead to greater EU financial integration, such as a unified eurozone budget and direct EU taxation, de facto limiting the EU cohesion and capability as an autonomous entity..Furthermore, in a recently launched signature campaign, the group stated that, "with its Green Deal, the EU will make energy prices even higher," citing that external suppliers are taking advantage of the increasing demand. However, the campaign does not advocate for European energy autonomy, nor does it address the potential benefits of renewable energy, which could help reduce dependency on external sources. Instead, by implying that green energy has a higher cost, there is an implicit suggestion that non-renewable energies might be favored as a cost-effective alternative. Also, before the War in Donbas and subsequent economic sanctions, nearly half of the EU's imported natural gas and more than a quarter of its crude oil came from Russia, for a share in EU energy imports of around 26-27 percent (all energy types combined). Even after the war started, importation continued, with the EU adopting measures against Russian liquid natural gas only last week. This reality and ID's stance suggest that the group aims to keep energy costs down by maintaining or increasing reliance on traditional energy sources, including those from external suppliers like Russia..The ECR, contrary to ID, officially states its strong stance against Russia, particularly regarding energy autonomy and the War in Donbas, and commits to reforming the EU. However, it also stands for the sovereign integrity of the member states, in opposition to any movement towards federalism, qualifying the EU as "too centralized, too ambitious" on their official website. This once again avoids the creation of a real European power, thus playing Russia's game..Despite their official opposition to Russia, ECR's actions are inconsistent. As mentioned above, the members of Fratelli d'Italia (whose president, Georgia Meloni, is also president of the ECR) have abstained from voting on issues related to Russian interference in the EU..These positions and actions are pivotal in understanding what Russia could potentially gain from far-right groups in the EU, particularly in terms of influencing EU policies and maintaining divisions within the Union..Relation Between the Rassemblement National Party and Russia.Russian interests also take even more concrete forms. During the European elections, pro-Russian influence networks actively supported the list led by Jordan Bardella, leader of the French Rassemblement National party—part of the ID group—as confirmed by French state services. Viginium, France's institution responsible for vigilance and protection against foreign digital interference, revealed that these networks attempted to discredit French media and fact-checking organizations through a campaign known as "Operation Matryoshka," which involved flooding these entities with false content. State alerts regarding this campaign were initially dismissed by Marine Le Pen from RN, although her party later acknowledged the validity of these warnings..The misinformation campaign, notably active on social platforms like TikTok, X, Facebook, and Telegram, more concretely involved thousands of posts pushing narratives that favored the RN's anti-immigration and economic grievance stances. Some of these efforts were traced back to a Telegram channel directly connected to the Kremlin. Although the misinformation included fake documents and graphics mimicking French media and institutions and was propagated by Russian channels known for informational maneuvers, the fake content was not widely shared on social media..But RN's ties with Russia are not new. In 2017, the party secured an €8 million loan facilitated by French businessman Laurent Foucher, a figure entangled in financial and legal complexities. Despite his insolvent status and ongoing scrutiny for money laundering, Foucher managed to arrange this substantial financial support through Noor Capital, a finance company based in Abu Dhabi. The funds, essential for balancing the presidential campaign accounts of Marine Le Pen (the then-party's president), remain shrouded in mystery regarding their origins, especially since the revelation of Foucher's accord to cooperate with Russian authorities. While this financial arrangement is still under scrutiny by TRACFIN (the French anti-money laundering agency) due to the unclear provenance of the funds, the RN's 2014 €9 million loan from the Moscow-based First Czech Russian Bank is, for its part, attested..More recently, another figure appeared to have facilitated RN's use of Russian funds. Jean-Luc Schaffhauser, a former MEP, was instrumental in securing significant financial support through pro-Russian lobbying: his foundation received €255,998 explicitly for advancing Moscow's interests within the European Parliament. This transaction was part of broader engagements that saw nearly €400,000 flow to Schaffhauser's foundation or himself, from various sources including direct payments and commissions linked to these loans. These funds were intended to influence political positions and promote activities that align with Russian objectives, further embedding the RN within a network of international financial and political exchanges linked to Russia..Finally, RN's Jordan Bardella faced scrutiny over his association with Tamara Volokhova, a Franco-Russian advisor linked to Russian intelligence service personel and involved with a Putin adviser who facilitated the above-mentionned financial loan to the RN. This issue surfaced during a televised debate on June 25 2024, when Prime Minister Gabriel Attal highlighted the contradiction in Bardella's support for banning dual nationals from "sensitive public positions" while employing Volokhova obtained French citizenship in 2020 and handles foreign affairs and defense for Bardella as technical adviser. Concerns about her presence in sensitive meetings have led to increased security measures within the European Parliament..However, RN's official stance towards Russia is quite the opposite to what we just saw. On June 24 2024, Bardella, who led RN in the recent French legislative elections, stated during a press conference his opposition to Russia. He expressed vigilance against Russian interference and underscored the challenges Russia poses to French interests in regions like Africa, the Black Sea, and French overseas territories, including specific issues in Mayotte. While Bardella supports ongoing logistical and defense material assistance to Ukraine, he firmly opposes sending French troops to Ukrainian soil or providing long-range missiles and military equipment capable of targeting Russian cities..Russia's Point of View.On their end, Russian media and even state institutions have been very clear regarding their preference in the recent French legislative elections..Four days prior to the second round of the elections, on July 3, the Russian Foreign Ministry favored without ambiguity the RN during a press meeting. Andrei Nastasine, deputy director of the information and press department, remarked on the "unconditional success of the opposition" (in this context, meaning RN's success) and noted a growing demand among the French populace for "a sovereign foreign policy in line with national interests", free from the influences of Washington and Brussels. Nastasine also