Turkey's CANiK Academy to Unseat Russia's Wagner Group in Mali?

A recent promotional video released by the Turkish CANiK Academy, a military-tactical training organization part of the SYS Group, which includes the CANiK defense manufacturer, Unirobotics, AEI Systems, General Academy and Mechanic, shows CANiK undertaking training of elite Malian troops.The promotional video, which also captured CANiK Academy personnel departing the Azalai Hotel in Bamako, raises questions around the future role of Russia's Wagner Group—who has maintained a presence in Mali and has played a major role in counterterrorism operations since 2021..What You Need to KnowThe recent dissemination of CANiK Academy's promotional video highlights the effectiveness of Turkey's 'Bayraktar diplomacy', which holds that Turkey's success in its defense manufacturing sector has enabled it to play a more active role in regional and global security affairs.Turkey's Bayraktar drones have played an instrumental part in the fight between the Malian government and the multiple armed groups in the nation, although in recent years the drones have been used to target civilian infrastructure in regions with ties to the nomadic Tuareg peoples.Additionally, Bayraktar has solidified its relationship with Mali's neighbors, who together form the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), in their own fight against Islamic terrorism.The entry of CANiK Academy into the country may be the result of first, the loss of reputation of Russia and its Wagner Group following the Battle of Tinzaouaten at the end of July, which left approximately 80 Wagner and 50 Malian military personnel dead, and second, the Jihadist attack on Bamako in late September, which killed 70 and wounded an estimated 200.These incidents are likely to have influenced the Malian junta under General Assimi Goita to approach alternate partners to aid it in its fight against armed groups in the nation, as Russian military support often comes in return for resource concessions, which enables the Kremlin to circumvent western sanctions placed on it as a result of its invasion of Ukraine.Pictured providing training in urban warfare, small and large arms, explosives, and field medicine, CANiK's approach to training Malian personnel as compared to Wagner's appears prima facie much more comprehensive.Tensions between Wagner members and Malian military personnel have been widely reported, with these tensions directly influencing the October decision to abandon the operation to capture the commune of Tinzaouaten—a Tuareg stronghold.The future of Wagner in the country thus remains unknown, as another Russian mercenary unit in neighboring Burkina Faso—the BEAR Jedi Corps—was recalled to Crimea in mid-August to bolster forces in Russia's Kursk region as a result of Ukraine's incursion.It is possible that Wagner forces remain in the country and continue undertaking counterterrorism operations; however, CANiK's entry may produce tension between Turkey and Russia, as the post-coup Sahel states have generally been seen as Russia's domain and have increasingly relied on Russia for equipment, food, and medical donations.