Wagner Forces Heighten Tensions Along Chad-CAR Border

Following the arrest and subsequent release of four Russians and one Belarusian in Chad in late September, Wagner forces in the Central African Republic (CAR), in an act of retaliation, crossed the Chad-CAR border, according to Central African press."They shot people, tore down the Chadian flag, and planted the Central African flag. It was a real provocation," said one witness to the local press, Corbeau News Centrafrique..What You Need to KnowThe arrested, identified by their last names, were a Shugaley and Sueifan—whom Russia claimed were sociologists—a Tsarev, and a Belarusian with the last name Denisevich.Arrested in 2019 in Libya, both Shugaley and Sueifan were accused by the arresting authorities of attempting to meddle in the nation's domestic affairs.The reasoning for Tsarev and Denisevich's presence in the country was not released.However, Shugaley has been linked to the Wagner group through his NGO, the 'Foundation for the Defence of National Values', which has been linked by the United States to former Wagner Head Yevgeny Prigozhin's media empire.Additionally, the European Union has had a series of sanctions placed on Shugaley as a result of his connection to the paramilitary group, labeling the 58-year-old man as the "public relations arm of the Wagner group."As such, and as reported by CAR local press, "On Friday, October 11, a force of Russian mercenaries and CAR military personnel (FACA) crossed the Chadian-Central African border."On Friday evening, approximately 100 FACA and "as many" Russian mercenaries left the northeastern town of Bocaranga for the border. "They were in vehicles and on motorcycles. They arrived in N'Dim [a village along the Chad-CAR border] where they slept, and at 6 on Saturday morning, they left N'Dim to go to Bang[gui]," recounted one source.According to Liam Karr and Matthew Gianitsos from the Institute for the Study of Wr, "The Kremlin likely seeks to increase its influence in Chad to undermine—and eventually remove from the region—the West, support its operations in neighboring theaters, and mitigate the effects of sanctions for its war in Ukraine."So, What Now?The arrest of the three Russians, including Wagner-linked Shugaley signals Chad is less willing to allow Russia's influence attempts as compared to its neighbor, Niger.However, Chadian President Mahamat Déby has demonstrated a willingness to 'play the game' and reap the benefits offered by maintaining relationships with both Russia and the West—a strategy that has proved fruitful, as the collective West has largely ignored Chad's human rights violations in an attempt to bring the nation closer into its sphere of influence.Despite Chad's blossoming relationship with the Kremlin, the United States maintains a small military presence in the country, with approximately 75 Special Forces personnel—who were asked to depart in the lead up to the nation's presidential election—stationed at a former French military base in the capital, N'Djamena.A lucrative partner for both Russia and the West as a result of its location, with borders with war-torn Sudan, a nation in which Russia has major interests, particularly in the maritime sphere, a border with Libya that has continued to be a site for both Russian and Western competition, and the Central African Republic—a nation firmly in the Russian sphere of influence and which holds approximately 2,800 Russian mercenaries.