Battleground Breakdown: Arizona

Arizona, a long-time safe red state, first entered the battleground conversation in 2016. Although Trump won the state then, his narrow margin of victory marked the initial opening of a window that Republicans did not want to see open. Since then, the state has continued to shift left in a trend that is a textbook example of how demographic changes can rapidly disrupt political strongholds. Let's dive into what that means for this November..Polling.For nearly all of August, Arizona's polling has shown a less than one point difference between the two main candidates, with Harris currently leading Trump by 0.8 points. Harris has led Trump in Arizona since August 10th; up until that point, Trump maintained a lead that peaked at 2.3 points on August 1st. Harris's lead briefly widened to 1.3 points on August 18, which was the most significant lead for Harris in the state so far..If Harris secures Arizona in November, she will be only the second Democratic nominee to do so in the 21st century. The first was her predecessor, Joe Biden. Resultantly, a Harris win in Arizona would mark the first time Democrats have won the state twice in a row since 1948. This would be an extreme shift in American politics; Arizona was a safe red state until it became a swing state in 2016 and no Republican has ever won the Presidential election without winning Arizona. If Democrats can continue to create momentum in the state, it would be a massive advantage for the future of the party..Arizona's leftward trend can be explained by two reasons. First, Arizona's Latino population is increasing and becoming more likely to vote. From 2000 to 2020, The Latino population in Arizona increased from 25 percent to 31 percent. From 2012 to 2016, when the shift began, the percentage of eligible Latinos who voted increased from 37 percent to 42 percent. Increased Latino representation is incredibly beneficial to Democrats; in 2016, an estimated 80 percent of the Arizonan Latino vote went to Clinton..The second reason is due to shifts in education among suburban voters. Ashley Jardina, a political scientist at Duke University, explained that increases in higher education among residents of a particular area are associated with greater Democratic affiliation, as well as a greater openness to diversity, which invites new voters from groups that are already more likely to vote Democrat, like African-American voters (of which 89 percent voted for Clinton in 2016). Indeed, Maricopa County, which has recently accounted for around 60 percent of votes cast in Arizona, has seen an education shift. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Maricopa County residents with a Bachelor's degree or higher has increased from 29.5 percent to 35 percent..However, it is vital to remember that polls have historically underestimated Trump, and Arizona is no exception. In 2016, late-August polls showed Clinton with a 0.2 point lead in the state. Trump ended up winning the state by a margin of 3.5 points. Similarly in 2020, late-August polls predicted that Biden would win Arizona by 4.4 points. Even November polls gave Biden the state by about 3 points. Biden's margin of victory ended up being 0.3 points..This context is essential when considering polling data: pollsters often get it wrong, especially when Donald Trump is on the ticket. This means that no matter who seems to be leading in the polls, neither candidate can afford to take the state for granted..Representation.Arizona's state government is just as competitive as its general polling. Democrats currently control the offices of Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General. Republicans, however, control both chambers of the State Legislature and have held it since 1993..Arizona has an interesting type of competition for federal representation. The state has nine Representatives in the House: six Republicans and three Democrats. In the Senate, however, Arizona is currently represented by one Democrat, Mark Kelly, and an Independent, Kyrsten Sinema. Kelly's election in 2020 marked the first time that Arizona had no Republican Senators since 1953..This is in line with Arizona's leftward trend in Presidential elections. 2020 simultaneously marked the end of Republican domination in the state's Presidential elections and Senatorial representation. The incredibly stark shifts in Arizonan voters in the last 12 years is a testament to how quickly demographic shifts can happen and how quickly they can change politics..This opens up a new battlefield that Republicans must win: the Latino vote. While Republicans have historically won despite the Latino vote, Republicans must now focus their energy on winning with the Latino vote. This goes to show how quickly shifts in immigration and education can change how members of these groups are represented..What To Expect.As November approaches, both candidates recognize the importance of Arizona. Republicans will keep trying to maintain a state that has always been vital to their success, while Democrats will undoubtedly aim to keep the momentum of the leftward trend..But a Trump win in Arizona this year would not be the end of Republicans' woes, and a Harris win in the state would not give Democrats any real security. The fight for Arizona will be a continuous battle stretching multiple election cycles as both parties aim to turn the current swing state into a safe one for themselves.