On July 22nd, Ugandan social media was abuzz. The day had come for the much anticipated 'March2Parliament,' a peaceful march organized by aggrieved Ugandan youth to the nation's Parliament building in Kampala to protest government corruption..The partyless, leaderless movement came as the result of a series of 'exhibitions' promulgated by Ugandan youth on X, which highlighted the deep rooted corruption among the Ugandan political elite, particularly the dealings of the Speaker of Parliament, Anita Annet Among..Among is sanctioned by both the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) for her office's 'irregular expenditures.' The UK has accused Among of "stealing from the poorest communities in Uganda," while the US's sanctions are based on "[her] involvement in significant corruption tied to her leadership.".And while Among was the name most commonly seen in the many posts against corruption in the country, the 'March2Parliament' signified something much larger..In a nation that has been ruled since 1986 by President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and his National Resistance Movement (NRM)—the political wing of the National Resistance Army (NRA) which gained power through a relentless bush war against the government of Milton Obote and later the government of Tito Okello, dissenting politically can result in the loss of life, health, and home..Utilizing memories of life under the "butcher of Uganda" Idi Amin, who served between 1971-79 and killed some 300,000 of his own people, as well as the chaos that was the Ugandan bush war, Museveni, through his clamp-downs on press, internet, and speech freedom, has crafted a national story that ends in despair unless he remains head of state..In addition to arbitrary punishments for negligible crimes such as insulting the President and his family, for which a 24-year-old man received a six-year prison sentence in early July, the President blurs the lines of command between the military, police, and civil defence units so as to secure his rule and maintain a grip on the exercise of political violence..And in the Ugandan case, political violence can be equated to torture..For example, as outlined by Helen Epstein, an American journalist who has written extensively on Uganda, "In 2017, Museveni's Special Forces raided Parliament to halt a filibuster campaign against a bill designed to enable Museveni to rule for life. One member of Parliament, Betty Nambooze, was escorted to a room without security cameras, where operatives held her against a wall while one of them shoved a knee in her back. She emerged with two broken vertebrae.".It is this fear, ingrained into the Ugandan political space that affects those who form part of the 'machine' as well as those who are directly affected by the machine's decisions, namely, civilians— and prevents popular mobilizations from taking place..With this in mind, the 'March2Parliament' protests can be seen as more than a corruption protest, but a wider resistance to the decades-long rule of Museveni and the brutality of his security services, who benefit greatly from millions of dollars of US funding due to the nation's role in the Global War on Terror (GWOT), particularly in Somalia..The March (Almost) to Parliament.In the Early hours of Monday the 22nd, the day of the protest, social media was pumping. New posts along the lines of "who is ready for today?," "see you in Kampala," and "if I die at the protest tell my family I died for Uganda" were popping up every few seconds under the 'March2Parliament' hashtag on X..One Ugandan youth posted an image of his homemade body armour, made from tire rubber, and fixed to his chest, while others uploaded images of the Ugandan flags they planned to carry with them to the capital..At the same time the youth were getting ready to make their way into the bustling city of Kampala, the Ugandan police moved quickly to cordon off the headquarters of the National Unity Platform (NUP)— the country's largest opposition party under the leadership of Bobi Wine..The police arrested several NUP legislators despite Wine posting on X that the protests were not organized by his party..This event is not the first time the NUP, or any other opposition party, such as the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), has been targeted by the security services. For example, and again as outlined by Helen Epstein, "In 2018, a year after he'd been elected to Parliament, Bobi Wine was himself arrested, along with four other MP's and dozens of their supporters. All were falsely accused of stoning one of Museveni's vehicles during a by-election campaign rally. When Wine and his associates appeared in court, after a week without access to their families, lawyers, or doctors, some, including Wine himself, were on crutches.".Despite the blocking off of the headquarters and the placing of roadblocks along many of the streets leading to Parliament, many protestors continued to make their way to the capital, mostly by foot..At around 10:00 a.m. local time, the first images of the enhanced security in Kampala began making their way through social media channels, with Museveni warning the demonstrators in the days prior 'not to play with fire,' with armored military vehicles filmed making their way through the city's streets in preparation of the protest..It was also around this time that many questions around where the meeting ground for the demonstrators was, began cropping up under the 'March2Parliament' hashtag..As posited by the academics Curtice and Berhlendorf, "although individuals are willing to engage in mass protests to challenge the status quo, they have a coordination problem: they do not know whether they have the sufficient threshold to effectively mobilize and impose change from below.".This point is most clearly