Last Wednesday on January 25, the Turkish container vessel “Tuzla” and general cargo vessel “Ferahnaz” were both struck by missiles while docked in the Ukrainian port of Kherson. Both vessels had been stuck in port since the start of the Russian invasion and have not left since they are not included in the grain deal that allows for vessel passage in the Black Sea. No casualties were reported on either ship as they weren’t manned at the time, but the blasts caused damage to their hulls and started fires onboard.
?Kherson liman?nda, Tuzla, Ferahnaz isimli Türk gemisi vuruldu. Savunma Bakanl??? ve armatörler bölgede mahsur kalan 12 Türk gemisinin kurtar?lmas? için harekete geçti. pic.twitter.com/FHT6cVh8nO
— Conflict (@ConflictTR) January 25, 2023
While suspected to be hit by Russian forces, this was confirmed in the days following the strikes due to a video circulating around Telegram and Twitter.
? ???, ??????????, ? ???? ? ???????? – ??????? ?????? ?? ???? ?? ??????????? ????? ???? ???? ????, ????? ????? ???? ??? ?????? https://t.co/6OVw300hgV #?????? #warcrimes #RussianUkrainianWar #???? #??? https://t.co/GAYSoYEHiF pic.twitter.com/qfyYRuLowh
— Necro Mancer (@666_mancer) January 29, 2023
In the footage, Russian soldiers can be seen firing two 9M111M Fagot-M ATGMs, geolocated to an inlet directly across the Dnipro River from where the two Turkish vessels were docked (46.6215090, 32.6308825). The location of the vessels can also be confirmed by their location on publicly available automatic identification system (AIS) data, which also puts them directly across the inlet.
What does this mean? Nothing in the grand scheme of things, but it does highlight how Ukrainian and Russian forces are only separated by a body of water. Direct military operations over the Dnipro River have been very limited as any attempts by both sides for a full scale amphibious assault would likely be met with immediate artillery fire, which we saw last week with a Ukrainian operation targeting a Russian command post along the river bank. With the two crossing points over the river having been destroyed, any attempt by Ukraine to bring military equipment over for sustained fighting would have to be done so on ferries or pontoon bridges, which are easy targets for artillery fire. Ukrainian forces would also have to face off against entrenched Russian positions along the river, which have been built up for months. At this time, it does not appear that Russian forces have any plans to make direct moves over the river again as they do not have air superiority over the area and would run into the same issue with crossing as I stated previously. It does not appear that there will be any major offensives or counter offensives in Kherson for the time being, but we will likely see continued small-scale amphibious operations by the Ukrainians and continued strikes and shelling by Russian forces.
