Colombian President Announces End to Peace Process With ELN

During an event at the Casa de Nariño where a new magistrate for the Superior Council of the Judiciary was sworn into office, Colombian President Gustavo Petro announced the end to the peace process with the armed leftist guerilla group known as the National Liberation Army (ELN) following the detonation of a car bomb in Arauca, which left two soldiers dead and 25 military personnel injured..A Shift in the Plan for “Total Peace”Petro’s decision to suspend peace talks with the ELN is a swift departure from the president’s plan to bring “total peace” to Colombia, a cornerstone of his presidential campaign, and has taken a key place in decisions regarding internal policy within Colombia. This plan seeks to end the decades-long internal armed conflict known as the Colombian Conflict, which has taken an estimated 450,000 lives while hundreds of thousands of others have been declared missing amid the fighting between belligerent forces by establishing a series of ceasefires with the hope of the eventual disarmament and disbandment of armed groups active in the conflict.While Petro’s plan made some strides in the early days of his presidency, securing a ceasefire with both the ELN on August 2023 and a splinter faction of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia known as the Estado Mayor Central (FARC-EMC), the plan faced fierce criticism from political opponents and Colombian citizens alike amid widespread allegations belligerent groups maintained illegal operations such as extortion, kidnapping for ransom, and drug trafficking, among others. Operations that violated the newly negotiated ceasefires.Criticisms ranged from the previously mentioned allegations against armed groups alongside fears that the negotiated ceasefires would ultimately fail and fall through, fears that have been confirmed in recent months. Not only has the ceasefire between the Colombian government and the ELN expired with little hope for revival, a similar ceasefire with the FARC-EMC was suspended in March following an attack on an indigenous community, which led to the death of a community leader and the injury of two members.After the attack, Petro announced that the ceasefire between the government and FARC-EMC was to be dissolved immediately while also reviving military operations against the armed group in retaliation for the attack. Since then, however, the FARC-EMC has launched numerous attacks against security forces, with notable examples including several attacks against forces in Morales, Cauca, and Jamundi, Valle del Cauca.These attacks are believed to be in an effort to force the Colombian government to reenter peace talks with the FARC-EMC, with innocent bystanders acting as mere collateral to the narco-terrorist organization.The ELN’s refusal to enter into another ceasefire with the Colombian government paired alongside the FARC-EMC’s increased operations against government forces have shown the weakening of Petro’s plan for total peace and the armed groups’ own increase in power during their respective ceasefires. Not only do the continued failures of Petro’s total peace plan spell ill tidings for the future of Colombia, the failures will also negatively impact Petro’s party’s chances at securing the presidential office in Colombia’s next presidential election in 2026. Petro himself cannot run for office in 2026 due to a constitutional restriction that prevents presidents from serving consecutive terms.Attacks conducted by the ELN have increased following the expiration of a ceasefire between the Colombian government and the ELN, which ended on August 3, 2024. Previously, the Colombian government reached a ceasefire agreement with the ELN on August 3, 2023, which was originally slated for six months but later extended by both parties as the ceasefire matured. Previously, the peace talks with the armed group had stalled following the Colombian government's decision to pursue peace talks with the group's Nariño front outside of the dialogue of the national representatives, ultimately leading to increased attacks by the ELN.The ELN has launched a number of offensive operations against Colombian authorities, with two such attacks, including an attack on a fuel pipeline in late August and a shooting targeting a military checkpoint located in Tame, Arauca, which reportedly left two soldiers dead. The latter attack is part of a larger strategy employed by both the ELN and the FARC-EMC known as “pistol plans,” a strategy consisting of targeting vulnerable soldiers and police in an effort to undermine morale and destabilize regions of interest to the armed group.With the chance of reignited peace talks with the ELN seeming bleak, Colombia seems to be heading towards yet another bloody period as a part of the much larger Colombian conflict as armed groups continue to be resistant to long-term peace deals with the government.