While China accepted Karimi’s credentials as ambassador, the country will likely proceed cautiously towards any formal recognition. The reason why is due to China not being perceived as supporting the Taliban (an Islamic fundamentalist group), considering its treatment towards the Uyghur Muslim minority in Xinjiang. For example, the Taliban’s white flag is absent in photographs showing Karimi with Chinese Leader Xi Jinping, likely indicating that Chinese censors photoshopped it out of them before publishing them.
Economic Interests at Play:
Since the withdrawal of international forces and the Taliban takeover in August 2021, China, albeit cautiously, has sought to tap into Afghanistan’s economic potential, laying the foundation for Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) expansion into the country through trade and investments, as well as exploiting the vast natural resources the country has to offer, such as oil, gas, copper, gold, lithium, and other rare earth metals, which are worth an estimated $1 trillion.
Momentum picked up in August 2022 with an array of meetings was held in Kabul between Taliban and Chinese officials to expand economic and diplomatic cooperation. The most prominent was that of China’s Special Envoy for Afghan Affairs, Yue Xiaoyong, meeting with Amir Khan Muttaqi, the acting Taliban Minister of Foreign Affairs.
The two stressed economic development, with the IEA’s Arg Palace X account posting that Xiaoyong said “China wants good governance in Afghanistan, Chinese investors and companies will be encouraged to invest in Afghanistan. Visas are given to Afghan businessmen, Chinese flights to Afghanistan are starting and we want to increase Chinese imports to Afghanistan.”
By January 2023, the Taliban signed a 25 year deal with China’s state-owned Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Company to pump oil in the Amu Sea basin, marking the group’s first international contract since they took over the country.
While signing the deal, Chinese Ambassador to Kabul Wang Yu stated that “The Amu Darya oil contract is an important project between China and Afghanistan”
This was paired with increased interest by the Taliban in creating a trade route with China and connecting Afghanistan to the BRI, which Taliban deputy Minister of Economy Abdul Latif Nazari noted that “The connection of Afghanistan with the One Belt One Road initiatives or Silk Road benefits Afghan stability and development.”
The Wakhan Corridor has also been an area of interest between the Taliban and China, with Nooruddin Azizi, the Taliban Minister of Industry and Commerce, saying that it would “increase the level of trade between the two countries and become a reliable route for the transit of goods,” according to TOLOnews.
On January 15, a dirt road was completed through the corridor, which, in its current state, cannot support significant commerce. Likewise, the region lacks customs facilities or other critical road infrastructure for any meaningful operations, meaning that there will not be any economic value in the near future.
China Moves Forward Cautiously:
Despite all this, China is still weary in shifting its BRI focus to Afghanistan as it continues to face security threats from other militant groups operating in the country, such as Uyghur extremists and the Islamic State. For the Taliban, these economic endeavors can largely be seen as attempts to show China and other regional powers that it can function as a governing body as it seeks more formal recognition globally. For China, the Taliban must prove it can sustain security, especially as it sees areas around the Wakhan Corridor as a hotbed for militant activity.
