Naval Standoff in South Aegean Highlights the Fleeting Détente in Greek-Turkish Relations

The lasting impression of rapprochement between Greece and Turkey in their 50-year dispute over continental shelf delimitation and Turkey's pursuit of strategic control of the Aegean has been fleeting, as Turkish warships were deployed within the Greek Exclusive Economic Zone on July 23. Five surface units violated the Greek EEZ, delimitated with Egypt as per a partial delimitation agreement signed in 2020, seeking to prevent an underwater cable-laying operation by "Ievoli Relume," an Italian vessel conducting research for the deployment of the Great Sea Interconnector (GSI)—an electricity connection project between Crete and Cyprus..The EU-funded project will see the laying of the world's largest submarine cable from Crete to Cyprus and then Israel. Formerly known as the EuroAsia Interconnector, the submarine cable boasts a 2,000 megawatts capacity, bidirectional capabilities and would contribute to building a more energy-independent Europe while elevating the geopolitical significance of the Eastern Mediterranean and Cyprus as an energy corridor and hub..Minister of Energy, Commerce and Industry of the Republic of Cyprus, George Papanastasiou, hailed the project as a monumental geopolitical upgrade of Nicosia's regional standing, noting that: "Cyprus is now becoming a geostrategic hub because it will be located between the electrical flows of Israel, Greece, Europe." Cyprus would gain 66 percent of electricity under a draft agreement while Greece will be receiving the remaining 34 percent..As the ambitious but fledging plan for the EastMed gas pipeline traversing the politically volatile and disputed waters of the Eastern Mediterranean has lost momentum, the Great Sea Interconnector stands as a financially viable alternative..Ankara's objections first expressed against the proposed EastMed pipeline continue to shadow the project's implementation as the Turkish navy has for the first time been deployed to block its preparatory phase..What Happened.A total of five Turkish warships were deployed on the edge of Greek territorial waters (six nautical miles) off the coasts of the islands of Kassos and Karpathos in an attempt to block the Italian research vessel from conducting its sanctioned surveys in international waters within the Greek EEZ. As per Turkey's "Blue Homeland" (Mavi Vatan) doctrine and the legally dubious 2019 Libyan-Turkish memorandum, Ankara maintains that Greek islands have no right to an exclusive economic zone and that Turkish maritime jurisdiction starts where Greek territorial waters end..However, what was likely set to evolve into a heavily militarized brinkmanship crisis, much like the 2020 maritime standoff between the Greek and Turkish naval fleets over the Turkish Oruc Reis research vessel's mission in disputed waters, was quickly defused. The high premium that Greek diplomacy, headed by Foreign Minister Georgios Gerapetritis, places on maintaining "calm waters" and détente across the Aegean spawned Greek diplomacy into action while the Greek navy deployed frigate "Nikiforos Fokas", gunboat "Aittitos" and a coastguard vessel against two Turkish missile boats, frigates "Go Kcu," "Go Kova," and corvette "Beykoz":.Following a day of intense diplomatic engagements, the Italian research ship announced on Wednesday, July 24, that it had concluded its mission in both Greek territorial waters and EEZ..The Greek government and Gerapetritis maintain that the Italian vessel was able to finish its planned research on time without being compelled to withdraw from the designated area reserved by a Navigational Telex (NAVTEX) issued by the Greek hydrographic station at Heraklion within the NAVTEX-sanctioned area within the Greek EEZ. The Turkish foreign ministry, on the other hand, has claimed that the Greek government and "Ievoli Relume" respected Ankara's claims in the Eastern Mediterranean, and following bilateral diplomatic consultations, the Greek-chartered vessel withdrew from the southeast Aegean without encroaching upon the area where the Greek EEZ and Turkish claims overlapped..While the Turkish foreign ministry claimed that its warships prevented the vessel from sailing outside Greek territorial waters, Gerapetritis has since sought to refute Ankara's assertions:."The survey was carried out in full accordance with the original plan," Gerapetritis stated, adding, "The survey was conducted not only in our territorial waters but also in the international waters of the Greek EEZ."."