1st Resupply Mission Since July 17th Agreement Shows China’s Limitations at Controlling Narrative

On July 27th, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) conducted a resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal. The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) vessel, BRP Cape Engano, escorted the civilian resupply ship, the MV Lapu-Lapu, during the mission. The resupply mission was the first to occur after the Philippines and China reached an agreement about the Second Thomas Shoal missions on July 21st..July 27th Resupply Mission.The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) and the National Security Council (NSC) released statements about the resupply mission. The DFA's statement said that the Philippines conducted the mission to the BRP Sierra Madre stationed at the Second Thomas Shoal. The mission consisted of the "vessel MV Lapu-Lapu, escorted by the PCG vessel BRP Cape Engano." The DFA said that the AFP or the PCG reported "no untoward incidents." The statement highlighted that the mission is the first the Philippines completed "under the ambit of the understanding" reached between the country and China on principles for the conduct of resupply missions to Second Thomas Shoal to "avoid misunderstandings and miscalculations, without prejudice to national positions.".The NSC released a statement on July 28th about the resupply mission. The statement said the AFP, with PCG support, "successfully carried out" the resupply mission to the BRP Sierra Madre at Second Thomas Shoal inside the Philippines' Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The PCG and resupply vessels observed four China Coast Guard (CCG), three People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), and two China Maritime Militia (CMM) ships in the shoal's vicinity. The Chinese vessels "maintained their distance and did not undertake any action to disrupt" the resupply mission..The statement said the successful mission allowed the AFP to resupply the detachment stationed at the BRP Sierra Madre and rotate troops. The Philippines agreed to the 'provisional understanding' with China regarding the resupply missions to Second Thomas Shoal for "the simple reason of deescalating tensions and preventing misunderstandings and miscalculations at sea." The statement pointed out that the understanding "explicitly does not prejudice the national position of the Philippines." The Philippines also expects that China will fully adhere to the outline of the "provisional understanding" and urged both countries to deal with issues in a "constructive manner and never through coercion and intimidation." The statement said that the Philippines "did not and will never seek permission" from China to conduct missions to the shoal. The NSC said that the CCG did not board or inspect the resupply vessel as stated by China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA)..The DFA also issued a response on July 28th that disputed China's MFA statement. The statement said that "it is unfortunate that the MFA Spokesperson has mischaracterized" the Philippines' July 27th resupply mission. The Philippines pointed out that China's statement chose to misrepresent the agreement between the two countries instead of acknowledging how the two countries were able to manage differences to avoid miscalculations and misunderstandings. The statement said the "understanding between the Philippines and China was concluded in good faith, with the explicit agreement that it will not prejudice national positions." The Philippines said the MFA's statement was not helpful "to keep giving false notions about what has been agreed on and how they were implemented.".China's Response .China's MFA issued a statement on July 27th disputing the Philippines' statement regarding the resupply mission. The Spokesperson issued the statement in response to the question about the Philippines' DFA announcement about the resupply mission to Ren'ai Reef [Second Thomas Shoal] and what China's position is on it. The statement said that the resupply was conducted "under the full supervision" of the CCG according to the 'provisional agreement' reached between the two countries. The MFA said that the Philippines informed China about the mission before carrying it out. CCG personnel completed "on-site confirmation" that the vessel carried only food and not construction materials before allowing the Lapu-Lapu to deliver the supplies..The Spokesperson emphasized that the "relevant arrangements were reached between China and the Philippines based on the three-point principled positions." The statement said that China's position on the Ren'ai Reef [Second Thomas Shoal] issue has not changed. The Spokesperson emphasized that China has sovereignty over the Nansha Islands [Spratly Islands], including the Second Thomas Shoal, and surrounding waters. The statement said that China "will continue to properly deal with relevant territorial issues and disputes over maritime rights with the Philippines through dialogue and consultation.".Statement Shows China's Limited Efforts to Maintain Narrative Surrounding Second Thomas Shoal.China's statement about the July 27th resupply mission is its effort to maintain the narrative that the agreement was based on its three-point position. The statement almost certainly was China's attempt to save face while maintaining its narrative that the Philippines agreed to its demands for resupply missions. China designed the statement to negate the perception that the country agreed to the pact to prevent the United States from intervening in the South China Sea (SCS). The Philippines likely expressed its willingness to ask the United States for assistance to China during the 9th Bilateral Consultation Mechanism held in early July. The Philippines made these comments to illustrate that the June 17th incident is a significant escalation by China that cannot occur again. China views the Philippines activating the MDT as an unacceptable action..This concern is compounded because of the news that the US military issued a warning order to the United States Marine Corps (USMC) rotational force in Australia to support the AFP in the resupply missions. China would view any active or passive assistance by the US military as an action that it would be extremely limited in countering. For example, the US military would not only deploy USMC units but other assets such as United States Navy (USN) vessels and United States Air Force (USAF) aircraft. The United States also has the ability to rapidly deploy units to the region to both assist the Philippines and act as a rapid reaction force if needed. China understands that they would have issues in responding to any potential US deployment because any reciprocal People's Liberation Army (PLA) deployment would increase tensions and possibly lead to an incident.