What to Expect from Venezuela’s Elections

For the first time in seven years, Venezuelans will head to the polls to vote for a new president, alongside new representatives, following negotiations between the Venezuelan government and the United States during which the US promised to relieve some sanctions on the South American nation in exchange for a fair and free election..Controversy As Election Day Looms.While the election is slated for Sunday, numerous complaints from the country's opposition parties have arisen since the announcement of elections, a clear indication that ruling President Nicolas Maduro does not wish to play by the rules. Opposition parties claim Maduro's government prevented the candidacy of several prospective candidates, with figures such as Maria Machado, the opposition's leading candidate, alongside her original replacement, Corina Yoris lodging complaints against both the president and Venezuela's electoral authority, the National Electoral Council (CNE)..Machado, who originally won the opposition parties' primary by 90 percent in October, was barred from running for public office in June due to her support for US sanctions and criticisms against Maduro's government. Machado also fought against claims that she had participated in a number of corrupt dealings and for her public support of former opposition leader, Juan Guaido..Machado, who ran as a candidate for Vente Venezuela, the country's leading opposition party, previously stated that if she won the primaries, she could pressure the government to allow her to run. Ultimately this failed, as the Venezuelan Supreme Court upheld the ban against her in late January after Machado challenged the original ruling..Following the ruling, the United States revoked a portion of its sanctions relief, reimposing sanctions on Venezuela's gold mining industry. The US claimed that the numerous bans against political rivals violated the 2023 Barbados agreement, which was signed to promote political rights and electoral guarantees for those wishing to run for office. The agreement outlines several key points, including recognizing the right of political actors to choose their candidates freely and promoting electoral guarantees before the National Electoral Council..Ultimately, Machado chose a political unknown, Corina Yoris, to take her place as frontrunner in March, days prior to the registration dates for candidates. Yoris, a professor and former news columnist who has never held public office, would ultimately fail to register in what the opposition claimed was the fault of the government..The Unitary Platform, a political alliance of Venezuela's opposition, claimed that Yoris was unable to register with the CNE the night before the cutoff and were unable to reach the CNE's office due to demonstrations organized by the current ruling party, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV)..The Unitary Platform announced the failure to register just one day after the cutoff in a press conference where both Machado and her replacement, Corina Yoris, spoke against the government's choice to block Yoris from registering. Yoris claimed that the CNE purposely prevented Yoris from registering before stating, "If they [the CNE] deny my right to register, they are denying it to the entire country.".In a bid to offer Venezuela an alternative to Maduro, the Unitary Platform chose to endorse former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia with the hope of registering another candidate at a later date. This hope would eventually dissolve after the alliance fully endorsed González as their candidate. González, who previously served as the country's diplomat to Algeria and Argentina, maintains that Machado remains "the leader of the opposition" and "the leader of this unitary process," leaving the disqualified politician to campaign in his place..Prior to the announcement that Yoris was unable to register, arrest warrants against several members of Vente Venezuela were issued on charges of conspiracy to assassinate the President. These warrants followed hot on the heels of the arrest of more than 30 activists and political leaders—including other members of Vente Venezuela—in a move that international aid groups and the United Nations claimed was a deliberate effort to limit the opposition..In March, the Venezuelan Intelligence Service, Sebin, arrested Machado's campaign director and regional coordinator, Emill Brandt Ulloa. Just weeks after this arrest, warrants were issued for a number of other key leaders within the opposition party, six of whom fled to the Argentine embassy to apply for political asylum, alleging that the arrest warrants were intended to weaken the party and not for a just cause..Tensions flared between the Argentine government and Maduro's regime when workers employed by the state allegedly cut all power to the Argentine Embassy following calls from authorities to surrender those seeking asylum.."After issuing an arrest warrant, a siege began on the Argentine embassy in Caracas," said Omar González Moreno, a former deputy and one of the regional coordinators of the party's electoral command. "They have cut off our electricity. Refrigerators, water, and basic services.".Gonzalez Moreno further alleged "video evidence" of state workers tampering with "part of the equipment that allows only the residence of the Argentine ambassador in Caracas to be without electrical service.".The five others who fled to the Argentine Embassy included Magalli Meda, the campaign manager for Machado; Pedro Urruchurtu, the international coordinator of Vente Venezuela; Humberto Villalobos, an electoral expert; Claudia Macero, who is in charge of the party's communications; and a sixth unnamed person who requested anonymity due to security concerns..The move was met with concern from Argentine officials, with the government alleging that the cutting of power was a direct violation of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations..Following the siege, Argentine and Venezuelan authorities reached an agreement to allow those seeking asylum in