Battleground Breakdown: Pennsylvania

With nineteen electoral votes, Pennsylvania is the most valuable battleground state in the 2024 presidential election. As a result, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have both made campaigning in the state a priority, with the former President speaking at five rallies in the state so far this election cycle, including a July 13th rally in Butler where the former President was the target of a failed assassination attempt..Polling.National polling analysis from the Washington Post found that Trump led Biden by 1.9 points in mid-July. Since the beginning of August, national polling has consistently shown Harris with a lead. YouGov's August 4-6 poll, for example, gave Harris a 2-point lead. Substituting Harris for Biden appears to have been a successful move in general..In Pennsylvania, however, end-of-July polls show Trump with a 1.8-point lead. This still shows an improvement for the Democrats; mid-June polls showed a 3-point lead in the state for Republicans before Biden dropped out of the race..However, Pennsylvania polling has historically underestimated the former President. In 2016, August Pennsylvania polls showed Hillary Clinton with a landslide 8-point lead. When election day came, Trump won the state by 0.72%. Similarly, in 2020, state polls showed Joe Biden with a 6-point lead. He did end up winning the state, but only by 1.2%..These historic trends are extremely important when analyzing polling data from Pennsylvania. Since the same polls that have greatly underestimated Trump in the past say that he is currently winning, Democrats have a lot of work to do if they want to reverse that trend..Among Pennsylvania voters, most dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration is focused on economic concerns. The state boasts the sixth-largest GDP in the country and has been uniquely impacted by inflation. Specifically, a Consumer Affairs analysis of national grocery prices found that Pennsylvania ranked #1 in the country for inflation, largely considered to be a result of the Biden administration's handling of the economy..In response to discontent with the Biden-Harris economy, Kamala Harris's campaign has made an effort to create its own economic reputation, promising to fight inflation and inequality. For more, read my full Trump v. Harris platform comparison from last month..Representation.Pennsylvania is a state with highly divided political representation. In its state government, the offices of Governor and Attorney General and the House of Representatives are Democrat-controlled. The office of the Secretary of State and the State Senate, however, are controlled by Republicans..As for federal representation, Pennsylvania has two seats in the Senate and 17 Representatives in the House. As of 2024, the state is represented by two Democratic Senators, nine Democratic Representatives, and eight Republican Representatives..Pennsylvania has long been a politically competitive state; Gerald Gamm and Thad Kousser, professors of political science at the University of Rochester and the University of California, San Diego, conducted a meta-analysis of state-level political competition from 1880 to 2010. According to their research, Pennsylvania has remained above 80% competitiveness since 1950. In 2010, Pennsylvania boasted a 94% competitiveness score. This trend has not subsided. In 2024, Pennsylvania is one of only ten states not run by a trifecta (a state government whose Governorship, House, and Senate are all controlled by the same party)..Josh Shapiro, the Democratic Governor of Pennsylvania, was reportedly on Kamala Harris's shortlist for Vice Presidential candidates. Picking Shapiro as her running mate likely would have bolstered the Harris campaign's mission to win the state's 19 electoral votes; the Governor currently boasts a 49% approval rating and only a 31% disapproval rating in the state. Despite this, Harris decided not to run with Shapiro, likely due to his unpopular stance on Israel and his track record of political scandals..What To Expect.All of this means that Pennsylvania will be a highly important stop on Harris's campaign trail. On Tuesday, the Harris-Walz campaign held its first rally as a pair, choosing Philadelphia as the location. In fact, both presidential nominees have now held rallies in the state since former President Trump was injured in an assassination attempt at a Butler, Pennsylvania rally..Trump will surely be looking to maintain his lead in Pennsylvania, as it is the highest-weighted battleground state of this election. On July 31st, Trump brought J.D. Vance, his running mate, to Pennsylvania for a rally in Harrisburg. Here, he opened by talking about the assassination attempt and promised not to give up outdoor rallies..From now until November 5th, both candidates will continue their efforts to win the vitally important state of Pennsylvania. Trump and Vance will be looking to maintain their advantage in the polls and Trump's historic overperformance in the state. Harris will undoubtedly try to keep the state that flipped blue in 2020, likely by promising economic fixes. Whichever direction the numbers shift in the near future, neither candidate will give up on Pennsylvania until the election is called.