Egypt Steps into Somalia as Ethiopia Likely Stepping Out

Egypt, alongside Djibouti, has committed troops to contribute to the upcoming African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which is set to begin in 2025. The Egyptian troops will act as a replacement for Ethiopian troops, which Somalia is threatening to expel. Presently, Ethiopia's troops are stationed in the country as a part of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS)..Filling the Gap.AUSSOM is meant to take over from ATMIS in assisting the Somali government in maintaining security in the nation. In the interest of increasing Somalia's security independence, AUSSOM is supposed to be a smaller deployment than ATMIS..As a part of ATMIS, Ethiopia has approximately 3,000 troops stationed in Somalia. As Somalia's neighbor, and a previous target of cross-border attacks by the Somali militant group Al-Shabaab, Ethiopia has held a vested interest in reducing Al-Shabaab's influence..However, since January, relations between Ethiopia and Somalia have soured immensely, as Ethiopia has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland, an unrecognized but de-facto independent region in the north of Somalia..The MoU, in short, grants Ethiopia access to the Somaliland port of Berbera and allows them the ability to establish a military and commercial port there, in exchange for an official Ethiopian recognition of Somaliland's independence..The terms of the deal have yet to be fulfilled, as Somalia has denounced it as a violation of their sovereignty, and vowed to defend their territory..While Ethiopia has yet to go through with the deal, they also have yet to back down from it, and so tensions have remained high..As a part of the tensions, Somalia has threatened to expel Ethiopia's troops that are stationed in the country by the end of the year. While ATMIS was set to retire anyways, an expulsion means that Ethiopia would not be taking part in the new mission..The new mission is set to begin in January. There have been questions as to which nations would contribute to the new mission, particularly with the potential expulsion of Ethiopian troops..The question has, in part, been answered with Egypt and Djibouti offering their own troops in place of Ethiopia's..The Egyptian Angle.Egypt appearing willing to take over for Ethiopia is particularly significant, as Egypt has its own gripes with Ethiopia..In the context of the MoU between Ethiopia and Somaliland, Egypt has offered its explicit support to Somalia, even threatening a potential intervention if Somalia were to call for it.."Egypt will not allow anyone to threaten Somalia or affect its security… Do not try Egypt, or try to threaten its brothers especially if they ask it to intervene." -Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi in January 2024.President El-Sisi further added that his "message to Ethiopia is that … trying to seize a piece of land to control it is something no one will agree to.".Prior to this, Egypt has had a tense relationship with Ethiopia over construction projects being carried out on the Nile..The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam saw veiled threats by Egypt toward Ethiopia of military action, as Ethiopia went ahead with the construction of the dam despite staunch Ethiopian, and at times Sudanese, opposition..The dam was constructed by Ethiopia beginning in 2011, and first opening in 2020, on the Blue Nile River. Egypt fears that the dam's construction will threaten their water access due to significantly restricting the flow of the Nile, which Egypt relies upon for 97 percent of its water needs..Since the announcement of the project up until now, negotiations on the construction of the dam, it's function, and specifics of water flow have been subject to a series of negotiations between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan. Repeatedly, however, negotiations have broken down..Ethiopia constructed the dam in order to address it's electricity concerns, with large sections of the country having scarce electricity availability..In 2013, Egyptian political leaders accidentally televised live a meeting in which they were discussing an International Panel of Experts report on the dam where they discussed ways to destroy the dam. Those attending the meeting and discussing the dams destruction were unaware it was being televised live..In 2021, Egyptian President El-Sisi stated that "I am telling our brothers in Ethiopia, let's not reach the point where you touch a drop of Egypt's water, because all options are open.".Similarly to Egypt, in 2021 an advisor to Sudanese military government leader Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan spoke of a "water war that would be more horrible than one could imagine.".In 2019, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed stated that "no force can stop Ethiopia from building a dam. If there is need to go to war, we could get millions readied.".While the tensions have not resulted in conflict, tensions will likely still continue to rise, as the UN estimates Egypt could "run out" of water by 2025, with the nation being in a water deficit of 7 billion cubic metres per year..The deployment of Egyptian troops to Somalia, particularly after Egypt declared its solidarity to Somalia against Ethiopia, creates a uniquely tense situation between the three nations. While Somalia's ability to militaristically stand up for its claimed territory has been called into question, significant Egyptian backing could change the situation, and assist in setting the stage for an escalation of the crisis.