Turkey Set to Deploy Navy to Somalia

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has submitted a motion to the Turkish parliament requesting the deployment of Turkish naval forces to Somalia. The request is an expansion on a defense and economic deal signed between the two nations earlier in the year, and also comes as Turkey hopes to begin oil drilling operations in Somali waters in the coming months..Enhanced Cooperation.Yesterday, July 18th, Turkey's Minister of Energy Alparslan Bayraktar signed a deal with the Somali Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Abdirizak Omar Mohamed in order to send Turkish maritime exploration vessels off of the Somali coast to search for oil and gas resources in the area..Turkey's state petroleum company, the Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO), is set to explore three different blocks of Somalia's maritime areas as part of Thursday's deal. These exploration efforts are hoped to lead to TPAO oil drilling operations in Somali waters in the coming months..The deployment of Turkish naval forces, largely meant to assist Somalia against "terrorism, piracy, illegal fishing, smuggling, and other threats," is also likely occurring to protect TPAO assets in the area while they conduct exploration and, eventually, drilling..Since the collapse of Siad Barre's regime in 1991, Somalia has not developed any of its hydrocarbon resources, representing a significant untapped market opportunity for both nations. According to the US government International Trade Association, Somalia has reserves of at least 30 billion barrels of oil and gas..Full production in the area is expected to be difficult to achieve, with the further development of oil and gas operations in the blocks expected to cost Turkey billions of dollars. It is unclear if Turkey plans to privately or publicly fund the project; however, the deployment of Turkish naval assets in the area is likely to help with any security concerns potential investors may have..Erdogan's motion builds upon a defence and cooperation agreement that was signed between the Turkish and Somali Ministers of Defence in February..While the exact details of the deal have yet to be made clear, at the time it was stated that Turkey would seek to contribute to Somalia's naval defense. Further, Turkey is set to contribute to Somalia's hopes of expanding its small navy, allowing it to participate in its own naval defense..February's deal is to last for at least 10 years, and Erdogan's motion submitted today for the deployment of Turkish naval forces is to last two years. However, it is renewable and is likely to be so if Turkey establishes an economic foothold in Somalia's exclusive economic zone..Regional Tensions.The deal in February notedly came one month after Somalia's neighbor, Ethiopia, signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the northern Somali separatist region of Somaliland, which has operated independently since 1991..The MoU allows for Ethiopia to gain access to the Somaliland port of Berbera. In exchange for access to 20km of coastline, and thus access for Ethiopia to the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, Ethiopia has stated they will recognize Somaliland's independence, and establish official diplomatic ties..Ethiopia has yet to go through with the terms of the deal, which has been rejected by Somalia, Turkey, and a number of others..Somalia referred to it as a violation of its sovereignty and vowed to defend its claimed territory. According to Somali sources, February's deal included the expectation that Turkey would assist Somalia in defending its territory from Ethiopia in the event that Ethiopia turned out to be a threat..Ethiopia has stated it does not intend to go to war over the deal, which brings to fruition Ethiopia's dream of regaining sea access they lost when Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1991..Turkey also is unlikely to exercise its military resources against Ethiopia. Although Turkey and Somalia hold close relations, Turkey and Ethiopia also hold friendly relations. As such, Turkey has sold military resources to Ethiopia in the past. Turkish drones played a significant part in the central government's victory in the Tigray War against the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front, which ended in 2022..In order to mitigate the crisis, Turkey has inserted itself as a mediator between the two nations and hosted a meeting between them on July 1st. Turkey plans to hold more engagements in September and stated that both Ethiopia and Somalia "reiterated their commitment to the peaceful resolution of differences." However, some sources have claimed that Ethiopia has shown some apprehension towards the negotiations on the matter..The deployment acts as a partial bulwark against Ethiopia, regardless if Turkey intends to use it or not.