Conversations Around Sudan: Is Peace An Option?

In recent days, the indirect talks taking place between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Geneva, Switzerland, came to a close. At the same time, the SAF leader, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, held a phone conversation with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) President Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, colloquially called MBZ, whose nation has been accused of supporting the RSF in their war with the SAF..The Pursuit of Peace.The conversation that took place between MBZ and Burhan was the first public communication to occur between the two since the beginning of the Sudan War in April of 2023..The two discussed recent developments in Sudan. In addition, MBZ expressed the UAE's hope that peace can be achieved between the RSF and the SAF in Sudan, and stated his willingness to assist in bringing about any such peace..The talks, which were reportedly organized by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, were well received by Sudanese and regional political officials, including South Sudanese President Salva Kiir, who stated he had asked MBZ "to talk to his brothers in Sudan and he was receptive."."When people talk, they find a solution to the issues of concern." -South Sudanese President Salva Kiir.Other than Sudan, South Sudan—which only became an independent state in 2011, making it the youngest in the world—has been one of the nations most affected by the conflict, with South Sudan receiving masses of refugees fleeing fighting in Sudan. Hundreds of thousands have fled to the nation, which is abundant in its own problems, including grappling with humanitarian crises and food insecurity since its inception, and there remains a continuous flow of refugees entering its borders..In addition to the UAE's diplomatic influence upon both sides, the UAE has a key part to play in finding an end to the war given its alleged support of the RSF. Sudan has repeatedly accused Abu Dhabi of supplying the RSF with weapons—an accusation it denies—and enabling the RSF to expand its war effort, thus allowing the war to continue. UN monitors have described the accusations as "credible.".In a pre-war setting, the RSF already boasted an impressive arsenal, accumulated over several years of cooperation and, at times, participation in the Sudanese government. In addition, the RSF has managed to seize numerous stockpiles from the SAF in addition to the rumored arms shipments from the UAE..The Sudanese government has blamed the UAE for the war's continuation, though it should be noted that the Sudanese army has received arms from Iran, according to a Reuters investigation..If peace is to be achieved, the weapons flow from the UAE and Iran to the warring parties will have to be addressed, particularly if Abu Dhabi wishes to present itself as a legitimate actor in peace negotiations..Talks in Geneva.The indirect talks between the RSF and the SAF in Geneva have concluded, as of July 19th. The talks were hosted by the UN, more personally by the UN Secretary General's personal envoy for Sudan, Ramtane Lamamra. Lamamra. Lamamra stated that, throughout the course of discussions, he and his team held approximately 20 meetings to mediate between the two sides. Throughout the meetings, the RSF and the SAF never met directly with each other..The talks were a notable sign of progress as the first public meeting held between the two sides since November. However, the Geneva talks have failed to provide any meaningful agreement besides recommitments from both sides to avoid civilian casualties and facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid to Sudan's beleaguered populations..Specifically, the RSF committed to working with the Sudanese Agency for Relief and Humanitarian Operations (SARHO), an RSF affiliated organization, to better deliver humanitarian aid..Notedly, Lamamra's statement following the talks states that "although unilateral commitments by the parties do not constitute agreements with the UN," he welcomes "the commitments announced today by one of the two parties to enhance humanitarian assistance and the protection of civilians.".Lamamra also said he had asked both sides to make efforts to reduce civilian casualties and ensure the delivery of aid, which is critical as Sudan's humanitarian crisis continues to worsen..Lamamra specifically mentioned the North Darfur city of El Fasher, which has been under siege by the RSF since early May. Hundreds of civilians are believed to have been killed in the fighting over the city, with an estimated 800,000 civilians trapped in the city being placed at risk..Many foreign entities, including the UN, US, EU, and many others, have called for the RSF to either halt its siege upon the city, or to lessen its severity, as fears worsen of a larger massacre taking place in the event of a complete RSF seizure of the city..As stated, no agreement arose out of the talks in Geneva. So while it is a sign of progress that the talks occurred in the first place, the result makes clear that there is a long way to go before any sort of agreement, whether it be temporary or permanent, is reached..The talks had no formally scheduled end date, so it is unclear why they have now come to a close..At the end of the talks, the RSF's delegation gave Lamamra a letter written by RSF leader Mohamed 'Hemedti' Hamdan Dagalo, addressed to the UN. The letter is reported to have outlined a series of commitments by the RSF. In addition to reducing civilian casualties and orchestrating the delivery of humanitarian aid, the letter stated commitments to not target humanitarian workers and organizations, protect their assets, as well as hold accountable those found to be doing so, those delaying aid, and those participating in looting, a crime the RSF has repeatedly been accused of engaging in..Additionally, however, the Sudan Tribune has claimed that this letter contained a request that the UN Security Council pass a resolution to suspend Sudan's membership in the UN, claiming there to be an absence of a government since Burhan led a military coup in Sudan in October of 2021..Everyone's sights are now set on Jeddah, the site of previous talks held between the RSF and Sudan last year. There has been a continual, months-long effort to revive these talks, which broke down after both sides repeatedly failed to meet the commitments they'd agreed to..Several regional bodies and international entities have expressed hopes that the talks will resume, and potentially produce a ceasefire, whether it be temporary or permanent..The resumption of talks had, in part, been held up by the SAF's refusal to engage with the RSF unless several preconditions, most notably the RSF's withdrawal from urban centers, were met. However, the talks in Geneva show that the SAF may be willing to be flexible on this aspect..Regional bodies will have a significant part to play, in particular the African Union (AU). The AU has suspended Sudan's membership in the bloc, but Sudan has shown a willingness to engage with the AU on peace processes if it is reinstated as a member..If the progress made in Geneva, espoused by both sides, is genuine, then the resumption of talks in Jeddah is a possibility, although peace for Sudan for now remains elusive.