On Thursday, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces incorrectly reported that Russian forces had left the key city of Nova Kakhovka, which is situated on the left bank of the Dnipro River and is home to the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant.
The Ukrainian military quickly revised its statement, tweeting out that “The occupiers are still temporarily in Nova Kakhovka. Information about the alleged withdrawal of the enemy from this settlement was made public as a result of incorrect use of available data. However, we will definitely free Nova Kakhovka as well.”
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Since Ukraine’s counter offensive last fall, the Kherson frontline has been marked by the Dnipro River, with Ukrainian forces controlling the right bank while Russian forces control the left bank. Over the past several months, we have seen frequent shelling from both sides over the river, as well as limited amphibious operations by Ukrainian special forces targeting Russian positions along the river bank. Nova Kakhovka, situated upriver, has seen constant fighting as Russian forces control the dam and use it as cover when fighting Ukrainian forces across the river in Kozats’ke.
Direct military operations over the Dnipro River have been very limited as any attempts by both sides for a full scale amphibious assault would likely be met with immediate artillery fire. With the two main crossing points over the river having been destroyed, any attempt by Ukraine to bring military equipment over for sustained fighting would have to be done so on ferries or pontoon bridges, which are easy targets for artillery fire. The other option for Ukraine would be an offensive south from Zaporizhzhia front. Ukrainian forces would also have to face off against entrenched Russian positions along the river, which have been built up for months.
At this time, it does not appear that Russian forces have any plans to make direct moves over the river again as they do not have air superiority over the area and would run into the same issues with crossing as I stated previously. It does not appear that there will be any major offensives or counter offensives in Kherson for the time being, but we will likely see continued small-scale amphibious operations by the Ukrainians and continued strikes and shelling by Russian forces.
