Fleeting Peace in the DRC

The President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Felix Tshisekedi, has stated that the DRC will no longer participate in the Nairobi process, a peace process aimed at bettering the insecurity which plagues the eastern DRC, after referring to the process as "almost dead.".A Further Departure.The Nairobi process, established in Kenya, was one of two parallel processes aimed at easing tensions and, ideally, ending the insecurity in the eastern DRC. The Nairobi process was established alongside the Luanda process, negotiated in Angola..The primary purpose of the Luanda process was to de-escalate tensions between Rwanda and the DRC, which is threatening to boil over into war. Rwanda accused the DRC of shelling its territory on several occasions, and the DRC accused Rwanda of supporting the March 23 Movement (M23) rebels, one of the DRC's largest and most powerful armed groups. The Nairobi process sought to establish peace processes regarding the DRC's armed groups, including the M23..The processes established a roadmap for cooperation between Rwanda and the DRC and several means to de-escalate tensions, as well as called for armed groups in the eastern DRC, including the M23 and the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR)—a militant organization based in the eastern DRC that, in its origin, was formed primarily out of former genocidaires from the Rwandan genocide—to disarm..The Nairobi process orchestrated the deployment of the East African Community Regional Force (EACRF) to the DRC at the end of 2022 in order to assist the DRC in pacifying the more than 120 armed groups that operate there. The DRC deemed the deployment to be a failure, due to them not actively engaging militant groups..The EACRF oversaw a multitude of withdrawals of M23 rebels as a part of agreements reached during the Nairobi process, but the DRC wished them to actively combat the M23. Due to this, the EACRF's mandate was not renewed, and the EACRF withdrew at the end of 2023..Following the Luanda process, tensions continued to heighten between Rwanda and the DRC, again primarily over Rwanda's alleged support of the M23, support that has been corroborated and evidenced by UN reports, but continually denied by Rwanda..Both processes have ultimately failed to progress. However, the Nairobi process appears to be coming to an effective end, as President Tshisekedi referred to it as "almost dead," criticizing Kenyan President William Ruto on the matter.."There are two processes. There was the Nairobi Process driven by Uhuru Kenyatta which, unfortunately, was subsequently managed by the new president William Ruto. He managed it very badly. The process is almost dead, apart from the fact that the designated facilitator, Uhuru Kenyatta, has stayed on. President Ruto has taken up Rwanda's cause." -President of the DRC, Felix Tshisekedi.Kenya and the DRC have had a number of different diplomatic issues in recent times that have served to significantly sour relations between the two..Relations took a large hit with the DRC's perceived failure of the EACRF to solve the insecurity in the east. Kenya held a central role in the mission, and so they were blamed for the path it took. In addition, Congolese opposition politicians in December announced the creation of the Congo River Alliance (AFC), an association of Congolese politicians, the M23, and a few other small armed groups. The politician announced the AFC's creation in Nairobi, prompting accusations from the DRC that Kenya was hosting terror groups..It is worth noting that no M23 delegation was present in Kenya at the time of the announcement, and further that the politicians and other armed groups have little effect over the AFC, and so the AFC is effectively just the M23, who forms the overwhelming majority of its forces and its prominent leadership..Due to the formation of the AFC taking place within Kenya, the DRC withdrew its ambassador from Kenya..While the ambassador was reinstated in early May, relations have remained rocky, particularly since the end of May when President Ruto publicly questioned the involvement of Rwanda with the M23 during an interview with Jeune Afrique and The Africa Report.."As heads of state, we asked in a meeting, are the M23 Rwandan or Congolese? And the DRC said they were Congolese. End of debate. If they are Congolese, how does it become Rwanda's problem?" -Kenyan President William Ruto.It is likely this interview is what President Tshisekedi referenced when he claimed President Ruto had "taken up Rwanda's cause.".Hope in Luanda.President Tshisekedi further stated that the DRC was now dependent upon the Luanda process to create progress towards peace. While there is still movement in the Luanda process, it is minimal..President Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame agreed in March to meet each other face to face, in a meeting mediated by Angolan President Joao Lourenco, in order to diffuse tensions between the two nation..The agreement came after several months of particularly inflammatory rhetoric from both sides, the most notable of which was a promise from President Tshisekedi prior to the DRC's election on December 20th to, if he was re-elected, declare war on Rwanda if their support for the M23 continued..While this support has seemingly not faltered, President Tshisekedi later walked back on his threat..Despite the agreement to meet having been reached several months ago, no such meeting has taken place. Further, it has not even been scheduled. There is no official reason for why this is..Outside entities, such as the UN, US, EU, and more, have expressed support for the revival of both the Nairobi and Luanda processes. While there appears to be no interest in reviving the Nairobi process, there remains a chance for the Luanda process, however that will require effort to be made on both sides, neither of which appear keen to put in..Hopes were particularly high after the establishment of a temporary "humanitarian truce" between the M23 and the DRC. The truce, which was brokered by the US, went into effect on July 5th. It was set to expire on July 19th, but was extended an additional 15 days and is now set to expire on August 5th. It is unclear if the relevant parties will successfully extend the truce again..Notably, the truce only stand between the M23 and the DRC, and so violence at the hands of the myriad of other armed groups has continued..These hopes are likely to be slashed with Tshisekedi's declaration of the Nairobi process, relevant to the DRC's armed groups, being dead.