Ukraine has targeted the Armavir early warning radar station in Krasnodar Krai, southern Russia, reportedly using drones (Geo: 44.9251, 40.9838). Photos show damage to both of the radars located at the facility.
The effects of the strike can lead into two primary viewpoints:
1. The targeting and damaging of the facility is expected to have little impact on operations in Ukraine, as the radars are positioned to primarily cover ballistic missile threats coming from the south towards the Middle East.
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- The Radars are meant to detect ballistic missiles, not low altitude airborne threats like drones or air-launched missiles. Most Ukrainian strike capabilities would not be detected.
- While the station does have limited coverage of Crimea and the Black Sea, its detection ability is weak as these areas sit in the far edges of its area coverage.
- The targeting could be viewed as a way to help with ATACMS tactical ballistic missile strikes against Crimea, but detection would be done by local air defenses.
2. The targeting and damaging of the facility has degraded Russia’s ability to detect and respond to incoming nuclear threats.
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- If Russia accuses the United States of aiding in the strikes, this could see further escalation with the west as an attack against Russia’s ability to defend itself.
- Russian military doctrine allows for the possible use of unclear weapons in response to attacks that disrupt its nuclear forces’ ability to respond to threats (although this would be very unlikely in this scenario).
In short, the strike could provide some tactical benefit to Ukraine, however, it will be limited. The strikes could see further escalation between Russia and western powers backing Ukraine, as the targeting of the station could be framed as a threat against Russia’s ability to protect itself from nuclear threats.