seen through the disorganization of the demonstrators. Being a partyless and leaderless movement serves to protect individuals from state reprisals, as they cannot be directly linked to the movement, but it also means that 'every man is for himself' in regards to the motives behind and the methods of protest..The movement, largely being driven by the Ugandan Gen Z (1997-2012), the generation estimated to be 38 percent as productive when they reach adulthood as opposed to if they had received full education and health benefits, according to the UK government, are less inclined to fear Museveni's warnings of a return to the anarchy of the 70s and 80s, due to the simple fact that they were not alive to witness those periods of Ugandan history, thus taking the 'bite' out of the threat..However, as the day dragged on, many spectators began to notice a large discrepancy between the number of civilians declaring their support for and intent to participate in the protests online, and the actual number of demonstrators on the ground..A video of four demonstrators, arms linked together and walking towards a wall of police in riot gear illustrate this discrepancy most clearly..Curtice and Berhlendorf continue, "individuals willing to challenge the status quo falsify their preferences until they know there is sufficient support—a high enough probability of success— to make the risk worthwhile. Consequently, would-be-protestors must pay an initial cost to reveal their true preferences. Once these costs are paid and preferences are revealed, protestors should be more willing to express their political dissent.".The police's response to the protesters who did reveal their preferences—bundling them quickly into police vans and whisking them away—most likely appeared as a cost too high to pay for the would-be protestors waiting among the crowds for the protests to grow in size..Local press, the Ugandan Monitor, has claimed that almost all of the detainees had been charged with being a "common nuisance, idle and disorderly," despite the country's 1995 Constitution stating that every person shall have the "freedom to assemble and to demonstrate together with others peacefully and unarmed and to petition.".Laws, Non Laws, and Arbitrary States.Interestingly, outlined just under Section 29 of the Constitution which states the right to assembly, is the right to "enter, leave and return to, Uganda.".However, and seemingly moving against this constitutional right, is the decision of a Ugandan court on July 30th, to charge 36 activists associated with the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) with terrorism-related offenses after they were deported from Kenya—a country in the midst of mass anti-government protests—after attending a leadership and governance training course in Kisumu, western Kenya, according to the groups lawyer..In the eyes of the academic Rebecca Tapscott, this type of government control—the use of randomized violence and repression—which constitutes a form of modern authoritarianism, is the basis of what she calls an 'arbitrary state.'.Tapscott labels an arbitrary state as one that "allows for pockets of civic organization and pathways for citizens to make claims on the state; however, they make these spaces fragile by intervening in them violently and unpredictably…. The states ability to reinforce interventions with overwhelming and unaccountable violence makes it difficult for citizens and local authorities to calculate the risks of possible intervention, which causes them to self police.".This 'institutionalized arbitrariness' as Tapscott calls it, has resulted in the use of various protest methods to challenge state power. One such protest method is the 'naked protest' utilized mainly by the Acholi people of Northern Uganda in land disputes. The 'naked protest' serves to challenge the inherent 'masculinity' of the country's police force, who in 2018 "reportedly allocated 12 million USD to purchase teargas.".And while the naked protest was not used during the 'March2Parliament'—unless one counts the female protestor nearly fully stripped by security services as she was being arrested— the connection between inventive protest methods and repressive state security apparatuses illustrates that first, in moving to silence dissent, Museveni loses legitimacy in the eyes of the populous, pushing them to undertake inventive means of opposition, and second, arbitrary violence threatens all Ugandans, not just those outside of the ruling party's circles..Epstein, after conducting a series of interviews with Ugandan political elites in 2014 gathered that, "more than a dozen of Museveni's critics had perished in mysterious car crashes or after sudden unexplained illnesses in recent years. They included senior army officers whom he suspected of plotting a coup, opposition party agents, and an attorney general who was trying to block Museveni's campaign to eliminate presidential term limits. In Kampala, terrified MPs told me that they avoided driving after dark and establishing routines like going to a certain bar after work. In restaurants, they ate only from buffets, and never ordered from the kitchen.".The Role of the United States: "Stuff A Dictator's Pockets So He Can Fight Their Wars".Since 2011, the United States Department of Defense has spent over $280 million dollars on equipment and training for Ugandan military and police personnel, with the US's total assistance budget exceeding $970 million per year, according to the Congressional Research Service and the US State Department..While some of this funding goes towards economic growth, and the health and agricultural sectors–despite 39 of Uganda's 134 districts still lacking any hospital–a large sum goes towards the "professionalization of the military" who was the first to deploy troops