[Turkey] aimed to convey that no surveys could be conducted by Greece and Cyprus in this area. We remain resolute. We declared that the survey would continue and be completed, which is precisely what happened […] There was no risk of a 'hot incident,' and ultimately the survey was completed. If I may say so, this is not a retreat but rather the opposite," the Greek Foreign Minister added..However, the research vessel did not cover the entirety of the area covered by the Greek NAVTEX, according to a comparison of the maps showcasing the NAVTEX-sanctioned area and the ship's route, according to Marine Traffic. A look at available Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) suggests that the research ship briefly sailed in international waters which would belong under Greek maritime jurisdiction as per the 2020 Greek-Egyptian agreement..Hence, while the NAVTEX stretched across international waters and within the delimitated Greek EEZ, the ship was recalled a few hours earlier before the Greek NAVTEX expired in the evening of Wednesday, July 24..Strategic Backdrop:.Ankara's goal of denying Greece's maritime depth in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean is driven by the geostrategic imperative of President Erdogan's pursuit of Turkish regional hegemony. Turkish policymaking disregards customary international maritime law and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and instead seeks to impose its will via brinkmanship and coercion. Under Erdogan, Turkey has sought to boost its maritime potential and naval capabilities, aiming at creating a blue-water navy capable of commanding the seas and exerting strategic control of the eastern half of the Aegean Sea and a large part of the Eastern Mediterranean basin in accordance with its widely publicized "Blue Homeland" map..Greece's opposing strategy appears convoluted by the self-help imperative of boosting its military deterrent force and periodically engaging with Turkey on a bilateral level to address the pending delimitation of the Aegean continental shelf but also fend off Ankara's additional claims over the extent of Greek territorial waters, airspace, the Athens Flight Information Region (FIR) and the partial demilitarization of Greece's eastern Aegean islands. The planned modernization and maximizing of Greek military power include most notably the procurement of three French-made multi-mission frigates to be delivered in 2025-6, at least 20 F-35 fighter jets scheduled for delivery in 2028, as well as the ongoing modernization of 84 Block 52/52+ aircraft to the "Viper" configuration (Block 72) set to be completed by 2027..The Greek Defence Ministry's "Agenda 2030" has sought to kickstart a long-overdue modernization of Greek armed forces' equipment and strategic culture to enhance Athens's capabilities to defend its delimitated but also prospective EEZ, its numerous islands and islets whose sovereignty has been disputed by Turkey since 1996 while yet maintaining the readiness to fight a defensive war against Turkish forces across the line of contact, stretching from the Greek-Turkish land border at Evros/Maritsa river to the eastern-most island of Kastellorizo..The net-centric warfare capabilities and potential for enhanced and greater levels of shared situational awareness in joint integrated operations could also allow for Greece's aeronautical forces to project power across the entirety of the Eastern Mediterranean, thus critically contributing to the strengthening of extended deterrence against Turkey's occupational forces in Cyprus if Greek political will dictates so..The planned interconnector would not only contribute to Cyprus's energy independence but also encompass the potential to cement the trilateral balancing coalition between Athens, Nicosia, and Jerusalem against Turkey's vision for regional hegemony in the Eastern Mediterranean. Whether sufficient political will can be summoned in Athens to that end remains doubtful as long as the Greek government's unbalanced attempts to sustain the fleeting momentum of Greek-Turkish rapprochement continue despite substantial Turkish reciprocity lacking..Conclusion.The incident highlights the lack of a lasting Greek grand strategy vis-a-vis the existential threat posed by Turkish claims in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean and the lack of political will in the context of ongoing Greek-Turkish rapprochement to enforce the legality of its bilateral but partial EEZ delimitation agreement with Egypt. The deployment of Turkish warships signaled Ankara's intentions to uphold its claims from the legally dubious 2019 Libya-Turkey memorandum against the Greco-Egyptian 2020 delimitation..Turkey's attempt at establishing a de facto blockade of the southeastern straits between the Greek islands of Kassos and Karpathos, granting entrance and exit to and from the Aegean Sea underline Ankara's geostrategic ambitions for effectively partitioning the eastern half of the Aegean Sea, as per its "Blue Homeland" doctrine in contravention to both the spirit and letter of the 1923 Peace Treaty of Lausanne.