What Led to Further ELN Attacks?

The ELN has been active within Colombia since 1964 and has since become one of the nation's largest players within the Colombian Conflict, an ongoing 60-year internal conflict between various politically-motivated armed groups, drug cartels, and government forces. Attempts at securing peace between the armed group and the government have risen and waned since their formation, however, many believed a significant peace deal could be negotiated between the two following the ascension of the nation's first leftist president and former guerilla, Gustavo Petro.

Petro largely campaigned upon the promise of bringing "total peace" to Colombia, aiming to end the Colombian Conflict through a series of peace deals with militant factions within the country with the eventual goal of complete disarmament and disbandment similar to the 2016 peace deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) under President Juan Manuel Santos. Petro successfully reached peace deals with both the ELN and a splinter faction of the FARC known as the Estado Mayor Central (FARC-EMC) granting some credence to the president's ambitious plan to end the decades of bloodshed.

This plan for total peace has largely fallen apart in recent months amid increasing tensions between the government, the ELN, and FARC-EMC. In late March, 2024, the FARC-EMC were involved in a confrontation with an indigenous community after attempting to forcibly recruit minors in their fight against the government. Locals attempted to intervene in the kidnapping, leading to the death of one of the community's leaders and the injury of two others. In response to the attack, Petro suspended the ceasefire with the FARC-EMC in Cauca, Valle del Cauca, and Nariño leading to bloody skirmishes between the armed group and Colombian authorities.

Negotiations with the ELN have largely waned as well despite efforts from Colombia's Minister of Peace, Otty Patiño, who is also the leader of the peace delegation to the ELN. As previously mentioned, talks for the continuation of the ceasefire between the Colombian government and the ELN suffered heavily following the latter's decision to engage in talks with the Nariño front, leading the ELN to claim this front was in actuality, created by the Colombian government in an effort to target the organization's leadership in one of the group’s publications, Insurreccion 947.

Furthermore, the publication states that this issue was brought up by the organization’s official negotiators at meetings with the Colombian government but were ultimately ignored, resulting in the ELN leaving the talks.

Both the ELN and FARC-EMC pose a large threat to authorities largely due to the consequences of Petro's total peace plan. During the ceasefires with the armed groups, the narco-terrorist organizations seized the opportunity to expand their power in several ways including increasing manpower, expanding narcotics production and smuggling operations, and expanding the range of their controlled territory.

Without pressure from the Colombian government, this expansion continued nearly unabated with the only roadblocks proving to be rival criminal organizations such as Clan del Golfo, a narco-terrorist organization which was formed from the ashes of the United Self Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC).

As ceasefires are dissolved or expire, Petro's plan to bring total peace to Colombia remains on fragile footing. The success of utilizing government ceasefires to expand the power base of criminal organizations has casted doubts regarding the efficiency and practicality of the total peace plan with critics stating Petro's plan will only exacerbate the ongoing conflict.

February 28th, 2024