Vietnam Communist Party Leader’s Death Will Not Lead to Succession Issues, Policy Changes

On July 19th, Vietnamese state media announced the death of Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP) General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong. The Expert Council for the Health Protection of Central-Level Officials issued an announcement that said Trong was under the intensive care of "leading medical experts and doctors, and was with his family." News media outlets said that the Party Chief passed away "due to age-related illness at the Central Military Hospital 108 in Hanoi." On July 20th, the VCP's Central Committee, the National Assembly, the Government, and the Vietnam Fatherland Front's Central Committee issued a joint communiqué that Trong will lay in state at the National Funeral Hall, where a "respect-paying ceremony" will be held on July 25th at 7 a.m. local time. Trong's memorial service will be held at 1 p.m. local time, with the burial ceremony taking place at 3 p.m. local time at the Mai Dich Ceremony located in Hanoi on July 26th..Transfer of VCP Leadership Positions.Before Trong died, the VCP announced on July 18th that he would stop working to focus on receiving treatment and healthcare. The announcement said that the VCP's Politburo, Secretariat, and key Party officials directed agencies to mobilize a team of doctors, medical professors, and medical staff to treat and provide care for Trong. However, the statement said that current Vietnamese President To Lam will "preside over the work of the Party Central Committee, the Politburo, and the Secretariat according to the responsibilities and powers prescribed by the Politburo" to ensure the "general management of the VCP's Central Committee, the Politburo, and the Secretariat.".Nguyen Phu Trong Biography.Trong was born on April 14, 1944, in Dong Hoi Commune, Dong Anh Ward, located in Hanoi, during the Japanese occupation of French Indochina. Trong's family background was described as "poor peasant" in official biographies published before his death. He received his degree in philosophy from the Vietnam National University in 1967 and joined the VCP in December of the same year. His first job was as a staff member of the Party's theoretical and political review bureau, the Communist Review, then called the Study Review. Trong worked at the bureau from 1967 to 1973, where he became part of the review's editorial staff. From 1973 to 1980, he was a research student in the Political Economy Department at the Nguyen Ai Quoc High-Level Party Academy (now called the Ho Chi Minh National Political Academy), studied Russian at the Party Academy, and was the Deputy Party Secretary and editorial staff member of the Review's Party-Building Committee..He then traveled to the Soviet Union, where he was a research fellow and PhD student at the Soviet Academy of Sciences. He presented his doctoral thesis in historical science, Party Building major at the Academy. From 1983 to 1989, he was the Communist Review's Deputy Chairman for its Party-Building Committee, then its Chairman and Deputy Party Secretary, as well as a member of its editorial board. Trong then became the Review's Deputy Editor-in-Chief from 1990 to 1991 and was promoted to Editor-in-Chief from 1991 to 1996. He was also elected to the VCP's Central Committee at the 7th National Party Congress in 1994 during this time. The future Secretary General was chosen to become Hanoi's Deputy Municipal Party Secretary, Chairman of the Party University Affairs Board, and in charge of Hanoi's Municipal Information and Education Board from 1996 to 1998..During this time, Trong was also elected to the Politburo at the 8th Party Central Committee's 4th meeting. From 1998 to 2001, he was selected as the VCP Central Theoretical Council's Vice Chairman, where he was charged with the Party's cultural, educational, and ideological works. Trong was then promoted to be the Theoretical Council's Chairman until 2006. Beginning in 1999 until 2001, Trong was selected as VCP Central Committee Politburo's Standing Committee member. He was also Hanoi's Municipal Party Secretary from 2000 to 2006 for the 13th, 14th, and 15th Party Committees. Trong also was a legislator for the National Assembly from 2002 until his death..Trong was the Chairman for the 11th and 12th National Assembly Legislatures, the National Assembly's Secretary for the Party Caucus, and a member of the National Security and Defence Council from 2006 to 2011. Trong was the VCP Central Committee's General Secretary, the Central Military Commission's (CMC) Secretary, a member of the Central Public Security Standing Party Committee, and Chairman of the Central Steering Committee on Preventing and Combating Corruption and Wrongdoing until his death. He was the VCP's General Secretary, Vietnamese President for the 2016–2021 term, and National Security and Defence Council Chairman from 2018 to 2021..Trong's Death Will Not Lead to Succession Issues or Wavering from Anti-Corruption Campaign or Bamboo Diplomacy.Trong's death would not cause any succession issues because To Lam likely