Recent Three Brotherhood Alliance Operation Reveals Myanmar Junta’s Diminished Combat Effectiveness

On July 25th, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) announced the capture of the city of Lashio, located in Shan State. The MNDAA, the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and allied People's Defense Forces (PDFs) also captured the Northeastern Regional Command located in the city. The capture of Lashio and the regional command is the first time that resistance groups captured either a major city or regional command and comes as the MNDAA and TNLA resumed fighting the Junta under Operation 1027 Part II..Operation 1027 Part I and Ceasefire Agreement .The Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA) consists of the Arakan Army (AA), the MNDAA, and the TNLA that initially launched Operation 1027 Part I in October 2023. The operation resulted in the capture of half of Shan State and a number of military bases in Northern Shan State. Crucially, the alliance captured several border towns and crossings along the Myanmar-China border. The fighting in the border region caused China to mediate several negotiations between the 3BHA and the Junta in Kunming, Yunan Province. The negotiations led to several ceasefires that the Junta subsequently violated by launching air and artillery strikes against territory under the 3BHA's control. However, both sides maintained the Haigeng ceasefire agreement they agreed to on January 10th, despite the Junta violating it several times by launching strikes against various cities and territories. However, the Junta increased the frequency and number of strikes against territory controlled by the 3BHA. The violations led the MNDAA and the TNLA to resume fighting in the area under the name Operation 1027 Part II..Three Brotherhood Alliance Launch Operation 1027 Part II.The MNDAA and TNLA captured several Junta military bases and cities in the days after they relaunched the operation. The TNLA, Mandalay PDF, and other groups launched attacks that captured five towns in Shan State and Mandalay Region. The most significant of the towns that fell to the TNLA and its allies, however, was Nawnghkio (Naungcho), located approximately 28 miles (46 kilometers) northeast of the city of Pyin Oo Lwin. During the operations, TNLA forces and allied groups captured 20 Junta bases and several dozen Junta military personnel..On June 29th, the MNDAA attacked Junta units in the town of Hsenwi, which is approximately 28 miles southwest of the city of Lashio. MNDAA and its allies also clashed with Junta units near the city on the same day. The rapid advance by the MNDAA, the TNLA, and its allies, along with heavy fighting, caused several hundred civilians to flee Lashio and head to the cities of Mandalay and Pyin Oo Lwin. The Junta destroyed several bridges near Lashio to prevent the resistance groups from nearing the city..On July 2nd, Mandalay PDF units captured the Ingin Myain Air Defense Base, located in Madaya township, near the outskirts of the city of Mandalay. The MNDAA also began its offensive to capture the city of Lashio and the Northeastern Command, which resulted in the capture of five bases located around the city. Several area residents and the TNLA said that at least seven civilians were killed when the Junta fired on several villages located near Lashio. On July 3rd, the MNDAA and other groups began to target positions around the Junta's Northeastern Command. The Junta responded to the attacks by conducting air and artillery strikes against the resistance groups and civilians in the area..Local authorities also closed Lashio Airport due to the fighting, prohibited people from leaving the city, and closed shops throughout Lashio. The Junta also sent military forces and equipment to the cities of Mandalay Pyin Oo Lwin to reinforce the city and establish roadblocks to prevent the TNLA and Mandalay PDF from attacking the areas. Fighting surrounding the city also intensified around the same time as the offensive to capture the regional command started. The fighting caused civilians remaining in the city to shelter under bridges for protection from Junta airstrikes..On July 5th, reports state that a "brief shootout" between the TNLA and the Shan State Army-North (SSA-North) in the town of Hsipaw resulted in the death of a TNLA officer and one injured soldier. A second attack occurred in the town of Kyaukme that resulted in the deaths of six TNLA officers and soldiers. Senior leadership from both groups met and reportedly resolved the issue. Other TNLA units captured the Gok Hteik viewpoint and the nearby railway located east of the town of Nawnghkio. The TNLA said that Junta air and artillery strikes resulted in the deaths of 49 civilians and 67 injured in the Mogoke, Kyaukme, and Lashio regions since Operation 1027 Part II began. Reports say that the TNLA conducted an attack on the Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA) camp in the village of Nawngping on July 8th but did not say if it resulted in casualties..Fighting intensified between the TNLA, the Mandalay PDF, and the Junta forces surrounding Madaya township as the resistance groups pushed towards the city of Mandalay. The TNLA's political wing, the Palaung State Liberation Front (PSLF), accused the SSPP of intentionally interfering with its operations by ambushing or detaining its soldiers, evacuating Junta soldiers in retreating from the towns of Hsipaw and Kyaukme, and taking over Junta bases before the TNLA and other resistance groups captured them. The TNLA asked the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC) to mediate between it and the SSPP/SSA. On July 9th, the Mandalay PDF said it seized around 11 bases from the Junta around Singu Township, located in the Mandalay region, in an operation to control the Mandalay-Mogoke Road..On July 10th, the TNLA said they captured the remaining Junta base located near the city of Nawnghkio. The 3BHA said that they captured 80 Junta bases and about 80 