Sabina Shoal Incident Indicates China Expanding Conflict Points in South China Sea

On August 19th, the Philippines and China released statements about an incident that occurred in the early morning hours at Sabina Shoal. The shoal is located approximately 75 nautical miles (139 kilometers) from the island of Palwan and within the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The Sabina Shoal incident occurred after the Philippine Senate approved the Archipelagic Sea Lanes Bill on August 16th..August 19th Incident.The incident occurred when two Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) vessels, the BRP Bagacay and BRP Cape Engano, encountered "unlawful and aggressive maneuvers" from China Coast Guard boasts while sailing to the Flat and Nanshan (Patag and Lawak) Islands in the South China Sea (SCS)..The PCG boats were sailing approximately 23 nautical miles (46 kilometers) southeast of Sabina Shoal when a Jiangdao class patrol cutter conducted aggressive maneuvers against the Cape Engano at 3:24 am local time..The maneuvers resulted in "a collision with the starboard beam of the vessel" that created "a hole on the deck with an approximate diameter of five inches (13 centimeters)." The collision tore a hole in the starboard quarter of the vessel with a diameter of 3.61 feet (1.10 meters) and caused damage to its starboard engine exhaust that measured approximately 16 inches (40 centimeters)..At approximately 3:40 am local time, the BRP Bagacay was rammed twice on both the port and starboard sides by another CCG vessel, a JL5500 high speed patrol boat, when it was about 21 nautical miles (39 kilometers) southeast of Sabina Shoal. The collision caused a hole that measured 2.5 feet (76 centimeters) in length and 3 feet (91 centimeters) in width on the port auxiliary engine..The vessel's starboard side received damage to thirteen stanchion posts and a 1-foot (30 centimeter) dent. The vessels, however, continued their mission of resupplying Philippine personnel stationed on the Flat and Nanshan Islands despite the incident. The National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea (NTFWPS) "urges restraint and adherence to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and other relevant international laws to prevent further escalations" and "ensure the safety of all vessels operating in the region.".China's Statements .China's coast guard, Foreign Affairs Ministry (FAM), and Embassy in Manila issued statements regarding the incident at Sabina Shoal. The CCG's initial statement said that the CCG vessels "carried out control measures" against two PCG vessels after they illegally intruded near Xianbin Reef [Sabina Shoal]. The CCG Spokesperson, Gan Yu, released three additional statements that expanded on the first statement..Gan said that PCG ignored CCG's "repeated solemn warnings and intentionally bumped into the" vessel while it was "engaged in the normal enforcement of Chinese law and regulations, in an unprofessional and dangerous manner." The Spokesperson said that the "collision" is the "responsibility for which lies entirely with the Philippine side." Gan urged the Philippine side "to immediately cease its infringement and provocation, or else the Philippine side will bear all the consequences.".In the second statement, Gan said that a PCG vessel "illegally intruded into the waters adjacent to Ren'ai Reef [Second Thomas Shoal] of China's Nansha Islands [Spratly Islands]" after the CCG vessels prevented it from "illegally intruding into the waters adjacent to Xianbin Reef [Sabina Shoal]. The CCG took control measures against the PCG boat in accordance with the law." Gan said that the Philippines repeatedly caused trouble and "violated the temporary arrangement between the Chinese and Philippine sides" on the resupply missions to Second Thomas Shoal. The violations infringed on China's sovereignty and undermined regional peace and stability. Gan urges the Philippines to "immediately cease its violations and provocations, or else the Philippine side will bear all the consequences arising therefrom.".Gan's final statement discussed the second collision between CCG and PCG boats. The Spokesperson said that the Philippines insisted on sending the PCG vessels to illegally intrude into the waters adjacent to Xianbin Reef [Sabina Shoal], despite China repeatedly warning the country. Gan said one of the PCG vessels "intentionally rammed into the" CCG vessel engaged in normal enforcement and "illegally intruded into the waters adjacent to Ren'ai Reef [Second Thomas Shoal]." He also said that the CCG's operation "was professional, standardized, reasonable, and lawful.".The actions of the Philippines "are a serious infringement of China's territorial sovereignty, a grave violation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the SCS, and a serious disruption of regional peace and