Since the beginning of the current war in Ukraine, many have been wondering if, or for some, when, Belarus would be joining the war on Russia’s side. Months ago, pictures arose of Lukashenka with plans for an invasion of Odessa, and over the course of the war Russian military equipment has been flowing steadily into Belarus.

Yesterday the Ukrainian government released an intelligence brief in which they state they believe Russia will attempt to launch a series of « artificially provoked man-made disasters », which they called terrorist attacks. They allege several critical infrastructures will be hit, with the Ostrovets nuclear plant being the primary target.

Built in 2020, the Ostrovets plant has received complaints from the EU due to the brashness it was built. It does not comply with safety or infrastructural standards, and several incidents have already taken place there over the past two years.

Ukraine alleges that these false-flags will be to not only expedite Belarus’s entry into the war, but also push public opinion toward Russia’s side. In Belarus there has been widespread sabotage, often of railways, in order to hamper Russian military efforts. If you may remember, 2 years ago hundreds of thousands of Belarusians protested against Lukashenka, so swaying public opinion will be a big job ahead.

Ukraine’s intelligence brief says it believes the attacks will be blamed on citizens of NATO countries that are disguised in Belarusian military uniforms. Belarus’s KDB and military are already on high alert.

Ukraine does not give a timeline for the attacks. Only that they will take place in the « near future ». Belarus has only been notified, and the crisis is to be entirely done by Russia, they say.

Belarus’s entry would be a massive escalation of the war, and a huge problem for Ukraine. In the opening days of the war, Russian troops, originating from Belarus, got very close to Kyiv.

-Written by GoodHistory contributor Sébastien G