Agreement in the Balance: Philippines and China Address South China Sea Resupply Protocols

On July 21st, the Philippines' Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) announced that the Philippines and China reached a "provisional agreement" regarding the resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal. The announcement, dated July 19th, provided scant details other than that both sides reached the agreement after discussions during the 9th Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on the South China Sea (SCS) in early July 2024..July 21st Statement.The DFA said that the Philippines and China "reached an understanding of principles and approaches that will be observed by both sides in order to avoid misunderstanding and miscalculation in the conduct of the Philippines' lawful and routine rotation and resupply missions to the BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal [Second Thomas Shoal]." The countries negotiated the pact after "a series of consultations following the frank and constructive discussions between the two sides" during the 9th Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on the SCS held in Manila. However, the announcement pointed out that the Philippines and China "continued to recognize the need to de-escalate the situation in the SCS and manage differences through peaceful means." The agreement will also be under regular review through the consultation mechanism, and "the principles and approaches will not prejudice" either country's position in the SCS. However, the Philippines will continue to "assert its rights and jurisdiction in its maritime zones under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), including in Ayungin Shoal [Second Thomas Shoal], which is within the Philippines' Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and continental shelf.".China's Statements Denying Philippines' Version of Agreement.China released two statements through its Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) on July 22nd that refuted the DFA's statement about the agreement. The MFA released a statement that rejected the Philippines' announcement and reiterated China's three points regarding the situation around the Second Thomas Shoal. China emphasized that the shoal is "a part of China's Nansha Islands [Spratly Islands], and China has sovereignty over the Nansha Islands, including Ren'ai Reef [Second Thomas Shoal], and its adjacent waters." The statement explained the three-point position regarding the current situation at Second Thomas Shoal..The first point is that the Philippines "violated China's sovereignty by sending 'warships' to sit on Ren'ai Reef [Second Thomas Shoal] for a prolonged period of time, in violation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties" in the SCS, specifically Article Five. Article Five of the Declaration said that "no habitation shall be carried out on uninhabited islands and reefs." The statement said that China "continues to demand that the Philippines tow away the vessel and restore Ren'ai Reef to its original state of being uninhabited and without facilities.".The second point outlines China's three requirements if the Philippines needs to send supplies to the Philippine Navy (PN) detachment living on the BRP Sierra Madre before the country tows away the vessel. China "is willing, on humanitarian grounds, to allow the Philippines to carry out the transportation of such supplies after prior notification to the Chinese side and on-site verification, and China will monitor the entire process.".The final point is that China will "never accept" and "resolutely block" any attempts by the Philippine side to transport large quantities of construction materials in an attempt to repair the facilities or build permanent outposts on the vessel. China said it would block the attempts "in accordance with the law and regulations, so as to safeguard China's sovereignty and the seriousness of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties" in the SCS..The statement said that it continued to hold the consultations with the Philippines "based on the above three-point principled position" regarding the Second Thomas Shoal. China "recently reached a temporary arrangement on the transportation of humanitarian supplies." Both sides agreed "to work together to control differences at sea and promote the 'cooling' of the situation" in the SCS..The MFA released its second statement during its daily press conference on July 22nd. MFA Spokesperson Mao Ning issued the statement in response to a question asked by an AFP reporter, "According to a Chinese statement early this morning, China and the Philippines have reached a tentative arrangement on controlling the situation on Renai Reef. The Chinese statement said that the Philippines would be allowed to deliver supplies to warships after prior notification to the Chinese side. The Philippine side said today that the term "prior notification" is inaccurate and that it will safeguard its rights in the South China Sea. What is the spokesperson's response to this?".Mao said that China "reached the temporary agreement with the Philippines on the transportation of humanitarian supplies" based on the three points it outlined to "deal with the current situation" at Second Thomas Shoal. The Spokesperson said that the arrangement indicates China's goodwill. She said that China hopes "that the Philippines will honor its commitments and work with China to jointly manage the situation at sea.".The