under the African Union (AU) Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) in 2007, and maintained the largest contingent of troops in the Mission throughout its duration..The AU mission in Somalia seeks to support the Somali government to "maintain security and stability in the region, train the local police force and provide equipment" as the nation continues to face incursions from the al-Qaeda linked al-Shabaab militant group..As AMISOM, whose mandate ended on March 31, 2022, gave way to the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), whose mandate ends in December 2024, Uganda remains at the forefront, with the new force Commander Lt. Gen. Sam Kavuma from Uganda, arriving in Mogadishu just one day ago, to assume his duties..With ATMIS drawing to a close in December, giving way to the Somalian Stabilisation Force (SSF), Uganda, according to Nathan Mugisha, the Deputy Head of the mission in Somalia announced at the end of April, that Ugandan troops will stay on to support the 'post-ATMIS security arrangement.'.This continued support is crucial to both regional and international security objectives, as Islamic militancy continues to gain fervor in Africa, particularly in the Sahel..Having an ally in Somalia is at the forefront of the US's mind, evidenced by the $2.5 billion dollars spent on security assistance to AMISOM between 2010 and 2020, as it grapples with the loss of its Airbase 201 in Niger earlier this year, from which it conducted drone strikes against Jihadists..And this support comes even as President Joe Biden removed Uganda from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in December 2023 for its "gross violations of internationally recognised human rights..Museveni Forever.Winning every Presidential election since multiparty elections were reintroduced in the country in 2005, it is likely Museveni, or his son Muhoozi, who expressed interest in running as a candidate in the upcoming 2026 election, will continue to rule Uganda for the foreseeable future..Endogenous factors, such as Museveni's tight grip on the country's security services, to such a degree that military personnel and police personnel oftentimes don each others uniforms, coupled with the decentralized nature of the security services, with members unsure of the full scope of their mandates, enables the continuation of Museveni's rule and perpetuates the arbitrary Ugandan state..Exogenous factors, such as international support from the likes of the US, which is given, one hopes, in good faith, for the improvement of health, agriculture, and development circumstances, is more than likely diverted to the pockets of the political elite as well as to the security apparatus. In addition, Uganda's role as a bulwark in the fight against al-Shabaab in Somalia, cements its position as a key US ally, despite the nation's long and well-recorded history of grave human rights abuses.
On July 22nd, Ugandan social media was abuzz. The day had come for the much anticipated 'March2Parliament,' a peaceful march organized by aggrieved Ugandan youth to the nation's Parliament building in Kampala to protest government corruption..The partyless, leaderless movement came as the result of a series of 'exhibitions' promulgated by Ugandan youth on X, which highlighted the deep rooted corruption among the Ugandan political elite, particularly the dealings of the Speaker of Parliament, Anita Annet Among..Among is sanctioned by both the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) for her office's 'irregular expenditures.' The UK has accused Among of "stealing from the poorest communities in Uganda," while the US's sanctions are based on "[her] involvement in significant corruption tied to her leadership.".And while Among was the name most commonly seen in the many posts against corruption in the country, the 'March2Parliament' signified something much larger..In a nation that has been ruled since 1986 by President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and his National Resistance Movement (NRM)—the political wing of the National Resistance Army (NRA) which gained power through a relentless bush war against the government of Milton Obote and later the government of Tito Okello, dissenting politically can result in the loss of life, health, and home..Utilizing memories of life under the "butcher of Uganda" Idi Amin, who served between 1971-79 and killed some 300,000 of his own people, as well as the chaos that was the Ugandan bush war, Museveni, through his clamp-downs on press, internet, and speech freedom, has crafted a national story that ends in despair unless he remains head of state..In addition to arbitrary punishments for negligible crimes such as insulting the President and his family, for which a 24-year-old man received a six-year prison sentence in early July, the President blurs the lines of command between the military, police, and civil defence units so as to secure his rule and maintain a grip on the exercise of political violence..And in the Ugandan case, political violence can be equated to torture..For example, as outlined by Helen Epstein, an American journalist who has written extensively on Uganda, "In 2017, Museveni's Special Forces raided Parliament to halt a filibuster campaign against a bill designed to enable Museveni to rule for life. One member of Parliament, Betty Nambooze, was escorted to a room without security cameras, where operatives held her against a wall while one of them shoved a knee in her back. She emerged with two broken vertebrae.".It is this fear, ingrained into the Ugandan political space that affects those who form part of the 'machine' as well as those who are directly affected by the machine's decisions, namely, civilians— and prevents popular mobilizations from taking place..With this in mind, the 