500 Days In The Jungle: Two Competing Personalities Prevent Philip Mehrtens’ Release

On February 7, 2023, a Pilatus PC-6 Porter aircraft operated by Susi Air arrived at Paro Airport in Nduga, West Papua. Shortly after landing, it lost contact with air traffic control. A search by Indonesian authorities revealed the plane burning on the grassy runway. The Indonesian military initially suspected that the military wing of the Free Papua Movement (OPM), the West Papua National Liberation Army (TPNPB), had taken the passengers and pilot hostage. OPM spokesperson Sebby Sambom confirmed the group's involvement, led by Egianus Kogoya, and stated that the passengers had been released but the pilot, New Zealand citizen Philip Mehrtens, would be held until the Indonesian government recognized West Papua's independence..Timeline of Mehrtens Captivity.More than 500 days have passed since Mehrtens was taken by the TPNPB. Despite numerous efforts and various channels to secure Mehrtens' release, he remains in captivity. Well documented in the media, the Mehrtens hostage situation underscores the persistent conflict, risks, and intricate negotiations between the Indonesian government and the Free Papua Movement. This article seeks to explore the intricacies and risks in getting Mehrtens home, analyzing both the TPNPB and TNI, their motivations, and tactics in dealing with a complex hostage situation..Following Mehrtens' capture, the Indonesian government, the TPNPB, and the New Zealand government used the media to make their demands. On February 14, the West Papua National Liberation Army (TPNPB), the armed wing of the OPM, released photos and videos of Mehrtens, reiterating their demand for West Papuan independence. Indonesian authorities confirmed they were working with local leaders to negotiate Mehrtens' release. The New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) also confirmed its involvement and requested privacy for Mehrtens' family..By late February 2023, Indonesian authorities claimed Kogoya had offered to exchange firearms and ammunition for Mehrtens' release, which they rejected. The following day, Benny Wenda, leader of the United Liberation Movement for West Papua (ULMWP), called for Mehrtens' release. Deakin University Professor Damien Kingsbury was authorized by the TPNPB to act as an intermediary with the New Zealand Government..On March 1, Indonesian Chief Security Minister Mahfud MD confirmed that security forces had located Kogoya's group but would refrain from actions endangering Mehrtens' life. However, on March 9, Kogoya's group rejected peace negotiations. The TPNPB-OPM released another video on March 10 showing Mehrtens urging foreign pilots to avoid flying in Highland Papua..By March 17, Kogoya's men had retreated into the Central Highlands. Indonesian authorities declined New Zealand's offer to facilitate low-level negotiations. On March 22, OPM chair Jeffrey Bomanak stated the group was willing to negotiate for Mehrtens' release, urging Indonesia not to launch military operations that could endanger his life. However, on March 23, Indonesian security forces launched an offensive against the TPNPB-OPM, leading to further violence..In November 2023, a video of Mehrtens surrounded by armed men claiming he had two months to live circulated, but the TPNPB stated it was outdated and that Mehrtens was alive and healthy. In December, TPNPB-OPM spokesperson Sebby Sambom revealed that their leaders had agreed to release Mehrtens in May, but Egianus Kogoya rejected this. By February 2024, New Zealand reiterated calls for Mehrtens' release..On April 12, 2024, Mehrtens appeared in a video appealing to TNI to stop airstrikes against various districts in the Nduga Regency. He highlighted that TNI operations, involving bombings from fighter jets, helicopters, and drones, have endangered his life as well as those of internally displaced persons. Mehrtens described the escalating danger to him and others in the area, and urged other countries to engage in diplomatic talks with the Indonesian government to halt the airstrikes. He remarked about the extensive destruction in the region and said that while he was previously in a safer area, the current situation had significantly worsened..Reasons For Mehrtens' Continued Captivity.But why has Mehrtens not been released, despite the TPNPB stating they intend to release him? There are several factors that likely contributed to Mehrtens' continued captivity that further risk his well-being, as well as a peaceful resolution to his ongoing captivity..It is likely there is little effective collaboration and coordination between the various elements that make up the Papua separatist movement. Further exacerbating this is the decentralized guerrilla command structure and the historical connection Egianus Kogoya has to the 1996 Mapenduma hostage crisis, where his father was killed by Indonesian forces. Based on public calls by senior TPNPB leadership figures Terryanus Satto and Sebby Sambom to release Mehrtens in February 2024, it is believed that the decision to release Mehrtens is Kogoya's alone..Kogoya would likely view the Indonesian government's involvement in any negotiations or releases negatively. With both cultures having a strong focus on saving face, it is believed that the Indonesians and TPNPB want a solution that provides both sides a perceived win in the release of Mehrtens. It is likely Indonesia requires involvement in the rescue to appear in control of the security situation in West Papua; however, this is incompatible with Egianus Kogoya and the wider TPNPB's requirements..It is also likely that ongoing clashes between TNI and the TPNPB are making it difficult for TPNPB to follow through with their promise to release Mehrtens. TNI has continued to pursue their military objectives in the Nduga region, frequently attacking the area where it is believed Mehrtens is being held. The airstrikes in April 2024 likely forced a delay of any planned release due to safety concerns. According to media reports, the Indonesian Army (TNI) has launched multiple rescue attempts that have resulted in multiple casualties, exacerbating TNI's frustrations..To add to the complexity of Mehrtens being released is the transition of power that is currently taking place in the Indonesian government. The current President of Indonesia, Joko Widodo, will be in the role until October 2024 and will be replaced by Minister of Defence and President-elect Prabowo Subianto. Subianto is a former TNI Special Forces commander who led the response to the infamous 1996 Mapenduma hostage crisis that resulted in the deaths of two NGO workers. While it is likely current President Widodo would like to see a peaceful resolution to Mehrtens' release to protect his legacy, it is hoped that Subianto recognizes the impact any heavy-handed military approach to Mehrtens' release might have on Indonesia's international reputation..Indonesian military media reported that between June and July 2024, Indonesia launched a large-scale mobilization of TNI personnel and equipment around Dogiyai, Deiyai, and Paniai provinces of West Papua. While the stated purpose for the increase in forces did not stipulate a possible rescue mission for Mehrtens, the amount of resources deployed by TNI would overwhelm the TPNPB forces, bringing a higher risk that Mehrtens would be caught in the crossfire of any rescue attempt..It is unlikely that the Indonesian government's response will be fairly reported in the media, and TNI is able to control the narrative around any possible rescue attempt. Indonesian state media or politically-affiliated media conglomerates account for about a third of all major media outlets..This crisis reveals a personal battle of two strong personalities. On one side, Egianus Kogoya, the strong rebel leader following in his father's footsteps, and on the other, Prabowo Subianto, the Indonesian military stalwart intent on providing the security long sought after in West Papua. Both leaders are connected by two hostage crises separated by 30 years and are determined to see their victory through. Unfortunately, the dynamic has resulted in Mehrtens spending over 500 days in the West Papuan jungle..Paper Dragon is an experienced insurance actuary based in Australasia specialising in analysing risks from China's expanding influence into Pacific nations. With a keen eye for detail and a growing understanding, Paper Dragon seeks to assist in safeguarding the interests of businesses and governments across the Pacific region.