has enough political capital to secure his position. His death, however, will likely not lead to any new domestic or foreign policies, such as doing away with the anti-corruption campaign and bamboo diplomacy. His temporary appointment to the VCP positions indicates that he received Trong's support to eventually become the VCP General Secretary, the VCP Central Committee Secretariat, and the CMC Secretary. This was especially apparent in May 2024, when To succeeded Trong as President of Vietnam. Trong approved of To's implementation of the anti-corruption campaign to eliminate corruption in Vietnam since 2016 as Minister of Public Security. The ministerial position allowed To to not only gain favor with Trong but also purge potential rivals that would obstruct his advancement. The campaign reshaped politics throughout Vietnam, from the District/Municipal level to the Politburo, with seven of the 18 members coming from the Ministry of Public Security. The Politburo's new composition will likely enable To to be confirmed to officially take over the three Party positions when they meet to make the determination. The confirmation would allow To to fortify his position in the Party before the VCP holds the 14th National Congress in 2026..There are indications that the VCP is using Vietnamese media to show that Vietnam and the Party are stable and for people to provide it with support after Trong's death. On July 19th, Vietnamese media outlets published variations of two articles that urged the Vietnamese population to show solidarity with the Party and To Lam. These articles pointed out that To's appointment was the "proper decision that is suitable to the objective reality and in line with the Party's regulations." They contained language that called for the "entire Party, people, and army's absolute trust in the Party's leadership, which is truly necessary to continue exciting and promoting the great national solidarity tradition." The VCP requested that the outlets publish the two stories to show the Vietnamese people that To's appointment is necessary for the country's advancement. The stories also reassured people that the VCP is stable and is not in danger of collapse..Trong's death would not cause the government to overhaul various policies, especially the country's anti-corruption campaign and bamboo diplomacy. He understood that Vietnam needed the anti-corruption campaign because corruption is one of the few legitimate, serious threats that the Party faces. Furthermore, Trong understood that Vietnam would not attract the necessary Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for the country's economy to advance. Vietnam is extremely corrupt, but the VCP was extremely hesitant to prosecute corruption because of the potential for it to adversely affect its legitimacy and rule. However, this rationale began to change in 2011 when Troung Tan Sang became Vietnam's President, despite receiving a reprimand for his involvement in an organized crime case. Trong realized that corruption had reached a point where it posed a significant threat to the VCP's continued rule. In reaction, he enacted three measures that would effectively combat corruption. The creation of the Central Steering Committee on Anti-Corruption, led by the VCP, is the most significant measure taken. Trong also institutionalized a variety of regulations and rules that increased the intensity of the fight against corruption. The final measure was the VCP launching a public awareness campaign against corruption to act as a preventive measure against public officials conducting corrupt activities..To would not move away from Vietnam's current bamboo diplomacy because he understands it allows the country to balance between major countries. This strategy is especially needed because of growing tensions between China, Russia, and the United States that could adversely affect Vietnam. Vietnam's flexible diplomatic approach was illustrated when it increased its ties with the United States to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in September 2023. The country then expanded its ties with China when Chinese leader Xi Jinping visited three months later. Vietnam chose to increase ties with China and the United States because doing so allows the country to react effectively to global and regional tensions. For example, Vietnam chose to expand its ties with China despite the ongoing South China Sea (SCS) dispute it has with the country..Regarding the United States, Vietnam increased its relationship with the country to gain access to a friend who would be willing to assist it in the SCS dispute and to attract U.S. businesses that are moving their operations from China. Vietnam's continued interactions with Russian officials show how it effectively uses bamboo diplomacy. These interactions occur against the backdrop of the United States and other countries reducing their relations with Russia over the Ukrainian conflict. Bamboo diplomacy allows Vietnam significant leeway to simultaneously interact with several countries while not fully placing itself under the influence of one country.