General Atomics spokesman C. Mark Brinkley has told Forbes that the company is potentially preparing to send an unspecified number of MQ-9 Reaper drones to Ukraine’s military, stating that “We have aircraft available now for immediate transfer. With support from the U.S. government, those aircraft could be in the hands of Ukrainian military pilots in a matter of days.” This comes as Ukrainian officials reportedly met with General Atomics two weeks ago to discuss buying the combat drones. Forbes went on to speculate that “it is unlikely that such talks between Ukraine and a U.S. defense contractor would have happened without a green light from the Biden administration.” There hasn’t been any other indications from the US government or General Atomics that such a deal will even happen.

“In the past, we worked with the U.S. government to send MQ-9 Reapers to a partner nation in less than 30 days,” Brinkley added. “The logistics footprint could be minimal, also much less than what people associate with American UAS logistics footprints.”

He also went on to state that “In a crisis such as this, rapid training and deployment efforts could radically reduce those estimates and footprints,“ adding “Ukraine has skilled military pilots familiar with UAV operations who are motivated to defend and protect their homes. We are not starting from scratch.”

Reapers have long range and high altitude endurance, being able to carry out strikes or ISR missions within a range of about 1,200 miles with a 27 hour flight time. As for armament or where these drones will be stationed, it is unknown. Ukraine has also regularly used Bayraktar TB2 drones to target Russian logistics convoys, command posts, and frontline positions throughout the conflict. If such a deal is even made, it will almost certainly add to the tensions between the US and Russia. The drones would also be a key target for Russia if downed, as they could research the wreckage to find vulnerabilities or even improve their own unmanned systems.

The deployment of Reapers over Ukraine to counter Russian forces amid their renewed offensive on Donbas could be a game changer as it would greatly extend Ukraine’s combat capabilities. The battle for Donbas will likely decide the fate of this war. Russia’s focus on Donbas came amid their failure to capture the capital of Kyiv, where advances were stalled in Irpin, Bucha, Hostomel, and Brovary for weeks. The decision to withdraw their forces from the north coincided with a shift in strategic focus towards Donbas and the eastern frontlines. According to Russia, the second phase of the invasion was to “liberate” the entirety of Donbas. In the eyes of the West, this was a strategic reframing of the invasion to compensate for tactical failures to the north. With all eyes on Donbas, Russia spent the past few weeks regrouping, rearming, and redeploying its forces to the east to bolster operations there. There are also indications that several new Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) have been positioned for reinforcements.

For Russia, the complete capture of Donbas can lend itself several key advantages. One is that it can be a significant piece of leverage during negotiations with Ukraine where they can try to force a concession of the industrial rich region. This also plays into Russia’s want for a land bridge to Crimea, which would offer significant military and economic value around the Black Sea. Donbas is also important to Russian identity, as it is a predominantly Russian speaking region where large portions of the populace identify as Russian. What is probably the most important aspect is that they can use the capture of Donbas as a major victory in the conflict, oding back to their original claims of only supporting the defense of the sepratist DPR and LPR, which declared independence from Ukraine before the outbreak of the invasion. The timeframe for Russia to capture Donbas is believed to be small as they hope to have it under their control by May 9, Victory Day. A failure to capture the region and/or prolonged fighting will likely strike a blow to their war efforts, which may potentially stagnate fighting and divide the country or even force a complete withdrawal.