Nicaraguan President Offers Fighters for Maduro's Regime

Daniel Ortega, the socialist president of Nicaragua and supporter of Nicolas Maduro, offered his Venezuelan counterpart Sandinista fighters during a Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA) summit on Tuesday. The armed fighters, if Venezuela allows their presence within the country, could play a vital role in the case of an all-out civil war within Venezuela. Tensions between Maduro's regime and the opposition continue to mount as the president continues his campaign of political repression against his detractors..The "Contrarrevolución"This possible civil struggle between opposition forces and Maduro's regime was described by Ortega as a "contrarrevolución armada," or "counter revolution" in English, a conflict which in Ortega's mind would be "much larger" than the Sandinista Revolution in Nicaragua in 1979 which deposed to Somoza regime and led to Ortega eventually rising to power. Ortega stated this conflict would be much larger and deadlier due to the presence of the Colombian Armed Forces, Colombian mercenaries, and paramilitaries such as Clan del Golfo who are a common threat in northern Colombia..This claim of Colombian involvement is unlikely to be realized if indeed an internal conflict erupts within Venezuela due to Gustavo Petro's, the president of Colombia, lesser reaction in comparison to other Latin American leaders such as Chilean Gabriel Boric and his Argentine counterpart, Javier Milei. These two leaders took to X shortly after Maduro's announced victory in the country's July 28th presidential election, both casting doubts on the legitimacy of the election.Petro, on the other hand, has not outwardly spoken out against Maduro like his neighboring counterparts, instead only requesting that Venezuela's National Electoral Council (CNE), which is the authority in regard to elections within the country, release all voting records confirming Maduro's victory. This request was part of a joint statement between Petro and his Brazilian counterpart, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, which has resulted in some friction between the two nations and Maduro's regime.Relations between Venezuela and Brazil further suffered following a interview of Lula in which the head of state called Maduro's regime “very unpleasant ” with an “authoritarian slant.” This statement led to backlash from Ortega, who cut all diplomatic relationships with Brazil before claiming Lula wished to become the spokesman for the United States. These statements follow increasing scrutiny over Venezuela's disputed election as the CNE has failed to release voting records proving Maduro's supposed victory in the election..Fears of a possible internal conflict within Venezuela have recently been raised following continued repression by Maduro's regime targeting numerous members of the opposition. These fears were further stoked following a joint statement released by Maria Corina Machado, the leader and former presidential candidate of the opposition alliance known as the Unitary Platform, and Edmundo González Urrutia, the same alliance's presidential candidate. In this statement, the pair called upon members of Venezuela's police force and lower enlisted within the military to join the opposition in resistance to Maduro's continued rule, leading to the Attorney General's office announcing an investigation into the pair for crimes against the state.These calls follow the CNE's continued failure to publish voting records which has acted as the catalyst for demonstrations against Maduro's regime. Since the president's announced victory on July 29th, both Machado and González refused to acknowledge Maduro's victory, claiming that Maduro engaged in electoral fraud in order to secure six more years in prison.Amid criticisms regarding the CNE's continued failure, the opposition has published their own records which were collected from 80 percent of all polling stations in the country. These records show that González won the election by 67 percent of the vote and are the only records published for the public's consumption in lieu of evidence provided by the CNE..This publication only further strengthened the resolve of the opposition and bought key allies within the international community including the Colombian Congress, who declared Maduro's victory illegitimate, and the United States who declared González as the true victor in this year's election. With both Colombia's government and Lula distancing themselves from Maduro, the president's possible allies in the international community have largely decreased, with only a handful of nations, including Nicaragua, Honduras, and the Russian Federation, among others, recognizing Maduro's alleged right to rule.The Arrest and Detention of the OppositionSince the conclusion of the presidential election, demonstrations against Maduro's alleged victory have shaken Venezuela to its very core. In an effort to squash any resistance, Maduro's regime has begun a fierce campaign of political repression characterized by numerous arrests of opposition figures and those taking part in protests across the country. Those arrested include key members of the parties consisting of the Unitary Alliance, including regional directors of both Vente Venezuela, Machado party, and Popular Will. Others arrested even include members of the Venezuelan government, as two prosecutors were previously arrested for refusing to try protestors arrested by Venezuelan authorities. These two have been identified as Rosa María Mota, a prosecutor in the Apure State, and Maglen Marin Rodriguez, who worked as a temporary prosecutor in Anzoátegui State..Currently, 1,674 people have been detained by Venezuelan authorities as of August 24 including 216 women and 107 minors according to Foro Penal, a human rights non-governmental organization. This number is a notable increase from the previous reported 1,416 people as of August 17 but remains under the previous reported total by Venezuela's Prosecutor's Office which stands at 2,200 people. According to the United Nations' mission to Venezuela, minors detained by Venezuelan authorities have been held and tried without parental supervision, a violation of International Law under Article 40 of the Convention on the Rights of the Child.These arrests are mere battles amid a war between Maduro's regime and the Venezuelan people, as numerous