emphasized Russia's policy of non-intervention in foreign electoral processes..On the same day, the official account of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia posted on X a picture of Marine Le Pen, along with a caption reading that French people "are seeking a sovereign foreign policy", emphasizing the need to break from what is implied as US and EU dictates..And again, five days after the election which unexpectedly placed RN as only the third political power in the Parliament, the same official account posted this tweet:.Russian Narratives and Their Impacts.One of Russia's objectives in the tweets shared above is to qualify the EU as an undemocratic entity that dictates, in opposition to the rightful popular demand for national sovereignty and independence. This narrative allows for the direct application of one of the oldest strategy: divide and conquer..Russia also uses other narratives in order to delegitimize Europe's position in the current global order. Climate change initiatives are heavily targeted policies, with two motivations behind this strategy. First, since Europe has historically relied on Russian energy exports, Moscow is trying to exploit failures of current climate change policies (such as increases in the prices) and connect those setbacks to the decrease in energy imports into European countries, as ID's campaign exemplifies..Russia's second motivation to delegitimize Europe finds its root outside of the EU. Russia wants to strengthen its relationships with emerging economies in the Global South, and by emphasizing the same consequences stemming from current climate policies, Putin is attempting to depict Western nations as untrustworthy when it comes to industrialization strategies..The Possible New Dynamics in the EU Parliament.The recent European Parliament elections have witnessed a notable rise in support for the ECR and ID groups. Despite the groups still being in minority in the European Parliament, their secured seats increase can potentially reshape the political landscape of the EU, with impacts on internal and external policies, notably regarding relations with Russia..The ECR-ID block occupies almost 20 percent of the EU Parliament, with 73 seats for ECR and 58 for ID, for a total of 131 secured seats. The European People's Party (EPP, a right-leaning conservative group) remains the largest in the Parliament, with about 26 percent of the seats. This means that if the EPP wants to govern, they might have to ally with ECR and ID to secure a majority of the Parliament's votes, hence creating a need for them to accommodate the further right-leaning groups with their amendment propositions, which ultimately accommodates Russia..In another scenario, the ECR and ID groups could act as veto players or obstructionists, blocking the decisions in the Parliament. The RN adopted this strategy during its last mandate in the European Parliament, voting "no" to more than 60 percent of the propositions. This could lead to a more fragmented EU, complicating the EU's ability to maintain a unified stance on key issues, including defense spending and health policy centralization, despite the broader consensus on these topics owing to external geopolitical threats..However, it is also important to be aware of the internal divisions within the far-right bloc in the EU, which might limit their collective impact on substantive policy changes. In fact, ECR and ID groups both have subjects on which they do not agree at all, Ukraine being one of them..Therefore, the electoral gains by the ECR and ID in the European Parliament do not just reflect a simple shift in political balance; they signal a potentially deeper alignment with pro-Russian sentiments that could reshape the EU's foreign policy orientation. With a significant presence in the parliament, these groups may foster a legislative environment more conducive to policies that align with Russian interests. This could include advocating for the relaxation of sanctions against Russia, opposing EU military support to Ukraine, or diluting the EU's stance on human rights violations in Russia and its neighboring regions. The possibility of these parties influencing or even dictating key elements of the EU's foreign policy represents a strategic victory for Russia, which seeks to weaken EU unity and reduce resistance to its geopolitical agendas. The increase in parliamentary seats held by these groups thus not only represents a numerical increase but also a potential pivot towards a more Russia-friendly EU policy framework..Russia's Goals: Weakened Cohesion, Reduced Strategic Autonomy in Europe.RN's relations with Russia are a concrete example highlighting Russia's grip on European parties and potential influence in the European Parliament and overall policies. Further, the interference is not specific to France but rather continental: Italy's Fratelli d'Italia, Lega, and Movimento 5 Stelle voted in a suspicious way in the EU Parliament, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's party has links to the Kremlin..Overall, right-wing nationalistic and populist parties in the Union have been linked with pro-Russian sentiments, which could alter the EU's stance on several fronts. Russian support for these parties is viewed as part of a broader strategy to weaken EU cohesion and undermine support for policies adverse to Russian interests, such as sanctions linked to the Ukraine conflict. Russian media outlets have actively engaged in spreading narratives that promote traditional values and criticize the EU's sanctions against Russia, suggesting they harm European economic interests, which aligns with ECR and ID views. This relationship is particularly pronounced in Central and East European countries, where the rise of authoritarian and Eurosceptic parties often corresponds with a more pronounced pro-Russian agenda due to Russia's historical ties and influence with those regions..In reality, what we observe is not only Russia trying to directly influence politicians. Rather, Russia encourages an environment that is favorable to itself and its objectives, an environment that is created by the very opposition between nationally focused parties looking for support (international recognition, funds, etc.) and the EU's nature as a supra-national entity encompassing widely diverse interests. A good, simple example of this favorable environment is ID's recognition of the Christian heritage of Europe, serving as a common platform for discussion with Russia..As a general resume, we can say that through:.Weakening the EU's cohesion,Limiting the EU's strategic autonomy (for instance, targeting its energy and fiscal cohesion policies),Reducing the EU's influence (for instance on the international market or by targeting its political integration policies) ….Russia is hoping to:.Avoid the emergence of a united and coordinated concurrent power and potential strategic threat,Maintain its economic leverage both on the European and global markets, especially regarding its energy exports,Maintain its geopolitical influence in Eastern Europe and other neighboring regions,and Counter-NATO Expansion, which often perceived as going in tandem with EU enlargement..In order to implement these strategies, Russia chose influence operations in the EU, both through direct corruption of MEPs or through disinformation on social media..SPECIAL THANKS TO: Jose Garcia.