the embassy to peacefully leave Venezuela. This agreement would ultimately fall through according to Argentine officials, who claim that the Venezuelan government never issued safe-conduct passes..Maduro Interferes, Resistant to Transparency .As election day marches ever closer, Maduro has increased his attacks on the chance for a free Venezuelan democracy. In late May, the CNE rescinded the European Union's invitation to oversee the nation's upcoming presidential elections leading to widespread concerns regarding the integrity of the upcoming elections..Officials stated that the move was due to the EU's continued sanctions against Venezuela, sanctions which affect 50 Venezuelans who have been accused of acts of repression or efforts to undermine democracy. Despite this claim, the EU had previously lifted sanctions against Venezuelan entities with ties to the CNE, leading one official, Elvis Amoroso, to claim that it was not enough to appease authorities and was selective in nature.."They [the EU] are not worthy people to come to this country…while they maintain sanctions," Amoroso stated on national television..The move has resulted in the EU requesting the CNE to reevaluate its decision, stating in a post on X that international observation is essential to safeguard the upcoming election.."The Venezuelan people should be able to choose their next president in credible, transparent and competitive elections, supported by international observation, including that of the European Union, which has a long and distinguished record of independent and impartial observation," the statement read..Maduro has not only turned to political and bureaucratic means to limit the opposition and the legitimacy of the vote, but the president's regime has also issued mass arrests of opposition party members in an effort to curb the rising influence of the Unitary Platform while attacks by criminals have targeted the political alliance as election day closes in..Just ten days prior to the election, two vehicles used by Machado were attacked, leading to widespread condemnation by the Unitary Platform alongside supporters. The attack is part of an increasing effort by officially unknown factions to disrupt and possibly even assassinate key figures of the opposition, including Machado and Unitary Platform presidential candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia..On the morning of July 18, Machado and her team left their lodging in Barquisimeto, Lara and were greeted with vandalized vehicles. Two trucks used by Machado and her team were beaten and defaced with slogans such as "no mas bloqueo," or "no more blocking" in English, written in white paint on the sides, rear, and front of the vehicles. Machado stated that the vehicles' "crankcases" were opened and drained of oil before pointing to one of the vehicles, on which brake lines had been severed..Machado stated the cut brake lines were "clearly an attempt on the lives of those who use these vehicles," before stressing that this incident occurred a mere ten days prior to Venezuela's general elections.."Cutting the brakes on one of the vehicles is a clear affront to the lives of those who travel there. This, in addition to the arbitrary detention of his head of security in recent hours, are very serious facts that cannot be tolerated in any respect," Popular Will, a center-right political party within Venezuela and member of the Unitary Platform, stated following the news..This defacement came a mere day after the detention of Machado's Head of Security, Milciades Ávila, by Venezuelan authorities in what Machado's party, Vente Venezuela, claims to have violated "all legal proceedings." Ávila is not the only party member targeted in recent times, with Edmundo Gonzalez's campaign manager in the Monagas state, Angel Aristimuño, arrested on July 13 for unstated reasons.."Each repressive action of the regime plunges it deeper into the electoral defeat that we Venezuelans have already given it," Maria G Hernández Del Castillo, the Deputy to the National Assembly for Monagas and President of the Environment Commission of the National Assembly, stated following news of the arrest of Aristimuño..These arrests are two of many, as Maduro seeks to consolidate power through the direct political repression of members of the Unitary Platform. It seems the ruling president has not only used official means in his war against political freedom, as on July 10, armed men attacked the house in which Machado resided during her visit to Táchira on July 4, as election day looms closer for the nation. The news of the attack was revealed by the president of the El Amparo Foundation and director of the International Committee against Impunity in Venezuela (Ciciven), Walter Márquez, during a press conference..One of the guards was reportedly gagged and beaten by the assailants, before searching the home for information related to the party, the Unitary Platform, and interrogating the guard alongside his comrade about the truck Machado used for tours. Márquez stated the attack followed a number of interference in operations conducted by the Unitary Platform, citing the forced closure of restaurants that are owned by members of the opposition on June 26..On June 28, authorities arrested staff serving Machado before transporting those detained to a special police unit known as Special Action Forces (FAES), which interrogated those detained regarding the actions of Machado before attempting to intimidate those held by claiming Machado was guilty of betraying her country according to Márquez. Authorities further arrested Machado's drivers, confiscating their vehicles before their release the next day..Márquez stated he formally initiated a complaint to the Public Prosecutor's Office, a complaint they had originally refused to accept, stating that Márquez did not have power of attorney to represent those detained by authorities as he refused to reveal their names..Following the Prosecutor's Office refusal, Márquez stated that his organization would file a complaint with the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights and the International Criminal Court (ICC)..Trouble at Polling Stations.Prior to the official disqualification of Machado and arrest warrants for opposition members, a number of reports surfaced alleging acts of violence and intimidation occurred during the opposition's primaries in October..In the Guarataro neighborhood of Caracas, the nation's capital, residents reported gangs of armed men roaming the streets, preventing polling stations from being installed in the area. Shootings in the neighborhood were also reported as voters attempted to reach polling stations to cast their ballots..In the Candelaria neighborhood, one elderly voter was run over by a car while waiting in the polling line, and further reports stated that tear gas had been utilized at one polling center in the capital..Despite these reports, Jesus Casal, the President of the National Primary Assembly—the governing body overseeing the primaries—assured the media that "citizens are voting in peace.".Violence is not the only reported offense against voters, as those heading to the polls in the San Bernardino neighborhood located within the capital were barred from voting after officials found booths locked with "school locks and crazy glue." In Maturín, the state capital of Venezuela's Monagas state, voters reported the power being cut at a voting station, delaying attempts to submit their votes.."[Four] thousand people came to vote. As of 10:00 a.m., 507 people have voted," one voter stated on X..Despite reported violence and sabotage, Bower Rosas, the coordinator of the Vente Nueva Esparta movement, a pro-democratic party that disavows socialism, assured the media that measures were undertaken to ensure a fair election.."We are demonstrating to the citizens that we are working toward electing a suitable person who can lead the destiny of the country," Rosas told Reporte Confidencial. "We knew what could happen today, and that's why we already had plan B, and plan B is already working.".The Future of the Elections.As Venezuelans take to the polls, Maduro has established he is not willing to relinquish his firm and enduring hold on power. While the ruling party claims the will of the Venezuelan people stands behind Maduro, numerous polls have placed the president firmly behind the Unitary Platform, finding the Unitary Platform enjoys a 20-40 percent lead in voter intention. Numerous possibilities have arisen regarding the ultimate outcome of the election, and the election day itself..The first theory closely mirrors what occurred during the opposition primaries, where armed groups of men—whether in direct employment of the state or hired criminal gangs—may arrive at polling sites in an effort to limit who has the ability to vote and coerce those intending to cast their vote for the opposition to change it instead to Maduro's United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). This strategy of coercion would force Venezuelans to remain home on voting day, granting Maduro a significant leg up over the opposition. There also remains the possibility of the lack of deployment of polling sites to regions with large support for the Unitary Platform, "accidents" surrounding polling stations ranging from the aforementioned case of locking booths, and blatant political violence as Maduro sees the election as the possibility of the end of his reign..This strategy is highly likely as Maduro's regime has already interfered with the upcoming election, disallowing millions of Venezuelans living outside of the nation from voting abroad. In Colombia specifically, 7,200 of the 1.9 million Venezuelans allowed to vote abroad were able to register amid reports of the inability to switch polling stations, logistical problems, and poor communication with the CNE regarding voting abroad. Despite these struggles, polling stations dominated by Chavistas, those belonging to the ideology of late President Hugo Chavez who was Maduro's predecessor who died in 2013, have benefited from more transfers than those outside the ideology's grip. 1,260,484 newly registered voters have been registered in polling stations that have been historically aligned with Chavism, while only 768,061 have registered at polling stations that favor the opposition, according to the Caracas Chronicles..These efforts to curb voting outside of Venezuela act as blatant evidence of Maduro's continued attempts to cling to power, disallowing those who are most likely to vote against Maduro, and those who were forced to flee the country's abysmal economic situation, security crisis, and political repression, in a bid to remain in power..What is most likely for Maduro's regime is widespread voter fraud, a common tactic used by politicians across the world. This would be the easiest for Maduro's government to accomplish as thousands of polling stations are located in remote areas of Venezuela that are also bastions of the PSUV's voter base. This makes overseeing votes difficult for observers, allowing officials loyal to Maduro to interfere with the democratic process with relative ease. Votes from abroad, while few in comparison to those who have the ability to vote outside the country, pose another threat to a fair election due to the CNE's close relationship with Maduro..In a similar strategy used during the opposition primaries, Maduro could slow down polling stations in the Unitary Platform's own political bastions either through direct sabotage or by understaffing and delaying the opening of polling stations there. This tactic, which has already seen use, has often been referred to as "Operation Turtle," seeking to slow down the operations of polling stations outside of the PSUV's power base, resulting in either prospective voters giving up and returning home or the closure of polling stations before voting has fully concluded. While Operation Turtle focuses on delaying voting in centers of the opposition, polling stations in regions loyal to the PSUV often advertise a number of bonuses compared to their opposition counterparts, including free food, quick service, and friendly staff, among