'March2Parliament' protests can be seen as more than a corruption protest, but a wider resistance to the decades-long rule of Museveni and the brutality of his security services, who benefit greatly from millions of dollars of US funding due to the nation's role in the Global War on Terror (GWOT), particularly in Somalia..The March (Almost) to Parliament.In the Early hours of Monday the 22nd, the day of the protest, social media was pumping. New posts along the lines of "who is ready for today?," "see you in Kampala," and "if I die at the protest tell my family I died for Uganda" were popping up every few seconds under the 'March2Parliament' hashtag on X..One Ugandan youth posted an image of his homemade body armour, made from tire rubber, and fixed to his chest, while others uploaded images of the Ugandan flags they planned to carry with them to the capital..At the same time the youth were getting ready to make their way into the bustling city of Kampala, the Ugandan police moved quickly to cordon off the headquarters of the National Unity Platform (NUP)— the country's largest opposition party under the leadership of Bobi Wine..The police arrested several NUP legislators despite Wine posting on X that the protests were not organized by his party..This event is not the first time the NUP, or any other opposition party, such as the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), has been targeted by the security services. For example, and again as outlined by Helen Epstein, "In 2018, a year after he'd been elected to Parliament, Bobi Wine was himself arrested, along with four other MP's and dozens of their supporters. All were falsely accused of stoning one of Museveni's vehicles during a by-election campaign rally. When Wine and his associates appeared in court, after a week without access to their families, lawyers, or doctors, some, including Wine himself, were on crutches.".Despite the blocking off of the headquarters and the placing of roadblocks along many of the streets leading to Parliament, many protestors continued to make their way to the capital, mostly by foot..At around 10:00 a.m. local time, the first images of the enhanced security in Kampala began making their way through social media channels, with Museveni warning the demonstrators in the days prior 'not to play with fire,' with armored military vehicles filmed making their way through the city's streets in preparation of the protest..It was also around this time that many questions around where the meeting ground for the demonstrators was, began cropping up under the 'March2Parliament' hashtag..As posited by the academics Curtice and Berhlendorf, "although individuals are willing to engage in mass protests to challenge the status quo, they have a coordination problem: they do not know whether they have the sufficient threshold to effectively mobilize and impose change from below.".This point is most clearly seen through the disorganization of the demonstrators. Being a partyless and leaderless movement serves to protect individuals from state reprisals, as they cannot be directly linked to the movement, but it also means that 'every man is for himself' in regards to the motives behind and the methods of protest..The movement, largely being driven by the Ugandan Gen Z (1997-2012), the generation estimated to be 38 percent as productive when they reach adulthood as opposed to if they had received full education and health benefits, according to the UK government, are less inclined to fear Museveni's warnings of a return to the anarchy of the 70s and 80s, due to the simple fact that they were not alive to witness those periods of Ugandan history, thus taking the 'bite' out of the threat..However, as the day dragged on, many spectators began to notice a large discrepancy between the number of civilians declaring their support for and intent to participate in the protests online, and the actual number of demonstrators on the ground..A video of four demonstrators, arms linked together and walking towards a wall of police in riot gear illustrate this discrepancy most clearly..Curtice and Berhlendorf continue, "individuals willing to challenge the status quo falsify their preferences until they know there is sufficient support—a high enough probability of success— to make the risk worthwhile. Consequently, would-be-protestors must pay an initial cost to reveal their true preferences. Once these costs are paid and preferences are revealed, protestors should be more willing to express their political dissent.".The police's response to the protesters who did reveal their preferences—bundling them quickly into police vans and whisking them away—most likely appeared as a cost too high to pay for the would-be protestors waiting among the crowds for the protests to grow in size..Local press, the Ugandan Monitor, has claimed that almost all of the detainees had been charged with being a "common nuisance, idle and disorderly," despite the country's 1995 Constitution stating that every person shall have the "freedom to assemble and to demonstrate together with others peacefully and unarmed and to petition.".Laws, Non Laws, and Arbitrary States.Interestingly, outlined just under Section 29 of the Constitution which states the right to assembly, is the right to "enter, leave and return to, Uganda.".However, and seemingly moving against this constitutional right, is the decision of a Ugandan court on July 30th, to charge 36 activists associated with the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) with terrorism-related offenses after they were deported from Kenya—a country in the midst of mass anti-government protests—after attending a leadership and governance training course in Kisumu, western Kenya, according to the groups lawyer..In the eyes of the academic Rebecca Tapscott, this type of government control—the use of randomized violence and repression—which constitutes a form of modern authoritarianism, is the basis of what she calls an 'arbitrary state.'