What Happened:
Ukraine invited China’s Xi Jinping to a peace summit in Switzerland. Although no time or date has been officially announced, Ukraine wanted China to participate “at the highest level,” according to Ukrainian President Voldymyr Zelensky.
The war in Ukraine is nearing its second anniversary, and the fighting has remained bloody. Zelensky hopes that China will attend the summit and has urged many of the other attending bodies to encourage them.
The Details:
China and Russia announced a “no limits” partnership right before the invasion of Ukraine, adding emphasis to China’s having not condemned the invasion yet. However, the Chinese have offered to negotiate a peace deal in the interest of protecting Ukraine’s borders.
This peace conference comes as Western nations grow war-weary, especially after the failed counteroffensive, which saw very little breakthrough for the Ukrainians. Fearing a loss in support, it seems Ukraine is trying to shift its focus towards peace rather than continuing to gain territory.
They are hoping to include the full return of Ukrainian land, all prisoners of war exchanged, and protections on energy and food.
China has previously detailed a 12-point peace plan that involved “abandoning the Cold War mentality” and “resuming peace talks”. The U.S. warned Ukraine and its European allies to be skeptical of any Chinese involvement in a peace deal.
However, Ukraine has shown a willingness to involve them.
China hasn’t responded to the requests yet, but it’s likely that when a time and date are set, they will.
What’s Next:
Although much is still unknown about China’s full intentions regarding the peace conference, most analysts believe they will likely align themselves with Russian interests. They have avoided being overly critical of Russia’s invasion since the start, while still calling for peace from both sides. They have also increased their purchases of natural gas and energy from the Russians despite Western sanctions. Going forward, it seems China will have to balance its interests with Russia’s.
Ukraine will likely seek to end the war as support seems to be draining from it’s European allies and the U.S. is stonewalled in trying to pass further military aid. Zelensky and his allies have mentioned a 10-point peace plan, but some are skeptical of Russia’s acceptance, given the repeated failed attempts at peace talks in the past.