New Support for Mali’s Tuaregs Could Expand Conflict

A former politician under Niger's President Mohamed Bazoum—the nation's first democratically elected leader who was toppled in a military coup in July 2023— has reaffirmed his support for the Strategic Framework for the Defense of the People of Azawad (CSP-DPA), an umbrella group of Tuareg rebels who are fighting the Malian military junta and their Russian mercenary allies..Rhissa Ag Boula, the Nigerien former minister in question, announced in an August 3rd communique that his political movement—Conseil de la Resistance pour la Republique du Niger (CRR)—"is actively involved both militarily and politically in the struggle of the people of Azawad and Macina.".The communique comes as a video emerged this week of a group of Tuaregs, allegedly from Libya, stating their intent to support the CSP-DPA should the Nigerien government send their own support forces to aid the Malian army (FAMA), who suffered a brutal defeat at the hands of the Tuaregs and Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) late last month..Preceding the appearance of that video online was a phone call between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and the Malian and Burkinabe Foreign Ministers, during which Lavrov proposed increased training for the Malian armed forces by Russian 'military advisors'—who are more often than not mercenaries..These recent developments threaten a widening of the multidimensional conflicts plaguing the Sahel, coinciding with the completion of the US withdrawal from its airbase 201 in Niger today..What You Need to Know.The CRR was formed in late 2023 by Rhissa Ag Boula, a former Tuareg rebel who participated in the Tuareg rebellions in Niger in the mid 1990s and then again in the late 2000s..One month after the nation's 2010 military coup, which ousted President Mamadou Tandja and brought in the 'Supreme Council for the Restoration of Democracy' (CSRD) under Salou Djibou, a Nigerien military officer, Rhissa was arrested for his role in the recent rebellion. Cleared of all charges in 2010, Rhissa re-entered the Nigerien political space..After General Abdourahamane Tiani toppled President Bazoum on July 26th, Rhissa, allegedly in Paris, announced the creation of the CRR, which claimed its aim is to restore the Nigerien civilian government by "any means.".Interestingly, in 2012, as the Tuareg rebellion once again flared in Mali, Rhissa—who was in government by this time— stated, "we must prevent this Malian conflict from spreading throughout the Saharan region.".Since the wave of coups swept West Africa and the Sahel, and the creation of the 'coup belt,' militancy has exploded, with the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) between Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali proving thus far ill-equipped to adequately tackle the issue of insurgency within their borders..Evidence of this failure lies in the recent defeat of Malian and Russian forces near the Malian commune of Tinzaouten, near the Algerian border, which left at least 80 Russian mercenaries dead..The battle of Tinzaouten created a diplomatic storm, with Ukraine moving to claim their intelligence office played a part in the coordination of the ambush, prompting the Malian government to cut diplomatic ties, while the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)—the regional body which the AES states left in January—condemned "any foreign interference in the region that may constitute a threat to peace and security in West Africa, as well as any attempt aimed at dragging the region into current geopolitical clashes.".The ECOWAS communique, dated August 5th, expressed its firm commitment "and constant availability in favor of any initiative aimed at working for peace, security, and stability in the sub-region," signalling its hope of the reintegration of the AES states into ECOWAS..The Ukrainian claim, although a strategic move, served to further push Mali into the Russian sphere of influence as Moscow reiterated its intent to foster ties with the country in all realms, just as Bamako cut diplomatic ties with Ukraine—in an attempt to illustrate the "neo-Nazi and villainous nature of the Ukrainian authorities.".Rhissa had already called on its elements in Niger as well as "all the people of Azawad" to mobilize and join the CSP-DPA in October 2023, although since then the CRR's communiques have grown increasingly urgent..In its August 3rd publication the CRR reminded "the Niger authorities that if they decide to send troops to Azawad to support the genocidaries of Bamako, the CRR, as well as all allied movements and fronts, will open hostilities against Niger and in all its regions."."We call on the different components of the Defense and Security Forces (FDS) to refuse orders to die without ideals," the communique said..So, What Now?.Based off the statements in this communique, should the AES send reinforcements to Mali as they are bound to do through the Alliance's charter, the result would be the imminent expansion of the Tuareg conflict in Mali to its neighbors..Furthermore, the alleged Libyan Tuareg's pledging of support to the CSP-DPA would most likely result in weapons shipments from Libya to Mali, further intensifying a conflict that has already seen the use of Turkish drones to strike civilian infrastructure as well as the hacking of civilians with axes by Russian mercenaries..Already, Malian civilians are fleeing en masse into Algeria for fear of an escalation of the conflict.