Israel Prepares for Potential Iranian Retaliation Amid Heightened Airspace Risks

Israel is on high alert, preparing for a potential attack from Iran and its allies in response to the recent deaths of several high-profile Iranian leaders. Iran has signaled a strong retaliation, which is expected to impact civil aviation across the Middle East significantly.

The anticipated consequences for civil aviation include increased risks at airports in Israel, unexpected FIR (Flight Information Region) closures, heightened incidents of GPS spoofing, and the threat of drones and missiles intersecting airways. These risks are expected to affect operations in and over Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.

Israel Risk

With an attack imminent, the risk at all Israeli airports is greatly increased, surpassing even the current situation amid the war in Gaza. LLBG/Tel Aviv and other Israeli airports are likely to close once the attack commences and may remain closed for several days. GPS spoofing, already at high levels in the region, is expected to escalate further. The recent increase in the intensity and methodology of spoofing could impact aircraft systems even at distances of 200nm+ from Israel.

Airspace Closures – Iraq, Iran, Jordan, and Others

If an aerial attack is launched from Iran, short-notice closures of the Baghdad FIR (Iraq – ORBB), Tehran FIR (Iran – OIIX), and Amman FIR (Jordan – OJAC) are very likely. As things stand, the most likely timing for the commencement is Friday or Saturday night (August 2/3).

For Middle East transits (e.g., Europe-Asia and vice versa), there are two primary routes to avoid the likely closures:

1. North Routes via Pakistan – Afghanistan – Turkmenistan – Azerbaijan – onwards over Turkey/Black Sea. Expect strong GPS spoofing over the Black Sea (ongoing and not related to the Israel conflict).
2. South Routes via Saudi Arabia – Egypt – Mediterranean. On this route, an airway south of Sharm-El-Sheikh is recommended to avoid proximity to the conflict in Israel. GPS spoofing can also be expected on southerly routes within 100nm of Cairo VOR.

Further airspace closures with lower impact on overflying traffic are likely to include the Beirut FIR (Lebanon – OLBB), and possibly the Damascus FIR (Syria – OSDI). Another possibility is the closure of portions of Egyptian and Saudi airspace, which would severely impact capacity.

Airline Suspensions

A significant indicator of risk levels is the response of airlines to the evolving situation:

• Lufthansa has canceled all flights to Israel through August 8.
• Delta has canceled all flights to Israel.
• United has canceled all flights to Israel.
• British Airlines has canceled all flights to Israel.