Rwanda’s Kagame Set to Secure a Fourth Term

With 78 percent of the nation's votes counted just one day after the Rwandan election, which took place on July 15th, incumbent President Kagame has received an astonishing 99.15 percent of the national vote. Opposition candidates Frank Habineza from the Democratic Green Party, and Phillippe Mpayimana received 0.53 and 0.32 percent of the vote, respectively..The stark margins between President Kagame and the other candidates are relatively unsurprising, with Kagame receiving 98 percent of the national vote in the nation's 2017 election..Final results for both the Presidential and parliamentary election are expected no later than July 27th..What You Need to Know.In early June, opposition candidate Diane Rwigara, leader of the People's Salvation Movement (PSM) was barred from running in the election, with the nation's independent electoral commission claiming Rwigara had submitted incomplete documents. Rwigara barred from running in the 2017 election as well..Officially taking office in 2000, Kagame, due to his role as the Commander of the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF)—a guerrilla army that ended the Rwandan genocide by invading the country from their base in Uganda—had exerted de-facto influence over the nation's policy even while Pasteur Bizimungu was the nation's head of state..Since 2001, Kagame has dominated in the country's elections, as evidenced by his 24-year-long rule. International rights groups have, however, accused Kagame of utilizing extralegal means to silence critics and jail opposition members.."Fourteen members of the unregistered Dalfa-Umurinzi opposition party and four journalists and critics are behind bars. Several are awaiting trial—some have been in pretrial detention for more than two years—and others have been convicted of offenses incompatible with human rights norms. Since the country's last Presidential election in 2017, at least five opposition members and four critics and journalists have died or disappeared in suspicious circumstances," Human Rights Watch (HRW) has said..The jailing of Victoire Ingabire, President of Dalfa-Umurinzi, after attempting to run in the nation's 2010 election is but one example of political repression in the country. Ingabire spent eight years in prison, being held for five of those years in solitary confinement..On the other hand, Kagame's supporters have praised the leader for his effective economic policies, and Rwanda is seen by the West as a 'donor-darling,' a nation that receives minimal conditions on aid funding due to its history of responsible fiscal spending..Outside of domestic concerns is Rwanda's role in backing the M23 rebels in the neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo. A United Nations group of experts outlined in a July 9th report that there are an estimated 3,000-4,000 Rwandan troops in the eastern Congo, who, with additional backing from Uganda, have managed to capture swaths of territory from the Congolese armed forces (FARDC)..So, What Now?.With final results expected to be announced on July 27th, the provisional results point to the incoming re-election of President Kagame. This will mean a continuation of Rwanda's policy of interference in the eastern Congo, while making gains in domestic economic sphere at the same time.