stability." Gan stated that China has "indisputable sovereignty" over the Spratly Islands and their waters, including Sabina Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal. The Spokesperson completed the statement by saying that the CCG would continue to carry out sovereignty patrols and law enforcement activities in water under China's jurisdiction..On August 19th, China's FAM Spokesperson Mao Ning released two statements in response to the incident at Sabina Shoal. Mao answered the question asked by the Reuters reporter about "what measures the FAM will take in response to the incident?" and "How will the incident affect the stability of the situation in the South China Sea?" Mao gave a short summary of the incident and emphasized that "Xianbin Reef [Sabina Shoal] is part of China's Nansha Islands [Spratly Islands], China's inherent territory, and an uninhabited reef.".However, Mao said that the PCG vessels entered the waters of Sabina Shoal to replenish the PCG ship stranded in the shoal's lagoon for long-term presence. The Philippines "violated China's sovereignty, seriously violated the provisions of the Declaration of Conduct for All Parties in the SCS," and endangered "the peace and stability of the SCS." Mao said that China opposes all Philippine actions and will "take firm and powerful measures in accordance with the law to safeguard its territorial sovereignty, maritime rights, and interests and maintain the sanctity of the Declaration of Conduct for All Parties in the SCS.".The second statement was in response to the question asked by a Bloomberg reporter, "Does the incident show that despite the temporary arrangement reached between China and the Philippines last month, the situation between China and the Philippines remains tense?" Mao responded by pointing out that "China has always been committed to properly handling maritime disputes with the Philippines through dialogue and consultation." The Spokesperson said China hopes that the Philippines "will honor its commitment, earnestly observe the understandings and arrangements reached with China, refrain from taking actions that complicate the situation, and work with China to jointly control the situation.".On August 20th, the Chinese Embassy in Manila issued a statement in response to a question about its response to the United States' statement regarding the Sabina Shoal incident. The press release summarized the incident and mentioned that the CCG and FAM released statements and video of the alleged incident, so "the facts are clear, and the truth is evident." China is "committed to handling maritime disputes with the Philippines properly through dialogue and consultation." They hoped the Philippines would "honor its commitment, earnestly observe the understandings and arrangements reached with China, refrain from taking actions that may complicate the situation, and work with China to get the situation at sea under control.".The U.S. State Department, the U.S. Embassy in Manila, and allies of the Philippines "wasted no time in taking sides and made inflammatory statements, which raised questions about their underlying motives." The Spokesperson said that the United States and countries are "not parties to the South China Sea issue and have no right to interfere in maritime matters between China and the Philippines." The statement ends with China saying the countries "should stop provoking confrontation in the SCS and cease actions that undermine regional stability and exacerbate tensions.".Philippines' Archipelagic Sea Lanes Bill.On August 16th, the Philippines' National Security Council (NSC) announced that the Philippine Senate approved the ASL bill after its third reading. The legislation is crucial in enhancing the Philippines' national security, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. The Senate's actions are "lockstep with the efforts of the House of Representatives, which likewise passed on the third reading of its version of the ASL Bill" in December 2023. The NSC said it looks "forward to the positive and prompt consideration by the Bicameral Conference Committee of this important piece of legislation." The statement pointed out that the bill came after the Philippine Congress approved the updated, harmonized version of the Philippine Maritime Zones (MZ) Bill in July 2024. The ASL and MZ bills will work with the Baseline Law to set the Philippines' archipelagic house in order by "aligning domestic legislation with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNLOS).".The NTFWPS "recognizes the strategic importance of maritime legislation, which will bring attention to the proper scope of the Philippine maritime domain and the need for strategic investments in maritime security, maritime domain awareness, and maritime law enforcement." The task force recognizes the legislation's importance in the "sustainability of