Junta personnel after resuming operations against the Junta in Shan State and the Mandalay Region. On July 12th, the United Wa State Army (UWSA) deployed 2,000 soldiers to the town of Tangyan, Shan State, to take control from Junta forces after residents called for protection from fighting between the Junta and 3BHA. The UWSA deployment occurred one day after the SSPP/SSA sent a letter to the PSLF asking the 3BHA to control TNLA soldiers in Shan State. However, the SSPP/SSA also sent soldiers to the town of Mangyai, Shan State, to protect it from fighting between the 3BHA and the Junta. TNLA and Mandalay PDF began operations to capture the town of Mogoke on July 13th, which resulted in heavy fighting between both sides. The Junta increased the number of airstrikes against civilians in the Mandalay Region because of the 3BHA's successes..The MNDAA said the Junta conducted an airstrike and strafed the downtown area of the town of Laukkai, Northern Shan State. The July 14th attack resulted in several buildings being damaged, but the MNDAA did not say if the attack caused any casualties. However, Junta news outlets said that the attack targeted MNDAA leaders in the area. On July 15th, the TNLA said that Junta soldiers who fled surrounded Junta bases in the towns of Mogoke in Mandalay Region and Mongmit in northern Shan State were wearing civilian clothing and hiding among civilians. The MNDAA and the TNLA announced they would begin a four-day ceasefire for operations while the China Communist Party (CCP) held its Third Plenary Session. The Junta continued to conduct air and artillery strikes against TLNA and MNDAA positions in Nawnghkio and Kyaukme Townships, as well as the city of Lashio. On July 17th, TNLA and other groups entered the town of Mongmit to capture it from the Junta units defending the area. The MNDAA announced they entered the city of Lashio as several Junta conscripts surrendered to the alliance the day before..The Junta deployed naval vessels and speedboats to patrol the Irrawaddy River around the city of Mandalay as the TNLA and its allies continued its advance on July 19th. The TNLA captured five positions around the city of Mogoke as the Junta continued to conduct strikes against rebels and civilians in the area. On July 20th, the MNDAA reportedly announced they would stop their military operations from July 19th to 31st because of pressure from China. The MNDAA announced a Junta airstrike against the city of Laukkai resulted in two civilian deaths on July 22nd. The AA surrounded the naval station near the town of Kyaukpyu located in Rakhine State. The junta also announced they replaced the commander of the Northeastern Command on July 24th because of the 3BHA's successful operations. The National Democratic Alliance Army deployed forces to the town of Mongyawng to protect the residents on July 24th..On July 25th, the TNLA, Mandalay PDF, and other groups announced they captured the town of Mogoke after capturing the last Junta bases in the area. The operation to capture the town lasted between 11 and 12 days. Several videos show local residents celebrating and greeting the resistance forces as they entered the town. In reaction to the videos, pro-government news outlets called for Junta leaders to launch missions to destroy Mogoke using aerial bombardment. The MNDAA also announced that they and other groups captured the city of Lashio and the Northeastern Command after 23 days of fighting. The MNDAA also announced they have control over Lashio Airport and have begun to reestablish local administration in the city..China's Influence Over the Operation 1027 Part II.The Junta began to increase interactions with China after the 3BHA resumed military offensives as a part of Operation 1027, starting in early July. On July 8th, the Junta announced that Chinese New Year will become a national holiday alongside Christmas, New Year's Day, and Karen New Year's Day. The Junta said they decided to make the Chinese New Year a public holiday because the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members, as well as other countries, consider it a public holiday. Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing announced the decision during Chinese Ambassador Chen Hai's departure ceremony. Hliang chose to make the announcement because Hai initially proposed the Junta officially recognize the holiday in February 2024. On July 12th, delegates from the Junta's political party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), the Arakan Front Party (AFP), the People's Party (PP), and the Shan and Ethnic Democratic Party (SEDP) visited China for seven days at the request of the CCP. The four parties are members of a working group of political parties registered under the government's election commission..Hliang also reportedly sent former president Thein Sein and Vice-Senior General Soe Win on back-to-back visits to China, where they met with government officials for discussions about the country's urgent issues. However, "unconfirmed sources" said that China wants a new individual to replace Hliang and other senior officials with more effective leaders to stabilize the border area. China forced the MNDAA and the TNLA to announce ceasefires during the CCP's 3rd Plenary Session and extended it until the end of July. On July 22nd, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister Than Swe met with the CCP's International Liaison Department Deputy Minister Sun Haiyan in Kunming, Yunnan Province. Swe was in Kunming to attend the 8th China-South Asia Expo. Sun and Swe discussed increasing efforts to "combat cross-border criminal and illegal acts such as telecommunications fraud," the illegal arms, and drug trades. Sun said that China supports Myanmar to "achieve domestic reconciliation as soon as possible within the framework of the Constitution and continue the process of political transformation.".Sun met with several delegates from the USDP, the AFP, the PP, and the SEDP in the capital city of Beijing on July 