politically motivated arrests and detentions have been previously reported throughout the campaigning period leading up to the election. Notable among them is the case of six Venezuelan asylees who sought shelter within Argentina's embassy to Venezuela in Caracas, the capital. These six were struck with arrest warrants amid increasing attacks on the opposition and sought shelter with Argentine diplomatic staff, resulting in Venezuelan authorities besieging the diplomatic premises in an effort to force the Argentine representatives to turn over the group. During this siege, electricity was shut off to the embassy leading to a further damper in relations between the two countries..This diplomatic crisis only worsened following the expulsion of Argentina's diplomatic staff from Venezuela after the former's denunciation of Maduro's victory, casting worries on the future of the six residing in the diplomatic premises. Following their expulsion and questions regarding the safety of the asylees, Argentina's representative to the Organization of American States (OAS) called upon the international community to rebuke Maduro's regime while casting a light regarding communications between the two entities.“He [Maduro] tells the persons who have been given asylum to exit with the Argentine diplomats … they say it’s just an administrative matter that Argentina should resolve, but how if they don’t let them out? Do the asylees have wings so as to fly?” The representative told the permanent council of the OAS. “Given the lack of guarantees without safeguarding the physical integrity or safety of our asylees, the Argentine Republic sounds an alert, a warning on this situation.”Following the expulsion, Brazil took control of Argentina’s Embassy, taking on the embassy’s role in aiding Argentinians in Venezuela and securing the safety of the six asylees residing within the embassy. Brazil also took control of both Chile and Peru’s diplomatic premises, whose diplomatic staff were similarly dispelled from Venezuela due to their own denunciation of Maduro, allowing citizens of those nations to continued being cared for..Amid continued efforts to crackdown on the opposition, Maduro and his United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) have launched efforts to pervert Venezuela's legal system to further strengthen the PSUV and limit the opposition. These efforts include a new law against "fascism," an ideology commonly attributed to the opposition by Maduro and his allies in government, alongside a reform to the Law of Political Parties by the National Assembly, a law originally put into effect in 1965 which regulates public meetings, protests, and demonstrations connected to political parties and provides the government with various abilities to counter parties that promote violence, racial or religious hatred, or actions against the constitutional order. This reform would allow the government to disqualify and bar political parties if they refuse to accept Maduro's alleged victory which was confirmed by Venezuela's Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ) on Thursday.This ruling led to widespread criticism from both the opposition and international observers, with many alleging the TSJ does not hold the power to rule on electoral results as this duty falls squarely on the CNE. Despite these criticisms, Caryslia Rodríguez, the President of the Supreme Court of Justice and the Electoral Chamber, stated that the disputed election was settled “in a definitive manner."“Based on the results obtained in the expert examination process, we can conclude that the bulletins issued by the CNE are backed by the scrutiny records generated by each of the voting machines used in the electoral process. These records are fully consistent with the database of the National Totalization Centers,” Rodríguez stated..“This chamber validates the results of the July 28 presidential election issued by the National Electoral Council, where Nicolás Maduro Moros was elected as President of Venezuela for the constitutional period 2025-2031,” the president of the TSJ continued.Not only did this ruling by the TSJ allow for the National Assembly to press for a reform of the Law of Political Parities, it also acted as legitmization of Maduro's victory in the form of legal support. Despite these efforts to attain legitimization, both the international community and the opposition have refused to accept Maduro's victory, leading to further arrests and threats by the regime.Foreign VolunteersWith Ortega's vocal support and even a promise to provide fighters for Maduro's regime, the threat of an internal armed conflict has only intensified, as has the threat to the lives of all Venezuelans who reside within the nation. While these volunteers may be an effort to strengthen Maduro's hold on power, the announced armed support could act as a deterrent for an armed "counter-revolution" against Maduro.The oppositon's hopes for a change in management of Venezuela looks to continue to point to an armed conflict within Venezuela as Maduro has made it clear he will not give up his hold on power anytime soon. If an internal armed conflict were to break out, the opposition would have to rely on attracting members of Venezuela's police and armed forces as previously expressed in the joint statement by Machado and González due to Venezuelan government's disamrament of the Venezuelan people in 2012 under the reign of Hugo Chávez. This disarmament was, on paper, an effort to stamp out crime within Venezuela which skyrocketed due to the economic hardship which hit the nation following the drop in the price of crude oil, one of Venezuela's key exports, and rampant corruption within the government.Maduro's alleged victory is a key point of interest within Venezuelan history as continued political turmoil is sure to continue alongside economic decline and an exodus of Venezuelans from their home country. This likely exodus was first evidenced in June by ORC Consultores, a Venezuelan polling and consulting firm, in a poll which stated that one third of Venezuelans would leave Venezuela if Maduro won the election. This mass immigration would not only damage Venezuela, but put further pressure on neighboring Latin American nations such as Colombia, Chile, and Ecuador alongside criminal organizations such as Tren de Aragua who profit off of human trafficking of those fleeing the country.