Philippines' Response to China's MFA Statements.The Philippines' DFA issued a statement on its X account that acknowledged China's MFA comments about the agreement over the resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal. The department said that the "principles and approaches" in the agreement were "reached through a series of careful and meticulous consultations" between both sides. These consultations "paved the way for a convergence of ideas without compromising national positions." The statement said that Mao's comments regarding the agreement's provisions about "prior notification and on-site confirmation" are inaccurate. The agreement between the Philippines and China "was concluded with the clear understanding by both sides that it would not prejudice our respective national positions." However, the Philippines will continue to assert its rights and jurisdiction in its maritime zones as entitled under UNCLOS," including the Second Thomas Shoal, "which is within the Philippine EEZ and continental shelf." The Philippines will continue to "de-escalate the situation in the SCS and to manage differences in a peaceful manner." The Philippines emphasized "that the agreement was done in good faith," that the country remains ready to implement the pact, and that it urges China to do the same..The Agreement Shows Both Want to Decrease Tensions but China Will Use Agreement to Push Narratives.The Philippines and China reached a provincial agreement regarding resupply missions to de-escalate increased tensions in the SCS. The statements China released regarding the agreement indicate that China intended to use the pact to push its version regarding the shoal. China and the Philippines negotiated the agreement because they understood that the increased tensions around the shoal could cause the deaths of personnel from either side. Neither country wants an incident of that magnitude to occur because of the potential ramifications. The Philippines would activate its Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with the United States to receive additional assistance in resupply missions. However, the Philippines would be hesitant to activate the MDT because it would allow China to say the United States goaded the country into activating the treaty. The Philippine government understands that pro-Chinese influences and organizations would use the MDT's activation in disinformation campaigns to influence the public's opinion against the United States' presence. The campaigns would include the narrative that the United States is reimposing its control over the Philippines and that relations with China were better under former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte..If the Philippines activated the MDT, then China would face limitations regarding how it would respond to the United States' support. For example, China would be extremely hesitant to employ similar tactics against United States Coast Guard (USCG) or United States Navy (USN) personnel or vessels that would be a part of the convoy. China would also be hesitant to conduct any hostile actions against Philippine personnel because of the potential for USCG or USN vessels to intervene during a clash. These clashes could lead to the death or injury of US personnel, which will further escalate tensions between China and the United States and prompt a US response. Alternatively, the Philippines' activation of the MDT would cause other countries to increase their assistance to the country, ranging from providing additional gear to deploying personnel and vessels to assist in the resupply missions..China's response to the Philippines' announcement about the agreement, however, shows how the country will continue its efforts to distort information to fit its narrative regarding the Second Thomas Shoal. The statement said the provisional agreement included the three points that China said governed how the Philippines was supposed to conduct resupply missions to the shoal. The statement also said the agreement outlined how the Philippines will eventually remove the vessel from the shoal and restore the area to its original state. China wanted to highlight that the Philippines agreed to the points regardless of what form they took, ranging from the gentleman's agreement to the provisional agreement. The statement specifically said that the Philippines violated Article 5 of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties by beaching the BRP Sierra Madre at the shoal. China used the Sierra Madre to show how the Philippines violated the declaration because the vessel is still an active warship in the Philippine Navy (PN). The PN still maintains the Sierra Madre on the active warship rolls because it provides the Philippines with some level of protection against potential Chinese military actions. However, China uses this to highlight the Philippines' hypocrisy by showing that the country is also violating laws regarding conduct in the SCS..The MFA's actions also show the limits to how China can effectively employ its organs to push its version of the agreement. China used the Philippines' vague statement about the agreement to increase the leverage of its disinformation campaign. The ministry delayed publishing the English translation of the July 22nd press conference because it wanted to match the information presented by Mao. China wanted to make sure the information matched Mao's comments because it forms part of the wider narrative it employed surrounding the agreement.