After the June 23rd Wagner rebellion, Ukrainian leaders are sounding off that the country is now under even greater threat from a renewed incursion from Belarus. These concerns extend from dozens of open source reports indicating movement of Wagner personnel and equipment to Belarus. Local sources in Belarus report that three main camps will be established for Wagner troops in Belarus for the goal of “training Belarusian troops”, especially in Western and Southern Belarus.
On June 28th, Belarusian opposition leader Tsikhanouskaya met with European Council President Michel to discuss the sudden influx of hundreds, if not thousands of Wagner troops into Belarus, as well as Russian nuclear weapons.
On June 29th, western media began reporting that abandoned Belarusian military sites in Tsel and Osipovichi were being reconstituted with personnel shelters and other military supplies. For example, more than 6500 new tents were spotted between both sites in Southern Belarus.
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Following these announcements, Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-In-Chief was the first to publicly sound off on Wagner. He told press that he fears Wagner relocations to Southern Belarus represents a very real fear.
At 0747 EST today, Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that fortifications and troop formations in Northern Ukraine would be reinforced. However, by 1007 EST, Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander Lieutenant General Nayev also claimed that while the overall potential of threat from Belarus May increase, there is no direct threat to the troop formations under his command in Northern Ukraine.
After the exile of Prighozin to Ukraine, more than 30,000 Wagner troops were most likely absorbed into the Russian Ministry of Defense, potentially allowing for a significant relocation of troops and equipment to Ukraine lightly defended Northern flank.
