100 Colombian soldiers kidnapped by FARC splinter group

A splinter militant faction of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) known as Estado Mayor Central (FARC-EMC) have taken a re-escalatory step in the Colombian conflict. On August 11th, 2024, around 100 Colombian soldiers were kidnapped in San José del Guaviare by a "campesino guard" (rural militia) under the orders of Fabián Guillermo Espinoza, also known as "Cancharino." The kidnapping occurred while Colombian soldiers were conducting territorial control operations aimed at combating extortion and–ironically–kidnapping in rural regions. Sources report that at least 60 of the soldiers have since been released unharmed. It is not clear how many remain hostage..The Briceño Front, allegedly responsible for the kidnapping, is part of the FARC-EMC, a group of around 4,400 fighters that split from the larger FARC. Around 40 percent of its fighters continued negotiations with the government while the rest walked away from peace talks and are now fighting the army in rural parts of Colombia..The Colombian Government's Response.In press statements, the Colombian government has expressed serious concerns not just about the kidnapping but also on its potential implications on the ongoing peace process between the government and the armed dissidents who in 2016 splintered from the original FARC. On Sunday, Defense Minister Iván Velásquez warned on X that the hostage situation could lead the Colombian government to reassess its ceasefire with the dissidents. He stated that the kidnapping risks signaling that the dissidents are not committed to the peace process; if that is the case, the ceasefire, which is slated to remain in place until October 15th of this year, should therefore be suspended now..Political and military commentators have urged the Colombian government to adopt a firm stance against kidnappings like these. There have been calls for the government to establish clear guidelines for how the military should respond to situations like the one in San José del Guaviare. Additionally, there is growing demand for the government to prevent armed dissident groups from operating in and around rural communities, a reality which endangers civilians and hinders military operations..Strategic Analysis & Implications.This kidnapping, although escalatory with regard to the current dynamic between the Colombian government and the splintered FARC-EMC dissidents, is not new. It reflects a broader strategy historically employed by non-state actors and criminal organizations in Colombia. The strategic rationale is clear. Militant and criminal groups co-opt and manipulate rural communities to serve as human shields or to carry out actions that impede government military efforts. In the current situation, FARC-EMC dissidents pressured local civilians into kidnapping government troops, which adds a degree of separation between the dissidents and government that complicates the government's response. Such is the point; such asymmetric tactics make it difficult for security forces to respond without risking harm to Colombian civilians..Additionally, as warned by Velásquez, the kidnapping threatens to derail the fragile peace process. The involvement of Cancharino, a young and prominent FARC dissident leader, raises doubts about the true intentions of the FARC-EMC dissidents and the viability of ongoing negotiations. Should the government decide to suspend the ceasefire, renewed violence and a breakdown of the larger peace process underway since 2016 could take place..Looking Forward.The kidnapping has the potential to be a great obstacle in Colombia's long and complex peace process. While the 2016 peace agreement with the original FARC promised to end decades of conflict, splinter groups like those under Cancharino continue to show how non-state actors destabilize rural regions of Colombia while undermining the rule of law and eroding trust in the Colombian peace process. For its part, the Colombian government has a very important choice to make: will it continue the ceasefire in the hope of being able to save peace talks, or should it take the risk of ending the ceasefire risking the return of massive violence? In the end, the current peace in Colombia is very fragile, and it remains contingent on the commitment of many parties. Though the Colombian government presently has the unilateral ability to decide whether the violence restarts, it may not be the actor that decides when the violence settles in the future.