marine resources and protection of the marine environment, thereby reinforcing the Philippines' ability to govern the waters" within its sovereignty and jurisdiction. The NSC commended the legislators "for their steadfast commitment to safeguard the interests of the Filipino people, particularly their legacy as a maritime and archipelagic people and nation" and promote the Philippines' advocacy for a rules-based international order. The NTFWPS remains dedicated to its mission of protecting the Philippines' national interest, especially in the maritime domain, and will continue to support all initiatives that contribute to the security and prosperity of the Philippines.".August 19th Incident Shows China Willingness to Contest the Philippines' Attempts at Expanding Presence in the SCS.China rammed the PCG vessels likely because they believed the ships were sailing to Sabina Shoal to increase the Philippines' semi-permanent presence at the shoal. However, China planned the incident after the Philippine Senate approved the ASL Bill because it viewed the Philippines as preparing to reinforce its presence at SCS features it occupies, such as Sabina Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal. China believed the Philippines sent the vessels to Sabina Shoal as part of the Philippines' efforts to increase its presence at the feature. The country's belief was based on the Philippines deploying a PCG vessel to shoal around the same time as the PCG ships conducted the resupply mission..The Philippines, however, said that the two vessels were sailing to the Flat and Nanshan Islands to resupply the Philippine outposts located on the features. The statements the CCG released after the incident said that the PCG vessels were in the waters near Second Thomas Shoal when the incident occurred. China framed the vessels as sailing near the Second Thomas Shoal to justify its aggressive actions after the Philippines pointed out that the ships were conducting a resupply mission to Flat and Nanshan Islands..China's aggressive actions against the Philippine vessels operating in the shoal's vicinity are because it plans to establish a permanent presence at the feature. Sabina Shoal is located approximately 42 miles (68 kilometers) east of Second Thomas Shoal, which would give China options if it successfully occupied the shoal. For example, China would have a presence at a feature that is relatively close to Second Thomas Shoal, which allows the country to stage CCG or China Maritime Militia ships to intercept the PCG resupply missions to the shoal. China could use the island as an alternative location to build an artificial island and military base similar to ones established on Firey Cross, Mischief, and Subi Reefs..The country could use its presence at the shoal as a bargaining chip in negotiations with future Philippine governments more amiable to agreements about the features. Another reason that China wants to occupy the feature is to increase pressure against the Philippines for its continued efforts to occupy Second Thomas Shoal. China previously stated that the Philippines violated the gentleman's agreement regarding Second Thomas Shoal resupply missions, which it viewed as a binding agreement. Furthermore, China views the Philippine presence at Sabina Shoal as violating the agreement and Declaration of Conduct for All Parties in the SCS, which warranted an aggressive response from the country..China's concern increased after the Philippines approved the ASL Bill because the country would use it as a basis to continue to fight against China's actions in the SCS. The bill would complement the MZ and other bills that the Philippine Congress passed to legalize the Philippines SCS claims. This would bolster the Philippines' willingness to expand its presence at SCS features and build more permanent structures. China, however, would view any expansion of the Philippines' presence at any feature as crossing a red line regarding territorial integrity..The new laws would allow the Philippines to increase the number of PCG vessels and the number of personnel stationed at Philippine features. China would view the actions as a violation of not only its laws but one of the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) arguments for continuing to be in power, which is to regain the territories China lost during the Hundred Years of Humiliation. For example, China would aggressively respond to the Philippine incursions so the CCP can continue to receive support from the Chinese population and maintain societal stability. The population's nationalistic segments would respond to China's actions they deem inadequate by directing their discontent toward the CCP. Their discontent would only add to the dissatisfaction that exists within Chinese society because of the lagging economy, lack of jobs, and the ongoing real estate crisis.