25th. The deputy minister said that China "is willing to further deepen the traditional friendship and mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries, jointly maintain peace and tranquility in the border areas, and work together for development." Sun said the CCP will deepen exchanges with all political parties in Myanmar and make "greater contributions to promoting the construction of a Community of Destiny between China and Myanmar." The delegate said Myanmar "attaches importance to the development and deepening of friendship and cooperation with China" and "supports the strengthening of cooperation between the two sides under the Belt and Road Initiative and the building of a Community of Destiny." They said the country is "grateful to China for playing an active role in Myanmar's domestic peace process.".Operation 1027 Part II Shows Junta's Diminished Combat Effectiveness and China's Increasing Influence.The 3BHA's battlefield successes during Operation 1027 Part II illustrate how the Junta's combat effectiveness has significantly declined since the outbreak of the civil war. The operation, however, also shows how China will use various means to influence both sides of the conflict to meet its strategic needs. The MNDAA, the TNLA, and its allies saw enormous successes in the initial days of the campaign, with the capture of several towns and territory in northern Shan State and Upper Mandalay Region. These successes occurred despite the Haigeng ceasefire agreement between the MNDAA, the TNLA, and the Junta. The Junta, however, had to defend against operations conducted by other ethnic armies in other regions, such as in Chin, Kayah, and Rakhine States..These combat operations prevented the Junta from reinforcing or strengthening its positions in Shan State and Mandalay Region, which then allowed the rebels their initial successes. These successes enabled the groups to gain the initiative that the Junta was not able to effectively overcome, despite the increased use of air and artillery strikes against the groups and civilians. The successes and the initiative prevented the Junta from launching successful counteroffensives to retake territory lost during the operation..The alliance's successes provided additional proof that the Junta's ability to successfully sustain operations against the rebel groups significantly diminished. The Junta sent units to reinforce bases and cities, such as Lashio and Mandalay, that were contested by the MNDAA, TNLA, and allied groups. The Junta did not want to lose the two cities because the military's regional commands were located in the cities, which would represent a significant loss to the Junta. The new units sent to the cities consisted of conscripts that did not have an incentive to fight for the Junta. The groups of conscripts that defected or surrendered to 3BHA-allied groups during the offensive decreased the number of soldiers defending the areas or cities..These defections or surrenders significantly decreased the unit's ability to conduct operations to combat advances by the MNDAA and the TLNA. The Junta also did not have the necessary capabilities to logistically sustain the units defending the areas. The diminished capabilities caused the Junta to send an inadequate number of reinforcements on roadways or helicopters. The MNDAA and TNLA would routinely ambush or block Junta convoys that used roadways to move conscripts and supplies. The groups would also fire at and destroy helicopters, preventing some reinforcements and supplies from arriving in Lashio or other areas threatened by the operations..Operation 1027 Part II illustrated China's ability to use various ways to influence the actions of the Junta and 3BHA to achieve its objectives. The various meetings throughout July show how emboldened and dependent the Junta became in the years after the February 2021 coup. The meetings with CCP officials allowed the Junta to request China's assistance in fighting against the 3BHA, ranging from forcing the groups to enter temporary ceasefires to providing material aid. Chinese officials, however, were hesitant to do so without concrete concessions from the Junta, with Hliang being replaced as the most pressing demand. Another significant demand that China would want to see the Junta implement is to increase operations against online scam centers and other cross-border crime that exists along the border..Myanmar's recognition of the Chinese New Year as a public holiday allowed the Junta to show that it accepted China's demands and aligned more closely with China. The recognition of Chinese New Year and similar actions would go against the Junta's notion that it protects Myanmar from foreign interference. China used its influence with the MNDAA and TNLA to force them into ceasefires. These ceasefires would have allowed the Junta to regroup in the contested areas. However, the MNDAA and TNLA did not abide by the ceasefires because of the Junta's history of violating the agreements and their battlefield successes..China's influence expanded to the other rebel groups that also operated in Northern Shan State. This influence is most evident in the SSA/SSPP and USWA's actions during Operation 1027 Part II. The SSA/SSPP and the TNLA clashed in two towns, resulting in the deaths of eight TNLA personnel in early July. While the circumstances regarding why the SSA/SSPP targeted the TNLA in the attacks are unclear, the SSA/SSPP views the TNLA as its opposition in the region. However, China used the SSA/SSPP's opposition to the TNLA to ask the group to aid the Junta to prevent the TNLA from controlling more territory. The USWA's actions provide better insight into this view because the USWA receives significant political and military support from China. China asked the USWA to accept transfers of towns from the Junta to limit the amount of territory the 3BHA controls. The USWA's takeover of the towns allows the Junta to save its personnel and equipment from being captured by the 3BHA.