Nine Candidates vie for Japan's Ruling Party Leadership

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has begun a race to determine the next party president, with nine candidates competing to succeed Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Set for September 27, this election is the most crowded in LDP history and comes at a time when public trust has been shaken by a months-long slush funds scandal that implicated many legacy lawmakers and threatened to oust the prime minister. Votes will be cast among party leadership but will likely involve concerns from the public. The next LDP leader will almost certainly become Japan’s prime minister, with the task of steering the country through rising domestic economic pressures and security threats from both North Korea and China.

The Candidates

All but two of the nine candidates have lived, worked, or studied in the United States. The running also includes two women seeking to become Japan’s first female prime minister. Among the leading candidates are former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, making his fifth bid for the top spot, and Shinjiro Koizumi, a young up-and-comer aiming to follow in the footsteps of his father, the former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.

The full list of candidate names includes:

• Former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi (49)

• Former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba (67)

• Digital minister Taro Kono (61)

• Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi (63), who is backed by Prime Minister Kishida

• LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi (68)

• Former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi (43)

• Economic security minister Sanae Takaichi (63)

• Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato (68)

• Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa (71)

Many analysts expect Shigeru Ishiba to take the spot due to his 38 years of experience and his popular tough-on-China strategy.

The candidates are currently on a nation-wide tour engaging in debates, speeches, and discussions with local LDP leaders in order to rally support from their party members.

Candidate Focus

The election will likely focus on public worries over rising inflation, wage stagnation, and the LDP’s goal of constitutional reform. The tension from the slush funds scandal remains as well, though it will likely not seriously hamper any candidate due to the LDP's super-majority in the Diet. Social security issues, especially in a rapidly aging society, and the question of revising Japan’s pacifist constitution are central topics in the candidates’ campaigns. Prime Minister Kishida was aggressive on rebuilding Japan's military, especially in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and North Korea's expanded missile development. Though most experts highlight the necessity of a military restructuring in Japan, the majority of people only hesitantly support the movement. Economic security is also a primary focus, with many candidates offering different approaches to balancing defense spending without raising taxes.

Party factions, generally a significant influence in such elections, have lost much of their power due to the ongoing fallout from the most recent scandal. While the slush funds mostly implicated the old Shinzo Abe faction, the effects were felt party-wide and allowed for opposition parties to chip away at the LDP's reputation and public trust. This, along with the large field of candidates, means the vote is likely to be split, and a second-round runoff is highly probable.

Whats at Stake

Campaigning will only last 15 days, with each candidate traveling the nation to distinguish themselves among party members. The first round of voting will be closely watched, with 367 votes from LDP lawmakers and 367 votes from the rank-and-file members. In the event of a runoff, the top two candidates will face a second vote.

The new LDP president will step into Kishida's shoes and face concerns both internally and externally. These will include bolstering Japan's economy amid rising global uncertainties, addressing the nation’s ongoing security concerns, and preparing for the upcoming general election. These, coupled with regular scandals among LDP leadership, leave the next Prime Minister a steep hill to climb, doubly so with the possibility of a snap election in the near future. Acknowledging that these concerns were being slowly worked at by the current leadership cabinet, the people will look for fast-acting success, causing many to view the stakes for Japan’s political landscape as having rarely been so tense.