other benefits..Maduro's regime may also utilize hardcore supporters of the PSUV to intimidate and block voters for the opposition as previously seen with the opposition's failure to register Corina Yoris in late March. The ability to interfere with the opposition's voter base is further facilitated by the location of much of the voter base. Many of the opposition live in urban centers of Venezuela where existing infrastructure allows for the ease of transport of these rabid supporters or paid actors to harass the opposition..If Maduro needs more time to rig the vote, the CNE may declare a postponement of counting and announcing votes either through claims of power outages, as previously seen blamed on the opposition, or through the supposed harassment of sites loyal to the PSUV. This postponement would allow corrupt officials loyal to Maduro more time to create fraudulent votes while also allowing the president to further slander the opposition, which he has commonly referred to as members of the "far-right" and "fascists.".In the case of an opposition victory, Maduro may push his own probable policies revolving around electoral fraud onto the opposition, riling up those loyal to the PSUV in an attempt to overturn the result of the election in a similar manner as former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, whose supporters famously stormed the capitol on January 8th, 2023. Unlike Bolsonaro, who failed to secure the loyalty of Brazil's military, Maduro likely enjoys broad support from Venezuela's own military, which in turn gives the president the ability to launch a self-coup in the face of defeat..In an effort to counteract the threat of electoral fraud, the Unitary Platform has put their faith in a large number of electoral observers in an effort to counteract any subversive attacks by Maduro. These observers will likely have to face the same intimidation tactics employed during the opposition's primaries that will likely target opposition voters on Sunday. In an effort to calm nerves prior to the election, thus ensuring voter turnout stands at a desirable level, the opposition previously announced that these electoral monitors will be able to cover over 90 percent of Venezuela's voting centers. However, Maduro's regime was quick to react, announcing further limitations on electoral observers, limiting those who seek to watch over the democratic process at polling stations they themselves have been registered with..This strategy has drawbacks, however, as large-scale anti-government protests concentrated in Venezuela's cities are sure to follow any massive case of voter fraud, while the reimposition of sanctions by the United States is all but guaranteed. Despite these risks, this move would be the most likely for Maduro as with the firm support of the military, the president could easily weather protests and may even seize the opportunity to launch widespread arrests of opposition leaders, activists, and other non-government-aligned figures..Quite possibly the least likely of end results for the election lies in Venezuela's claim to the Essequibo region of Guyana. Once on the front page of news publications across the world, this claim launched by Maduro has since quieted down in recent months. In October 2023, Maduro's regime launched a referendum regarding Venezuela's claim on the oil-rich Essequibo region of Guyana to the east. Five questions related to the disputed territory were on this referendum, many of which spoke against the established protocols regarding the disputed territory and decried Guyana's claim on the territory..Following the referendum, a tense diplomatic crisis unfolded, pitting Venezuela, supported by the Russian Federation, against Guyana, supported by the United States, Brazil, and the United Kingdom. Brazil announced further "defensive actions" across their shared border with both Venezuela and Guyana in order to be prepared for a full-scale conflict between the two and in an effort to encourage Venezuela to back down with a show of firepower..Ultimately the Essequibo question petered out in interest from both media outlets and analysts, with many suggesting the referendum and call for the region were intended to gauge support for Maduro prior to the election. But the possibility remains that the president may orchestrate a military operation against neighboring Guyana, declaring a state of exemption, keeping him in power. This outcome is highly unlikely, however, as pitting Venezuela in a war against Guyana would not only lead to a large deal of internal strife as those aligned with the opposition take to the streets to protest against the conflict but would also lead to a lengthy military conflict with major world powers such as the United States and the United Kingdom supporting Guyana indirectly if not directly..This war would similarly lead to widespread condemnation from the international community as further sanctions are likely to be placed upon Venezuela, intensifying the abysmal economic situation..The final possibility lies in Edmundo Gonzalez himself. If Gonzalez were to win the presidential race, and Maduro does not wish to contest the vote as seen in Brazil, the president may seek to bargain with the opposition in order to retain power. This could come in many different ways, either through a coercive dialogue wherein Maduro "offers" an impressive cadre of advisors and staff members who are in reality loyal to either Maduro himself or the PSUV, or through the negotiation of a power-sharing agreement, handing over a fraction of power to the opposition in a bid to retain his own hold on the nation and limit his opponents' power..As election day looms ever closer, the future of Venezuela lies in the balance between continued oppression under the iron fist of Nicolas Maduro and the slight, yet possible, option of a new dawn for Venezuela and a return to democratic principles under Edmundo Gonzalez. Ultimately, until ballots are cast, Maduro holds the power, and only election day will demonstrate where the power in Venezuela truly lies—with Maduro or the people.