.Tapscott labels an arbitrary state as one that "allows for pockets of civic organization and pathways for citizens to make claims on the state; however, they make these spaces fragile by intervening in them violently and unpredictably…. The states ability to reinforce interventions with overwhelming and unaccountable violence makes it difficult for citizens and local authorities to calculate the risks of possible intervention, which causes them to self police.".This 'institutionalized arbitrariness' as Tapscott calls it, has resulted in the use of various protest methods to challenge state power. One such protest method is the 'naked protest' utilized mainly by the Acholi people of Northern Uganda in land disputes. The 'naked protest' serves to challenge the inherent 'masculinity' of the country's police force, who in 2018 "reportedly allocated 12 million USD to purchase teargas.".And while the naked protest was not used during the 'March2Parliament'—unless one counts the female protestor nearly fully stripped by security services as she was being arrested— the connection between inventive protest methods and repressive state security apparatuses illustrates that first, in moving to silence dissent, Museveni loses legitimacy in the eyes of the populous, pushing them to undertake inventive means of opposition, and second, arbitrary violence threatens all Ugandans, not just those outside of the ruling party's circles..Epstein, after conducting a series of interviews with Ugandan political elites in 2014 gathered that, "more than a dozen of Museveni's critics had perished in mysterious car crashes or after sudden unexplained illnesses in recent years. They included senior army officers whom he suspected of plotting a coup, opposition party agents, and an attorney general who was trying to block Museveni's campaign to eliminate presidential term limits. In Kampala, terrified MPs told me that they avoided driving after dark and establishing routines like going to a certain bar after work. In restaurants, they ate only from buffets, and never ordered from the kitchen.".The Role of the United States: "Stuff A Dictator's Pockets So He Can Fight Their Wars".Since 2011, the United States Department of Defense has spent over $280 million dollars on equipment and training for Ugandan military and police personnel, with the US's total assistance budget exceeding $970 million per year, according to the Congressional Research Service and the US State Department..While some of this funding goes towards economic growth, and the health and agricultural sectors–despite 39 of Uganda's 134 districts still lacking any hospital–a large sum goes towards the "professionalization of the military" who was the first to deploy troops under the African Union (AU) Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) in 2007, and maintained the largest contingent of troops in the Mission throughout its duration..The AU mission in Somalia seeks to support the Somali government to "maintain security and stability in the region, train the local police force and provide equipment" as the nation continues to face incursions from the al-Qaeda linked al-Shabaab militant group..As AMISOM, whose mandate ended on March 31, 2022, gave way to the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), whose mandate ends in December 2024, Uganda remains at the forefront, with the new force Commander Lt. Gen. Sam Kavuma from Uganda, arriving in Mogadishu just one day ago, to assume his duties..With ATMIS drawing to a close in December, giving way to the Somalian Stabilisation Force (SSF), Uganda, according to Nathan Mugisha, the Deputy Head of the mission in Somalia announced at the end of April, that Ugandan troops will stay on to support the 'post-ATMIS security arrangement.'.This continued support is crucial to both regional and international security objectives, as Islamic militancy continues to gain fervor in Africa, particularly in the Sahel..Having an ally in Somalia is at the forefront of the US's mind, evidenced by the $2.5 billion dollars spent on security assistance to AMISOM between 2010 and 2020, as it grapples with the loss of its Airbase 201 in Niger earlier this year, from which it conducted drone strikes against Jihadists..And this support comes even as President Joe Biden removed Uganda from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in December 2023 for its "gross violations of internationally recognised human rights..Museveni Forever.Winning every Presidential election since multiparty elections were reintroduced in the country in 2005, it is likely Museveni, or his son Muhoozi, who expressed interest in running as a candidate in the upcoming 2026 election, will continue to rule Uganda for the foreseeable future..Endogenous factors, such as Museveni's tight grip on the country's security services, to such a degree that military personnel and police personnel oftentimes don each others uniforms, coupled with the decentralized nature of the security services, with members unsure of the full scope of their mandates, enables the continuation of Museveni's rule and perpetuates the arbitrary Ugandan state..Exogenous factors, such as international support from the likes of the US, which is given, one hopes, in good faith, for the improvement of health, agriculture, and development circumstances, is more than likely diverted to the pockets of the political elite as well as to the security apparatus. In addition, Uganda's role as a bulwark in the fight against al-Shabaab in Somalia, cements its position as a key US ally, despite the nation's long and well-recorded history of grave human rights abuses.
