Myanmar Coup Rumors Likely Due to Families Preparing to Flee Country

On August 13th, several reports said an alleged coup occurred against Junta leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. Other reports said that Hlaing fled to China to receive political asylum while his deputy fled the country to an unknown destination. However, other reports provided clarity to what happened on the day the alleged coup occurred..Alleged Coup Attempt.The coup allegations originated from former military officer and political activist Nay Myo Zin and were amplified by some news outlets and social media accounts. The allegation said that State Administration Council (SAC) Vice Chairman Vice-Senior General Soe Win fled Myanmar with SAC Chairman Hlaing, "reportedly seeking political asylum in China." Nay said the allegation was "based on several reports he received that indicated that a coup with the Tatmadaw, the military of Myanmar, has occurred against" Hlaing. Some of the accounts said that the coup leaders were Lieutenant General Nyo Saw and SAC Secretary Lieutenant General Aung Lin Dwe. Several of the accounts and news outlets said that they were unable to "independently verify the report.".Nay Myo Zin.Nay joined the Tatmadaw in 1994 and attended the Defense Services Academy, where he graduated and received his commission in 1998. He then joined the Myanmar Army as a Second Lieutenant in the infantry, where he served as a platoon commander in the No. 19 Infantry Battalion and Number 6 Infantry Regiment before promoting to Lieutenant. Nay was promoted to captain in various operations, where he served as a company commander in operations with the regiment. In 2005, Nay was a commanding officer of one of the No. 262 Infantry Battalion's companies located in Shan State when he voluntarily resigned from his captain's commission. Nay said he resigned his commission because he did not want to serve in a military dictatorship..He moved to Singapore from Myanmar and became a political activist in 2005. Nay began to blog and appear as a commentator for military personnel for the Democratic Voice of Burma radio weekly broadcast program. He then moved back to Myanmar in 2007 and likely participated in the Saffron Revolution. Beginning in 2013, Junta authorities arrested and imprisoned Nay several times for his anti-Junta activities. However, Nay also received a four-year prison sentence for "criticizing the military" during the National League of Democracy-led civilian government. In 2024, the Karenni State Interim Administration Council (KSIAC) appointed Nay as the Administrative Committee for Righteous Military Personnel's Director. Nay is reportedly living in a city in Karenni State under the KSIAC's control and is "carrying out the responsibilities of military resistance.".Elite Families Preparing to Flee Myanmar.On August 13th, other reports allegedly said that several families of high-ranking military officers are preparing to flee Myanmar. The families are reportedly fleeing because resistance groups gained significant momentum by capturing several Junta military bases and outposts near the cities of Mandalay and Pyin Oo Lwin, which are close to the capital city of Naypyitaw..The sources said that the Junta significantly increased security across the capital, likely in response to the recent rebel advances. Some sources also said that Hlaing and Soe remain in Naypyitaw despite the "rumors of the internal coup." On August 14th, several news outlets that originally posted that Hlaing and Soe fled Myanmar because of an internal coup updated their articles to say that Soe's wife fled the country..Junta Leader Promotes Lieutenant Generals.On August 17th, Hlaing promoted Lieutenant Generals Aung Lin Dwe, Nyo Saw, and Ye Win Oo to the rank of General. Aung, Nyo, and Ye will remain in their respective positions of SAC Secretary, SAC Joint Secretary, Department of Ministers and Cabinet, and Hlaing's senior adviser. Their promotions occurred amid rumors of an internal coup..While Coup Rumors are Unfounded, Hlaing's Worry About Loyalty of Generals Is Not.The coup rumors are likely the result of Nay changing the information about the families fleeing Myanmar to fit his anti-Junta narrative rather than produce accurate reporting. The Lieutenant Generals' promotions likely illustrate that Hlaing is now questioning his inner circle's loyalty. Nay likely obtained the original reports about the families preparing to flee Myanmar but changed certain points to better fit his objectives. The evidence for the rationale is based on Nay's political activism and how the two reports appeared on the same day. Nay is a longtime political activist who is working to overthrow the SAC and remove the military from power. He previously made statements on his social media accounts or to other outlets that cannot be verified or are later proven false. Reports about families fleeing Myanmar and the coup attempt appeared on the same day, indicating that Nay likely received reports about the former but changed it to the latter to fit his narrative..Hlaing's promotion of the three Lieutenant Generals is significant because it likely points to his increasing mistrust of his inner circle. Two of the Generals Hlaing promoted, Aung and Nyo, were implemented in the alleged August 13th coup. Their promotion indicates that Hlaing trusts the two military officers to promote them and allow them to continue to play significant roles in the SAC. Furthermore, the promotions prove that a coup did not occur because Hlaing would have ordered the arrest of Aung and Nyo. Hlaing could have promoted Aung, Nyo, and Ye to assure their continued loyalty to him and the Junta. Since October 2023, the Junta has lost significant amounts of equipment, personnel, and territory to the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA), which caused some discontent among senior military officers..This discontent magnified after the 3BHA launched Operation 1027 Part II, which saw the surrender of Northeastern Command in late July 2024. Hlaing's rationale for promoting Ye to the rank of general is likely to maintain loyalty among military officers in key SAC positions. For example, Ye is not associated with the coup that allegedly occurred on August 13th. However, Hlaing likely promoted Ye to maintain his loyalty because of his connections to Aung and Nyo. The SAC Chairman viewed the promotions as a safe move because he had enough support from other generals to hedge against the potential threat that Aung, Nyo, and Ye pose..The reports of the families fleeing the capital illustrate the concern that some within the ruling elite have regarding the military's diminishing combat capabilities. These fears increased after the 3BHA alliance launched Operation 1027 Part I in October 2023, which saw the Junta sustain significant battlefield losses. These losses only compounded when the 3BHA launched Operation 1027 Part II in late June 2024. While the Junta has increased the military presence in Naypyidaw since April, several officials are likely preparing for their families to leave Myanmar for other countries, such as Thailand or Malaysia. The officials know that the Junta will have difficulty repelling the 3BHA and other resistance groups from Naypyitaw if they capture Mandalay and Pyin Oo Lwin. The exodus of the families will have a devastating impact on the military officers' morale, which Hlaing would find difficult to overcome with promotions.